[November 21] Tropical Depression Sixteen Forms – A Threat to Nicaragua and Costa Rica

   Posted by Levi at 3:18pm on November 21, 2016  - Leave a comment

Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed in the SW Caribbean. Convection around the circulation is relatively modest at the moment, perhaps due to dry, cool air draining toward the system from the north, which may limit TD16 to only slow intensification for a couple of days. Thereafter, the environment may improve, and TD16 could intensify more quickly, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to become a hurricane by Thursday. A strong steering ridge to the north will likely eventually push TD16 westward toward Nicaragua or Costa Rica, but it will be slow to do so, giving TD16 a few days over water to strengthen. Thus, interests in Central America in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should pay close attention to this system.


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[Monday] Subtropical Development Possible this Week Between Bahamas and Bermuda – No Immediate Threat

   Posted by Levi at 12:47pm on October 17, 2016  - 1 comment

An upper-level trough east of Florida is generating a region of disturbed weather near and east of the southeastern Bahamas. Such a system could gradually organize into a subtropical low between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the course of this week, but development would be slow to occur. The system poses no immediate threat, but wet weather could continue to impact portions of the Bahamas over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical storm over the next 2 days, and 50% over the next 5 days.


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Nicole Continues to Strengthen – Direct Hit to Bermuda Likely on Thursday

   Posted by Levi at 1:23pm on October 12, 2016  - 3 comments

Hurricane Nicole has continued to strengthen since yesterday, with winds now up to 90-100 mph according to the latest recon data. Nicole is expected to make what could be a direct hit on Bermuda near midday Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Wind shear will be increasing as Nicole approaches Bermuda, but some additional strengthening is possible before the hurricane arrives. Please consult the National Hurricane Center and the Bermuda Weather Service for the latest information.


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