Erika Continues to Struggle, but Could be Big Threat Later; Ignacio May Threaten Hawaii
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Comments
Levi – Cheers from Gulfport MS, where everyone is a hurricane “expert” and locals are commemorating Katrina +10. Just wanted to say – you have the best, most concise, clearest, most articulate daily summaries of the tropics, bar none. You and Mike @ spaghettimodels.com, that’s all I need.
BTW – Drives me crazy when you skip a day, lol.
Thank You Levi, Another great video. Have you any idea why the NHC puts out cones on a 5 day forcast? Seems to me they should stick to the 3 day forcast because the information they put out with that is usually spot on. It drives me crazy to see that 5 day cone being tossed back and forth . All it does is get people all excited about a landfall or not. I am not sure they realize there are tens of millions of people living under that moving 5 day cone. Seems to me weather is too fluid and dynamic to be making calls like that. I am guessing that the media pushes them into making decisions that they are not ready to make. I think the funniest is when the NHC at the end of season gives the accuracy in forcasts during that hurricane season. They always pat themselves on the back and give themselves high accuracy ratings. The fact is they make adjustments in the number of hurricanes/tropical storms all along the season. Case in point, last year they predicted a busy season with 17 named storms. As the season wore on, they kept dropping the numbers till they had a very below average season, and sure enough, they were right again ! I think my twelve year old can do better in predicting storms by watching local weather reports and your in depth analysis. Thanks again for being my weather voice of reason. Sorry I had to vent. If you ever get into the weather business, please don’t change. Keep putting your fantastic product out.
Hello Levi. A question about terminology from an amatuer. You and others seem to use the term “tilted” and “Decoupled” synonymously when referring to the LLC and MLC, but these do not sound like synonyms to me. “Tilted” to me would indicate that while the centers were not stacked and thus not functioning at high efficiency, that they still were connected as a unit. “Decoupled” sounds to me like the two centers while in close proximity are independent of each other. Can you help clear up my confusion? Are the centers “connected” or no? Thanks from a frequent reader.
Hi Joe, great question!
It’s probably bad practice for me to interchange these words. Often they do effectively mean the same thing, that the vortex is tilted with height. It is difficult to tell if there is a continuous, tilted vortex, but usually this is the case. We often say “decoupled” because of the 2-dimensional appearance of two separate circulations, even if they are in fact connected in some way.
That’s really shrdew! Good to see the logic set out so well.
hi Levi! Just wanted to let you know that our local TV station, News4Jax (Jacksonville, FL) is using your graphics. We are all so proud of you!
You are a great public speaker…easy to listen to and great info.
Thanks.
Thank You for the most detailed and reliable information. I’m located in Jensen Beach, FL, right in the path of Erika. I appreciate the work you do for us who could be in danger.
Love your analysis. From Jax too. Don’t get much tv time in, but I hope you get paid.
Hi Levi. So grateful for your site. I’m new here so maybe I am doing or expecting something incorrectly. Here we are in mid-September and Erika still pops with your excellent analysis. Do I have to refresh or something or are you on vacation?
Thanks
–Farmer Jeb
Agree with Jeb above…do we need to do something else?