Atlantic Quiet For Now – Potential Threats Next 2 Weeks – Bulk of Hurricane Season Still to Come
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I really enjoyed the long-range analysis in this video and comparison to the 2004 season.
I enjoy as much technical and historical analysis as you can provide in your vids! Please keep up the great work!
Going to be a very intresting august.You mention levi in your video that the euro and few other models are predicting a non active season what other models are predicting that.I thought the euro was the best long range model there is?
The CFS, CMC, and ECMWF forecast a fairly quiet hurricane season. The Euro is generally the best seasonal model, but that doesn’t mean it’s always right.
TY LC.
A big part of my forecast over at TARC was that I thought the highly active part of the season would resemble 2004. See if we get close to that.
all guess work,, nobody really knows.
Analysts are always 50% right or wrong. Look at the stock market, those guys
Don’t know anything. You are smarter than most that’s for sure.
Your a great teacher . Thank You Levi
An interesting little statistic about this yr, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/negative/only 5 years since 1958 have had a -Indian Ocean Dipole & Neutral ENSO like what’s currently being observed. (1958, 1960, 1989, 1992, & 1996), of those 5 years, 4 out of those 5 hurricane seasons featured a category 5 Cape verde hurricane (Cleo (1958), Donna (1960), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) ). This is very interesting to say the least also given the already active Cape verde season with two developments south of 20 north, east of 60 west before Aug 1 & higher than normal observed Sahel rainfall period we’re entering much like back in the 1920-1965 period. I also provided more evidence for this in my recent post http://weatheradvance.com/2013/08/03/remembering-the-east-coast-nightmare-of-1938-hurricane-season-ramblings-tidbits-preliminary-winter-thoughts/ I don’t know what you think of all this Levi, but I certainly like this year’s chances for seeing a category 5 Cape Verde hurricane.
Those years are interesting as 3 out of 5 were healthy Cape Verde seasons, but the sample size of Cat 5 hurricanes is too small to be drawing conclusions about the probability of seeing one in a given season. Perfect conditions during a precise moment have to occur in order to allow a hurricane to strengthen that much. That can’t really be forecasted on a seasonal scale.
Very true, certainly not to say that I can at least try to do so. I’ve looked seasons since 1950 that had at least 2 developments (to broaden my sample size, I made the requirements for such years to have at least one tropical storm & one other system of tropical depression strength or greater) before August 1st in the area east of 60 degrees west & south of 20 north. Years that came up were 1966, 1969, 1979, 1989, & 2003. Interesting about these years is that 3 out of those 5 seasons also had a category 5 Cape verde hurricanes (1979’s David, 1989’s Hugo, 2003’s Isabel) & 4 out of those 5 years had a category 5 hurricane. This seems to line up with the -IOD & Neutral ENSO years & what’s also interesting is that in years like 1966 & 1996 which were the ONLY years not to feature either a category 5 Cape Verde hurricane or category 5 hurricane in general, both years came extremely close, with 1966’s hurricane Inez topping out with winds of 155 MPH, just below cat 5 threshold & 1996’s hurricane Edouard was a major hurricane for 8 days & was a category 4 hurricane for a considerable period of time, virtually almost knocking on the door of category 5 hurricane status. Based on this I think my call for a 70% chance (that’s 3 to 4 times the climatological 1928-2012 mean of 15-20% based on 14 category 5 Cape Verde hurricanes in that time span) is right in the middle of these two sample years % of 80 & 60 respectively is a good forecast for trying to predict a category 5 Cape Verde hurricane this year. It doesn’t “guarantee” one occurring, certainly makes it likely & based on the data at hand, that suggests we are at least going to come very close to seeing a category 5 Cape Verde hurricane this season.
As far as I’m concerned, in a general sense forecasting long range weather & seasonal predictions like this is still a gamble you know. We still have so many unsolved mysteries & phenomena to explain & still uncover in the world of weather and forecasting in a relative sense is still an unknown & it’s very reminiscent of gambling in Las Vegas. If you are too overly aggressive & gamble too often, people may not take you as seriously & you may be putting yourself at risk way too much, thus you’ll end up on the losing side of things, however, if you are too conservative you may also end up on the losing side of things by not taking enough risk when you needed to. It’s really all about taking the gamble & risk when the time is right & when you’ve done enough data collection & “homework” to safely solidify your forecast. As long as you, weather enthusiasts like me & other meteorologists take this to heart, we’ll be successful in our meteorological careers wherever they make take us.
Great presentation as always, Levi. Do you think you might have time to prepares something on the West Pacific Season? West Pacific extratropical transitions often bring dramatic changes to west coast weather and the forecast problem is probably greater for these than for the Atlantic storms.
Cheers
I tend to focus on Atlantic tropical forecasting during the summer. I currently don’t really have the time to monitor other basins, but perhaps sometime in the future I will.
Knowing just a little bit about how the atmosphere works, I would think that warmer water would promote rising air and lower pressures. Am I getting the cause and effect backwards here as in warmer waters are a result of higher pressures and therefore less clouds?
Great post. I spent the last 2 years in south east Asia but I am back in Florida now and will never forget 04, nor will I forget seeing the Asian monsoons, especially 2011. There is one difference between 2004 and now. 2004 had a weak El Niño in the east Pacific.
Well both ways of thinking about it are correct, Andrew. The atmosphere and ocean do not share a one-way relationship. They are coupled. Both influence each other. It’s called a feedback process. In the mid-latitudes, warm water may indeed promote ridging that in turn promotes less clouds and allows further warming. However, in the tropics, this is usually not the case, as warm water tends to lower pressures there and produce more clouds, blocking sunlight. In this case, the process of warming water tends to limit itself instead of accelerating itself.
Thanks. I understand the feedback concept, much as drought leads to more drought over land because with dry soil there is more no evaporation and so more of the sun’s energy is converted into heat because of less evaporation so the ground dries further and so on.
Also, doesn’t ridging in that area tend to promote late season (October) western Caribbean development as well? I thought that the early end of the 2004 season was caused by the weak El Niño.
Hi my friend, i am living Cozumel Quintana Roo. I saw your forescast model and i am little worried about that. i have a question ¿ is there some tropical wave might development a short term or long term ? it is sure that forecast model ? i want to know more about that, i hope you can answer soon.
We’re all going to die! Seriously! Expecting the storm to impact the East Coast this year will be named Nestor and will be a Category 2 or 3 Hurricane on landfall. That’s what I feel like they are trying to tell us. Every tropical wave that forms off of the coast now becomes breaking and major news. Especially on the Weather Channel. “ALERT: Tropical Wave could hit the United States!” I seriously think the new Global Warming regime will be the end of our favorite cities and states such as New York, Boston, Fairfield, Bridgeport, New Jersey. We need to invent something that will stop Global Warming! We didn’t have the Dry air over the atlantic, we would honestly be on the N named storm by now and would likely run out of names. I have a gut feeling that every single state in the United States will be affected, including California and the west coast of the United States. This is really bad.