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August 2012
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Ernesto to Remain Weak for Now, then Strengthen Later; Long-term Track Still Uncertain

   Posted by Levi at 6:18pm on August 3, 2012

Ernesto has formed, and is now moving into the eastern Caribbean after passing the Antilles Islands last night. Overall organization of the system has not changed, with limited thunderstorm coverage over a tight but weak circulation. Dry air being entrained from the west is inhibiting Ernesto, and the storm is also now embedded in a fast 20mph+ trade wind flow that is unfavorable for the intensification of the circulation. This will likely limit Ernesto to weak-moderate tropical storm intensity until it makes it to the longitude of Jamaica, at which point the trade winds slow down, and upper-level ridging will likely make the environment quite conducive for intensification. Ernesto may even open up into an open wave without westerlies on the southern side for a time before then, but should remain robust and redevelop a closed circulation in the western Caribbean if it does.

The future track of Ernesto largely depends on his intensity in the western Caribbean, as the weakness in the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will not be strong enough to pick up a weakling system, but would likely pick up a hurricane and bring it north of 25N. While Ernesto should start strengthening once to 75W, if he starts off very weak then he may not have the time to strengthen enough to move into the weakness and encroach upon the northwest Gulf of Mexico, but instead could get re-caught by the Texas ridge and move WNW across the Yucatan and then into the northern half of Mexico in the western gulf. This is the solution adopted by the ECMWF over the last couple days, and more recently the latest GFS and CMC runs. The other models still go to the north with a stronger system, along with the NHC. It is starting to seem a bit more likely that Ernesto hits the Yucatan and then moves into the Bay of Campeche, given that the environment doesn’t seem to support strengthening until west of Jamaica. The NHC shows Ernesto strengthening into a hurricane near Jamaica, a solution I find less likely given the strong trade winds and dry air ahead of Ernesto right now.

Overall, Ernesto’s intensity in the western Caribbean will largely determine whether he becomes a problem for the United States down the road. The favorable conditions in the western Caribbean mean that Ernesto will likely become a significant problem for central America even if the shorter, southerly route is taken with less time over water. These possibilities are still 5-8 days out so nothing can be guaranteed yet, and interests in the western Caribbean and along the gulf coast should monitor Ernesto over the coming days.

We shall see what happens!


15 comments

   

Comments

  • Robert says:

    I came across your site via http://www.spaghettimodels.com in June and have found your videos to be very informative and insightful. You have a great voice and use helpful visual aids in the vids…the results are of professional quality IMO. Consider me a fan and keep up the great work!

  • Zach says:

    I concur.

  • Scott says:

    Having trouble with the video…….anyone else?

  • Gary Z says:

    Hey Levi,
    You have your own blog, why argue with those idiots on Masters comments?
    Most of them know Nothing…just hoping for disasters.

    • Levi says:

      I live in a land barren of meteorologists here in Alaska. I have to talk on the forums or I go crazy. Unfortunately, some always have to turn good debates into hostile arguments, and going against the blog consensus warrants the death penalty.

      • GeorgiaStormz says:

        Lol about going against consensus…some people really do make arguments..and there who treat you as a god with unfallible forecasts…Its funny how the blog operates….
        I stay out of any drama..

        btw Gary Z who are you?

        • Alex says:

          can’t wait till you post your weekend oucrcance. It’s kind of like a soap opera cliff hanger. I was glad to know that your step-dad contacted you again. I’m glad he has no anger towards you as I’m sure he does toward me. I’ve missed talking to you these past few days, but I am aware how important it is that you pass this test. Just believe in yourself and continue your studies with notes they do help. But above all ask our good LORD to give you wisdom and courage. Remember I love u so very much and to me you’re perfect in every way. Good night and GOD bless you always Mom

      • Ptincesse says:

        well gues what son..my Somalian Clan is the most numerous, and most known, and scfeuscul and have a great reputation for welcomeing MY south-Somalian hawiye and Somali raxanweyn brothas n sistas into Puntland, my land i am REER Bari son, and my tribe subclan the Cali Jibrahiil from the D Block, Daarood side.. u understand.. so dont even go there because i am a Fullblood somalian D-Block puntland Somali..so dont get things twisted brother!!

  • Tony Stone says:

    I came across your site via wunderground. I concur with the above posters re: accuracy and quality. I am a Yacht Captain preparing to deliver a yacht to the Western Caribbean in the early part of peak storm season and will be utilizing your data as we make the Go or No-Go decision in the next couple of days. Keep up the great work.

  • Mike says:

    Levi, I haven’t seen anybody comment recently on the fact that Ernesto continues to milk the ITCZ and the South American continent for moisture all day long. Giving it that bloated big storm look, while the actual circulation is a minor little one off in the leading edge of the mass. Perhaps I have missed any discussion about this as I do follow all the posts on Master’s threads. When will this behavior stop ?

    • Levi says:

      Ernesto is pulling moisture from the Caribbean waters, not South America. SA is a source of dry air for eastern Caribbean systems, and is always detrimental. Ernesto has legitimately strengthened today, above what I expected. We will see if the the worst part of the Caribbean tomorrow has any effect on him.

    • Rogerio says:

      Well I am a nasab Somali and can count my lineage back a few ceturnies. My extended family currently live in the Somali desert regions of Mudug and Ogaden , so If im not fullblooded Somali I don’t know who is. As for Somalis not all being the same, yes I agree, the only non Somalis who adopted my culture are the Barwanis, Hamaris and Bantus but they are still my brothers. The rest of the 5 clans are Somali!

  • Mike says:

    “…as I DON’T follow all the posts…”

  • duff says:

    I dont understand how the European and Gfs can be taken even slightly serious, they consistantly show the pressure of earnesto much higher than it actually IS. They initalize with a 1009 mb storm and fluctuate only a mb or 2 before the Yucatan. I thought Earnesto was a 1004-1002/1 mb system.with talk of intensification. I just dont see how the models dont see what is actually HAPPENING right now. The storm is already stronger than any of their forcasts had it for the next several days. Please let me know how you see it, Levi
    Duff.

    • Pam says:

      Prof. Di Mauro suggestion or teorhy (or whatelse we may call it) is the classical solution for the Origin of Life questio . However, the probability of Di Mauro`s scheme to evolve is about 0.00000000000 . , and this has been already evaluated if my memories are still good, but no proof came out properly.As for Herman Rutner one has a more reliable road for foreseeing a solution for this unbelievably hermetic problem.I think one needs a project, a physical or physical-chemical project, that has not yet been devised. It could be that Physics has still not identified the physics that is needed to go fromm the rock to the cell . In a sense, all these molecules out of a cell are a bit riocks .I shall come back to highly interesting matter in another occasion.We have to continue thinking of it.Wish all of you a pleasant dayMario

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