TD 9 Forms – Eyeing the Big Caribbean Islands and the United States

   Posted by Levi at 4:55pm on August 21, 2012

Tropical Depression #9 has formed from Invest 94L east of the lesser Antilles. The system has displayed an increase in convection since last night, unsurprising since it has crossed 50W into an area of warmer water. Convective coverage remains low overall, and the northeastern semicircle of the storm is mostly void of thunderstorms. This should change as the system leaves its genesis area within the eastern Atlantic monsoon flow, and thunderstorm activity should gradually fill out during the next couple of days. TD 9 should steadily intensify as it enters the eastern Caribbean, bringing tropical storm conditions to the northern Antilles as far south as St. Lucia. By the time it nears Hispaniola in about 3 days, I expect it will be a moderate-strong tropical storm. This is not aggressive as the NHC forecast which takes TD 9 to a Cat 2 hurricane near Haiti. I am less bullish with the intensity through Day 3 due to the still less than ideal environment in the eastern Caribbean with continued fast trade winds and sinking air ahead of the storm.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The subtropical ridge directly north of TD 9 right now should continue to direct it westward or WNW for the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, this ridge will be shifting eastward and a weakness will develop north of the Bahamas, inducing a more northwesterly motion near or over the island of Hispaniola. This motion should then continue, bringing TD 9 in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida within 5 days. The 0z ECMWF takes TD 9 south of Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. This is the western outlier of the model guidance envelope, and is being discounted as too far west at this time. The track has been nudged slightly to the left, and is in best agreement with the 06z GFS ensemble mean.

Overall, this storm is now developing, and we should start to get a better handle on the track as the models become better able to resolve the situation. The northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba could all face impacts from this storm during the next few days. The Bahamas and the southeast United States are very likely to be impacted as well, but there is still uncertainty on the details given that a potential U.S. landfall is still at least 6-7 days away.

Elsewhere….Invest 95L in the western Gulf of Mexico has not developed significantly since yesterday, mainly due to the frontal boundary to the northeast being too strong to allow much consolidation. 95L still has another day or so over water and could still wind up just before moving ashore, but should not be more than a rain maker for northern Mexico and extreme south Texas.

We shall see what happens!


11 comments

   

Comments

  • stormw says:

    Levi..Nice job! I kinda like your track as well!

    • Levi says:

      I’m glad someone does lol. There’s still lots of room for adjusting the track beyond 72 hours in this situation. The big Caribbean islands have a tendency to mess everything up for TC tracks.

      • Siva says:

        A few suggestions i came up with while plnaiyg today:A screen were we control which units to deploy before round starts (Right after we get to know what game mode we’re getting into)Give friendly priests the omni blast or cure blast to take out poison (and stop fires if you give them the omni blast. Maybe you can give the priest 2 ranks, one with cure blast and one with omni blast?)Give friendly mages the chain lighting attack like the controlable mage 2 0

  • Tami says:

    Thanks for the update and for moving the track to the other side of Florida lol! I like it better there than over here:)

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Levi, Bryan Norcross is insisting on a track that most likely will bring the storm into the west coast of FL, around Tampa.
    He doesn’t see the weakness in the high pressure ridge that you talked about allowing the storm to be drawn north of the Bahamas.
    I think he’s being a bit of an alarmist and not taking all into consideration as you do. Care to comment? And thanks for all the fine videos and information!!!

    • Elsy says:

      Nikki & Tommy – What can we say? You could look like a grenade (that’s Jersey Shore laungage:) and still look beautiful in Tessa’s photographs. Tessa, you are amazing. You have such a gift and we are so happy AND lucky to have crossed paths with you.

  • Anonymous says:

    Are you making a tidbit today?

    • Z says:

      NHC just amended their forecast at 11 am – track shifted further west…. Calling for Hurricane along west FL on Monday AM.

  • Forms says:

    Fantastic post!! It protects the people from depression, by conducting weather surveys, which results in healthy life.

     Forms 

  • Embet says:

    Amis Carlisle – If anyone that knows the two of you, would ask for the pefrcet wedding that would capture the love you have for each other.. well I think it doesn’t come any closer than the pictures above! I am so happy for you and Mazel Tov!Nikki.. you left me agasped.. so beautiful, words cannot truly do justice!Tom.. handsome man.. BUT please work on your cry face ;)Wish I were there with my second family to none!! I miss you guys!

  • Crank says:

    So i think world gonna really end in 2012 Dec 21 in the Form of Storm all other related stuff :P

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