Invest 97L Likely to Develop While Approaching Windward Islands on Wednesday

   Posted by Levi at 4:14pm on September 25, 2016  - 11 comments


Karl Strengthening – Impacts to Bermuda Friday Night and Saturday Morning

   Posted by Levi at 12:11pm on September 23, 2016  - 2 comments

Tropical Storm Karl has begun to strengthen this morning, as the storm’s circulation has now become more aligned with its convection. It may not take long for Karl to approach hurricane strength now that intensification has begun. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda, and hurricane conditions could be possible if Karl continues strengthening and passes close enough to the island early Saturday morning. At the moment, Karl is expected to pass about 100 km southeast of Bermuda, but even small changes in its track could bring it closer. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the island sometime tonight.


Karl Remains Weak, but Expected to Strengthen Soon

   Posted by Levi at 1:56pm on September 22, 2016  - 4 comments

Tropical Depression Karl remains weak due to southerly wind shear this morning. Convection has become more organized on the north side of the circulation, but the low-level center remains partially exposed on the south side. Shear is expected to lighten somewhat over the next couple of days and some strengthening is likely to occur as Karl turns northward toward Bermuda. Karl is expected to pass just southeast of Bermuda late Friday and early Saturday while strengthening. This track forecast has high confidence, but even slight shifts in track could change the impacts to Bermuda, and details will be difficult to know until Friday. After passing by Bermuda, Karl will accelerate northeastward and become extratropical.


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