Thanks, Levi, for another informative, thought provoking post.
It will be interesting to see how the tropical season shapes up in light of the factors you mentioned!
Thanks Levi for another great post. Has there been statistical analysis on the relationship between the Positive AMO, multi-year La Nina analogs and frequency of hurricanes, or is there more to it than that? Do the computer generated models work just off of current weather measurements or do they also utilize analog year data?
I don’t know what kind of analysis other people have done. I just look at whatever analogs I think will be helpful in improving a forecast.
No model that I know of incorporates historical analogs into their actual forecasts. The closest to that would be the ESRL experimental ensemble forecasts based off of an old GFS version, which allows corrections to be made based on knowledge of how the model has performed in the past.
In exploring this topic further, I ran into Doc Weather http://docweather.com/2/list/. Is this method similar to what you are doing?
Thanks Levi! Crazy indeed. Hoping to get some rain out of it.
I find your site extremely interesting and will check it for info regularly. Last June’s visit to the family house on Man-O-War Cay felt like August. Sounds like this year’s June 2012 trip may be a bit more comfortable, although the snorkeling may not be as good due to Irene’s eye coming so near last season.
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