[Tuesday Evening] 99L Becoming More Likely to Develop Near the Bahamas in a Few Days

   Posted by Levi at 12:43am on August 24, 2016


27 comments

   

Comments

  • Rick Billings says:

    Thanks for the post, Levi. Any chance for interaction with Hispaniola to inhibit some development?

    • Levi says:

      It is possible, though all models currently keep it north of the island. It does have a history of unexpectedly grabbing storms by the legs, though.

      • William Robinson says:

        Levi, I think there is a chance, as you described, the low level center on the northern portion of the wave and a more of a mid level center on the southern portion, taking time to get vertically stacked… there is likely a good chance of the mid level center heading to Hispaniola to be torn up while the low level center stays north of the island. If that does happen, it may take time for the low level center to restart building a cyclonic circulation upwards in the atmosphere. How much time to rebuild given the troughs and dry air from the north, that is the question.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Thanks Levi, once again. Wish the news was better….I have some friends in Pensacola, friends in S. FL…and I getting more and more concerned…Still I trust your information implicitly. Appreciate the time you take to share your views with us.

  • Mike says:

    Great post. Does seem like 99l has some obstacles ro overcome. Nice to see clear logic instead of hype

  • Orlando Figueroa says:

    Thanks Levi for the update, I am going to Florida tonight and im supposed to be vacationing with my family in Lower Grand Lagoon,FL and im a bit concerned about this storm and when i checked the forecast from the ECMWF, it showed hurricane force winds affecting my location.If this situation was to unfold,is it possible if you could give me advice on what should I do?

    • Jon says:

      Orlando,
      I live in West Palm Beach Florida and have weathered many a storm. Too soon to know but I wouldn’t change my plans if I were you. In the event a hurricane is likely you will have time to evacuate, especially from NW FL. Often airlines will assist in getting people out before a storm. So pay attention, enjoy vacation and keep in mind that you MAY need to shorten your stay.

    • Levi says:

      Jon gives good advice. Don’t worry right now, but keep an eye open in case things turn sour. We have a long time to watch, and you will have ample warning if a storm comes that way.

  • Hoff511 says:

    Thanks Levi. This one has me a little worried.

  • Jeff says:

    Love the Tidbits! Thanks Jeff

  • Rainer says:

    Hi Levi,The European Model is showing 99-L becoming an exteremely strong storm and impacting louisiana .But after that the storm turns northeast into the Mid Atlantic then up towards Nantucket as a 988 Millibar Storm. Is this realistic? Thanks…

  • Jacu gonzalez says:

    Hi Levi , firts of all , thank you , you are the bests . I have family living in St.maarten I own a sailing boat , should I concern about this ?

  • Mario says:

    Been tracking this storm for the past few days. I’m supposed to fly in to the Bahamas on Saturday – right at the height of what the European is saying will be for 99L – noon. Needless to say, I’m plenty worried right now that this outcome looks less and less likely. At best, I’m hoping for a delay and that I can fly in later in the day.

    With this said, thanks for the website and informative videos, this helps explain a lot of the questions I’ve been having.

  • Levi says:

    As I state in my videos, decision-making should be based on forecasts from your local weather office and the NHC, not me. I can’t give localized forecasts for everyone.

    A good rule of thumb is that if your local weather office mentions adverse weather associated with a tropical system, you should pay attention. If they don’t, it’s probably because the system is several days away, and model forecasts showing impacts to your area several days out are unreliable.

    I’m a big picture guy for these storms. I will make generalized statements about areas that may have to pay attention, but I cannot get down to the local level. It would be irresponsible to do so.

    Stay safe everyone.

  • John says:

    Thanks for the insight Levi! I am the unofficial weather guy for a yacht charter company with interests in the Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida. I appreciate all the information I can get my hands on.

  • Danny says:

    Hi Levi, the ridge you mention at 7:45… the models are showing that it likely will keep 99L away from the mid-Atlantic states? I didn’t quite follow. Thanks

  • Campbell says:

    Hey Levi, great work. Any chance in one of your next videos you could focus on Gaston a little? Us East Coasters are getting damn excited about the swell that’ll hit over the weekend and into next week…. would love to share some of your work with my surfing buddies. Thanks :)

  • tami says:

    This is so very reminding me of KATRINA… weak wave, other d’pressions near, warm water, crossing into Gulf…

    • J says:

      I’m more concerned about the Baton Rouge, Louisiana metropolitan area, the the metropolitan New Orleans area. I believe this will track way north of where Katrina hit almost 11 years ago. There was a 1936 hurricane, or close to that year that wiped out the Baton Rouge area. It tracked at a 45 degree angel from the GOM right of Slidell to the metropolitan Baton Rouge affecting the area from Slidell to Baton Rouge. Search the year 1936 plus or minus a few years.

      • J says:

        Corrected Typos.

        I’m more concerned about the Baton Rouge, Louisiana metropolitan area, then the metropolitan New Orleans area. I believe this will track way north of where Katrina hit almost 11 years ago. There was a 1936 hurricane, or close to that year that wiped out the Baton Rouge area. It tracked at a 45 degree angel from the GOM right of Slidell to the metropolitan Baton Rouge affecting the area from Slidell to Baton Rouge. Search the year 1936 plus or minus a few years.

        • tami says:

          Since the hardest-hit areas in KATRINA were in Mississippi, you might want to give a thought to them…

          • J says:

            I’m sensing a Baton Rouge impact. Something in me is going off. The weather is just too freaky in that area right now. Maybe it’s Karma, or a chastisement on that city.

  • evelyn alland says:

    Grrrreat to see you Levi – thanks for the understandable, yet detailed forecast – big hugs SurfMom – SWFL

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