[Thursday Evening] Storm Forming in Gulf of Mexico; Storm Surge Flooding Threat to Western Florida

[Monday Evening] Jerry Passing Close to Bermuda; Karen Weak and Approaching Puerto Rico

[Thursday Evening] Jerry Strengthening but Expected to Pass North of Caribbean

Note: apologies for fewer videos than usual – my schedule has been too busy in recent weeks. In the event of a major land threat in the Atlantic, I will do my best to post some. Remember that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for more frequent updates on active storms.

Hurricane Jerry has strengthened quickly today within a window of slightly lower shear. Small storms are prone to rapid changes in intensity, and Jerry could continue intensifying tonight. However, shear will increase substantially on Friday, and Jerry is likely to weaken Friday and Saturday. The storm is expected to track well north of the Caribbean islands, though a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Leewards. Jerry could be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, though per usual, uncertainty is large that far in advance.