Erika Forms but is Struggling for Now – Could Strengthen and Threaten Bahamas, U.S. in 4-7 Days

   Posted by Levi at 10:51pm on August 25, 2015


15 comments

   

Comments

  • Kathryn Worrell says:

    Thanks Levi!

  • Bill says:

    Very educational. Thank you.

  • Bill says:

    Notice the track is a classic on, thinking 1926, 1935, 2000 . I am sure the atmospheric conditions are quite different in the past years. Are there any comparisons?

    • Levi says:

      It’s usually flawed to compare directly to historical tracks, since as you say, the atmosphere is usually significantly different in at least one way. It’s usually best to judge a storm on face value, rather than liken it to a different storm from the past.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Thanks Levi….I have friends in several areas of FL and will get the word out for them to follow this. I repost what you send on my Facebook page too.
    Love the fact that your videos are so teaching oriented. I always learn something from them!
    Have a great weekend!

  • Shauneen says:

    I really enjoyed your presentation. Not sensationalized – but presenting the options and why they might occur. Thank You

  • Jason says:

    Im located in SE Florida and even the local MET’s yest & today are a little antsy with this one…more so than in past several years. TWC has been advertising big US pattern changes this week into next which seems to elude to what you just described with a large ridge building in East and a trough in the West…which seems to to put FL or SE US in play. It will be interesting to see how this evolves this week. Thanks for your analysis on this storm Levi!!

  • Reid says:

    Nice job, as always.

    One thing I would ask, is if you could add some commentary on the dramatic change we’ve seen in moisture in the MDR, recently.

    Is that climatological, because it seems to have shifted in a very big way this year, and very fast, unlike in past years, when the SAL just kept on coming.

    What’s different this year? I know that the trade winds have slowed in the Eastern Pacific, hence the El Nino, so what are we seeing in the Atlantic?

    In other words, there seems to be a one plus, in an El Nino, in that the MDR isn’t being blasted so much by the SAL.

    Thanks,

    • Levi says:

      Well, constant SAL is not normal. Last year was exceptional in terms of dust outbreaks. A break between dust storms is to be expected in the peak of the season, despite the El Nino. It may not last very long. The tropical waves kick that dust up and the trade winds carry it out over the Atlantic. I’m not sure I can pinpoint a reason why there’s a break at this particular time.

  • HarryCane says:

    Great job Levi, Thank You very much

  • Julie says:

    Excellent analysis and discussion Levi – thanks!!

  • La Sirena says:

    I’m in the lower Florida Keys and have been watching this one closely. Thanks for your forecast!

  • HarryCane says:

    Seems like the NHC always plays it this way. They put Florida in the cone then back it off to being a storm favoring the right towards the Bahamas and out. Florida is put in the cone to get every ones attention. At 5PM, the models are mostly showing a northwestern Bahamas tract but they still have Florida in the cone?

    • patrick says:

      It’s good for the economy. People rush out to buy batteries, flash lights, generators, gas etc. Plus it’s good for ratings. Increases, web traffic to sites, news channels etc.

  • Lawerence Ciolek says:

    But, courtesy of Uncle Sam’s Great Grey Ocean Liners, I have also seen the Green Flash of the Tropics and The Corposant once each. Was watching for the Green Flash, but the Corposant was a surprise, and a year and an ocean before seeing the Green Flash.

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