Hints at a Potential Early Start to the EPAC or Atlantic Hurricane Season This Year

   Posted by Levi at 11:07pm on May 7, 2013



15 comments

   

Comments

  • Boyroy says:

    Great job Levi, as always. Keep up the good work. Your analysis is very informative and understandable.

    Thanks again,
    Roy

  • RevInFL says:

    Nicely explained for those of us still learning. Thanks for keeping us posted.

  • Tucker says:

    Thanks for the update Levi. Great job with the graphics and explanation’s. I see in your video where you talk about the May forecast when do you think it will be updated, also what area’s do you believe in the U.S. are at most risk of a potential hit, once again thanks for all your hard work and I hope your doing well in school.

    • Levi says:

      ECMWF forecast should be out May 15th, UKMET and NMME a little before that (varies), and the JMA a little after (also varies).

      I talked about this a bit in my March outlook. I think this is another healthy Cape Verde season which can threaten the eastern seaboard and eastern Caribbean islands more than other areas. However, if the Cape Verde season ends up weaker than forecasted, the rest of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico can really open up in a year like this.

  • Kim Carmichael says:

    Thanks Levi! Always look forward to your updates. Will be keeping my eyes open being that I live on the gulf coast. Nine years ago this sept we where it by Ivan and haven’t forgotten that one,have grown up here and have weatherd a lot of storms but Ivan was the worst.Keep up the great job of keeping us informed! And hope your schooling is going well and your staying warm.

  • Mech 70002 says:

    Impressive work. You’ve been calling this for a while, and now it looks like it’s shaping up just like you predicted. You’re prediction of 150% ACE is a bit ominous. Combine that with above average land-falling canes, (and more southern tracks into GOMEX) this season could be a tough one on my future insurance rates.

    I’m installing new storm shutters this month. It looks like they will surely get a workout during this their inaugural season.

    Please keep up the good work, and press hard on your studies. You’re too good for government service, seriously. The politics and bureaucracy will dull your talents. Hold out for a spot with a good private weather firm, or perhaps as an individual professional consultant. You’ll be less incumbered by administrative types and produce better more valued work. (You’ll make more $$ as a side benefit…) You will be much happier/satisfied in your career. Don’t take my word for it though. Talk to others about this as you get closer to graduation.

    Again, thanks for all the hard work. Please keep it up, we’ll all need your input this season.

  • James says:

    Hello Levi! I have been watching you for some time now I think since 2011 always lurking never posting. you are the one that got me really interested in hurricane forecast. When I watched a video you did in 2011 i had no clue at all what it is that you was talking about. Mjo, gfs, cmc ,euro which i thought was money lol but you seemed to know what you was talking about and you seemed to break things down for simple poeple like myself lol. I am not a educated man but you made me wanna learn more about weather and how it works. Now to give you some back ground on me i own a company called Hensley Debris Removal. Just getting started on my own this year. I have done storm work since 2005 starting with Hurricane Rita. I operate eqipment that assist in debris removal after hurricanes tornadoes and ice storms. I have seen horriable things in my now 8 years of doing this kind of work Joplin MO maybe the worst i have seen. Poeple always ask me why do you get excited when a hurricane is going to hit America? isn’t it wrong? well i do get excited because of the money that i make i never wish for anyone to be hurt and i never wish for a hurricane anywhere but it happens and there is nothing i can do about it if it does happen. But I do aid the the recovery efforts after a storm and i have had lots of poeple on these jobs thank me offer me water cookies cake beer lol ect. But i wanted to understand more about my job. i wanted to know how all this happens in detail. thank god for google lol. i became a member of a weather forum.. I engaged with conversation with other weather nerds lol like myself. The pro mets in the fourm gave me the tools and pointed me in the right direction in weather basics. I then became addicted sometimes staying up for 2 days waiting for new model runs sat pics nhc updates ect. I learned how to look at weather maps and understand them or at least the basics of understanding them. This addiction to weather that i have has caused problems with me and the wife lol she gets so mad cause i will sit infront of the computer four hours and hours forgetting to eat,take out trash fix things that need to be fix and yes even the alone time with the wife lol. I would rather watch a weather system than have sex with my wife lmao. now when i watch you i know what you’re talking about and sometimes i am way ahead of you. i get angry with you sometimes like last year when you didn’t post much but i also understand that you have a life outside of this. i yell at you often when i think your wrong but then it turns out that your right. i want you to know levi that you have inspired me to learn. I am a low educated red neck from north east Texas and i had almost no computer skills but watching you made me thirst for knowledge. i wanted to know what in the hell you was talking about!! ok so anyways enough about all of that i wanna talk weather… I am a big follower of the gfs and the 00z GFS seeems to be supporting Caribbean action starting May 22ish. This MJO wave is being enhanced by westerlies that have recently been aided by the mountain torque events (+AAM). Two things usually happens as a result, first is the wave is stronger than what the models predicted a couple of weeks ago and second the MJO is very likely to continue its progression into the western hemisphere instead of weakening once it crosses the Pacific into the Americas as it usually does due to these enhanced westerlies as currently being forecasted by the globals. I am just not sure why, but something about the particularly strong 200mb wind flow just seem “off”. I think more than anything, I just don’t seem to recollect any recent past Spring seasons as having these winds so consistently spanning what seems like the entire Gulf region, across the Greater Antilles and Caribbean, and practically continuing almost all the way to Africa. Even during prior El Nino years we would see quite strong Westerlies, but strong as this upper shear seemed to be, those winds would moderate in intensity as that flow started exiting the Caribbean. I believe in those years with “El Nino” originating Westerlies, those winds would eventually interact with either an East Coast trough/TUTT condition, or maybe an oscillating mid-Atlantic trough that seemed persistently anchored in the W. Central Atlantic. Either way, even under those hostile upper air circumstances there would seem to be some downstream difluent conditions where those Westerlies eventually were shunted more pole-ward and an outflow channel would be created (if an active tropical wave were in the area to take advantage).I very well realize that this is early May, but it just seems odd to me that the present upper level winds seem almost trapped within the sub-tropics latitudes and at present have nowhere else to go but as “East as far as the eye can see”. More than likely this deviant flow will just give way to the eventual Easterly surge of ridging that would typically build Westward over the summer. Anyway you look at it though, I just cant see anything near term other than hostile wind shear conditions. These persistent upper air conditions do not look to change anytime in the foreseeable future. So if that were the case, it just wouldn’t seem to matter what “alphabet soup” might be projected to surge in “our side of the bowl”. These hostile conditions would seem to disrupt tropical genesis from occurring. While a late May or early June depression or even weak storm could well occur, I would bet against it at least until it was evident that some low latitude ridging was occurring somewhere. What are you thoughts on this? And what kind of true affect will the mjo have on these winds. Thanks Levi and I hope to hear from you.

    • Levi says:

      Well, I don’t think the upper winds over the Atlantic have been very unusual. In fact, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has averaged below normal since mid-February.

      Also, the convection associated with the MJO is very capable of pushing the subtropical jet far enough north to allow development in the Caribbean in late May and early June. The GFS ensemble mean shows a large negative wind shear anomaly there in 2 weeks due to that process. Whether a storm actually forms there is another question.

  • James says:

    Still so much for me to learn Levi and thank you for your insight.

  • Horacio Ibarra says:

    Hi Levi..my question is fairly simple…. Will southern Texas be a target for this upcoming Hurricane Season ? Are the factors more favorable than our last season ?

    thanks

    • Levi says:

      Well, indications are that this year will again be one of abnormal heat for the southwest and south-central U.S.. If this pans out, it will mean a ridge that tends to block storms that might move towards Texas, much the same as recent years. If, however, the summer starts out cooler in Texas, there may be more risk than recently. This will be one thing to monitor during the early hurricane season to see how the “death ridge” sets up.

  • Hondo's Girl says:

    Hi Levi. Great forecast and analysis. Thanks so much for making all of the intricate pieces of the tropical weather puzzle come together for us novices. I have lived all my life along the Northern Gulf Coast — but have never understood the “why” behind active or non-active season. Your ability to talk about all of these little pieces and how they are linked, in a way that a lay person can understand, is what sets you apart from all the rest. Keep up the great work — we really appreciate your efforts.

  • nick says:

    hi levi im in the uk but my parents are in florida just wondering if you think the storms will pass and move north like recent seasons or are they more of a threat this season many thanks

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