Excellent..as always. Yet another wait and see scenario. The waiting is the hardest part when you are potentially in the line of fire.
Thanks…again..at least it seems to pass at the westvof samana,DR…keep fingure cross..?
Thanks for another informative post, Levi. It seems that the one thing we can count on is that Matthew will be a strong storm. It certainly bears watching.
Going on a cruise in the Caribbean october1st thinking about canceling the cruise now ughhh
I think Oct 1st will be ok.
OTOH, my cruise, which departs Tampa on 10/6?…maybe not so much.
Thank you very much, Levi. Your explanations make sense to me and I greatly appreciate the time and effort you give to this work. I have been tracking hurricanes since HUGO (we lived in Mt. Pleasant) and only knew of their impacts from the stories my husband would tell of his south Florida childhood and an experience in Wrightsville Beach. So. So, I take these seriously and when my angles and string compasses don’t help me; you give real words and concepts to the movement of the atmosphere. Thank you! It will be an interesting process watching this one. Good night!
Thanks as always for a very detailed and informative video. Looks like 97L could be as puzzling and tricky to forecast as Hermine was.
We’ll be eagerly looking forward to your hopefully daily postings.
We truly appreciate all your hard work to keep us scientifically informed.
Very informative, as usual, Levi. Gonna be lots of sleepless nights for many people during the next couple of weeks, trying to figure out if it’s coming their way!
I love to watch Tropical Tidbits! Thank you Levi!
Thanks Levi are you going to school at FSU. You are one smart dude and I thank you for your updates. I love tropical weather and you make it easy for an old man to understand. My son went to FSU! I am in Gulf Breeze Florida just across the bay from Pensacola so I have seen a Hurricane or two!! Keep up the good work.
Thank you Levi. Could you perhaps tell me why the GFDL-P shows such a more westward track? What is it seeing that the others aren’t. Just curious and trying to learn. Have a great day!
It seems to have a weaker upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico than the other models, which allows the storm to track farther west.
Thanks Levi- great job as usual. Keeping a close eye on yet another potential tropical threat to the northeastern Bahamas.
Your time line of at least 5 more days in the Caribbean really is helpful for me.Thanks for your excellent work.
Great update, Levi. Models have been trending toward a less progressive, retrogressive pattern, with a deeper trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an amplifying trough southeast of New England. The GFS was the first to show this pattern and now the ECMWF is following suit. More of the EC ensembles now show a track over Cuba and just east of Florida. Given these trends, there appears to be an opening “exit route” for a sharp northward turn along ~75°W and then east of the United States, allowing 97L/Matthew to pass offshore of the East Coast.
I’ve been noticing that the models are trending more to the west.. even though there is a trough over the gulf is there a chance it could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to panhandle of Florida ?
The latest models (00Z and later) are actually trending more to the east. The risk to areas west of Florida is diminishing.
That’s not what the discussion over on Wunderground is talking about. They’re seeing the path moving further West, and the angle of turn becoming more gradual.
At this point it would be misleading to say the Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to be threatened. We don’t know that yet. Many possible options remain on the table. The good news is any potential threat to the U.S. is a week or more away.
NOAA has upgraded Invest 97L to Tropical Storm Matthew (11 AM ET). Thanks for this amazingly useful website.
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