97L to Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to Jamaica Tonight – Likely to Develop in Western Caribbean

   Posted by Levi at 12:17am on August 2, 2016


19 comments

   

Comments

  • Nick says:

    Thanks for the fantastic insight as always. Hwrf had a 943 hurricane slamming the yucatan on an earlier run today. With the low taking so long to close off… Do you think the potential for a major hurricane like the Hwrf scenario is out of the question. Or is RI still a potential contender.

    • Levi says:

      A hurricane is possible if rapid intensification occurs just before landfall. It’s difficult to get more specific, but the HWRF has often been overdone in this type of situation, so it is probably on the extreme end of possibilities.

      • Nick says:

        Thanks for your thoughts! I was thinking that as well but always like to get a professional opinion. Very similar situation to last year with Erika. When the Hwrf was calling for a bomb and then it got shredded over Hispaniola. When I woke up and saw the satellite image this morning it was almost exactly the same as Erika if I recall correctly. Similar location. Just different paths.

  • Trebor says:

    Really enjoyed your analysis! Technical but completely understandable.

    PLEASE pronounce Campeche correctly — it will give you more credibility.
    Should be like CAM-PAY-CHAY (stress on PAY)

    Thanks again

    • Levi says:

      I used to pronounce it that way and was corrected by others, so I’m not entirely sure how to say it anymore lol.

      • Trebor says:

        Believe me, you are pronouncing it incorrectly now.
        Are there any Mexican students or teachers on your campus? They can tell you immediately.
        A small point, I agree, but one worth considering.

  • Harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, Thank You for your presentation, again, very interesting. On the last graphic of the presentation, you show a high pressure system over Mexico. I always thought the low of the tropical system tries to avoid high pressure, not head towards it. I would think it would dive sw or nw around the high. What am I missing? Thanks Again !!

    • Levi says:

      Surface highs do not steer TCs alone. TCs are steered primarily by a deep-layer mean wind that depends on the storm’s intensity. This does not always match up with what you might think by looking at surface pressure by itself.

  • Gerry says:

    Thanks! Great info. Keeping fingers crossed

  • wcooperiv says:

    Levi, I am a home weather buff and was very excited to find your website. You explanation are great and easy to understand. For the record, I think you pronounced Campeche well enough.

    We live in Texas and headed for South Padre Island at the bottom tip of Texas on the coast. Should we be worried about this system? Do you think it could move that far north?

    Thanks Sir!!!

  • Trebor says:

    YouTube How to Pronounce Campeche:

    https://youtu.be/B0rMF9eef8s

    No knock on your reports! We eagerly await the next one.

  • Reid says:

    Campeche means the land of snakes and ticks, I believe.

  • Dave says:

    I guess if you live in America Campeche pronounce it different then in Mexico.Keep up the good work Levi.You right again about strengthening further west.

  • Harrycane says:

    Cam PAY Chay Cam PEE Chay…. lets call the whole thing off. THINK WEATHER !!

  • Harrycane says:

    Ask an American how to pronounce Polo Tropical. They would say Marco “Polo” Tropical. AND NOT POYO. LOL

  • Karen says:

    Any update this evening (August 2)? We’ve been following your blog & this site closely…we live on the coast of south/central Belize.

  • Jose Menard says:

    A hurricane hunter aircraft recently found that Earl has become a hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall in Belize late tonight or early Thursday morning. Beyond hurricane-force winds, the most life-threatening impacts are usually inland flooding and coastal storm surge, so take appropriate safety precautions.?

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