Thanks for the fantastic insight as always. Hwrf had a 943 hurricane slamming the yucatan on an earlier run today. With the low taking so long to close off… Do you think the potential for a major hurricane like the Hwrf scenario is out of the question. Or is RI still a potential contender.
A hurricane is possible if rapid intensification occurs just before landfall. It’s difficult to get more specific, but the HWRF has often been overdone in this type of situation, so it is probably on the extreme end of possibilities.
Thanks for your thoughts! I was thinking that as well but always like to get a professional opinion. Very similar situation to last year with Erika. When the Hwrf was calling for a bomb and then it got shredded over Hispaniola. When I woke up and saw the satellite image this morning it was almost exactly the same as Erika if I recall correctly. Similar location. Just different paths.
Really enjoyed your analysis! Technical but completely understandable.
PLEASE pronounce Campeche correctly — it will give you more credibility.
Should be like CAM-PAY-CHAY (stress on PAY)
I used to pronounce it that way and was corrected by others, so I’m not entirely sure how to say it anymore lol.
Believe me, you are pronouncing it incorrectly now.
Are there any Mexican students or teachers on your campus? They can tell you immediately.
A small point, I agree, but one worth considering.
Hi Levi, Thank You for your presentation, again, very interesting. On the last graphic of the presentation, you show a high pressure system over Mexico. I always thought the low of the tropical system tries to avoid high pressure, not head towards it. I would think it would dive sw or nw around the high. What am I missing? Thanks Again !!
Surface highs do not steer TCs alone. TCs are steered primarily by a deep-layer mean wind that depends on the storm’s intensity. This does not always match up with what you might think by looking at surface pressure by itself.
Thanks! Great info. Keeping fingers crossed
Levi, I am a home weather buff and was very excited to find your website. You explanation are great and easy to understand. For the record, I think you pronounced Campeche well enough.
We live in Texas and headed for South Padre Island at the bottom tip of Texas on the coast. Should we be worried about this system? Do you think it could move that far north?
It is now unlikely that this storm will impact Texas.
YouTube How to Pronounce Campeche:
No knock on your reports! We eagerly await the next one.
Campeche means the land of snakes and ticks, I believe.
I guess if you live in America Campeche pronounce it different then in Mexico.Keep up the good work Levi.You right again about strengthening further west.
Cam PAY Chay Cam PEE Chay…. lets call the whole thing off. THINK WEATHER !!
Ask an American how to pronounce Polo Tropical. They would say Marco “Polo” Tropical. AND NOT POYO. LOL
Any update this evening (August 2)? We’ve been following your blog & this site closely…we live on the coast of south/central Belize.
A hurricane hunter aircraft recently found that Earl has become a hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall in Belize late tonight or early Thursday morning. Beyond hurricane-force winds, the most life-threatening impacts are usually inland flooding and coastal storm surge, so take appropriate safety precautions.?
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