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September 2016

[Tuesday Evening] 97L Slow to Develop – Could Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to Windward Islands and Southern Caribbean

   Posted by Levi at 1:07am on September 28, 2016




  • Jon Elu says: always. Yet another wait and see scenario. The waiting is the hardest part when you are potentially in the line of fire.

  • eaudree96 says:

    Thanks… least it seems to pass at the westvof samana,DR…keep fingure cross..?

  • Rick Billings says:

    Thanks for another informative post, Levi. It seems that the one thing we can count on is that Matthew will be a strong storm. It certainly bears watching.

  • Giovanni Romo says:

    Going on a cruise in the Caribbean october1st thinking about canceling the cruise now ughhh

    • Lobstah says:

      I think Oct 1st will be ok.
      OTOH, my cruise, which departs Tampa on 10/6?…maybe not so much.

  • Anonymous says:

    Thanks Levi.

  • cj38 says:

    Thank you very much, Levi. Your explanations make sense to me and I greatly appreciate the time and effort you give to this work. I have been tracking hurricanes since HUGO (we lived in Mt. Pleasant) and only knew of their impacts from the stories my husband would tell of his south Florida childhood and an experience in Wrightsville Beach. So. So, I take these seriously and when my angles and string compasses don’t help me; you give real words and concepts to the movement of the atmosphere. Thank you! It will be an interesting process watching this one. Good night!

  • Felipe Lopez says:

    Thanks as always for a very detailed and informative video. Looks like 97L could be as puzzling and tricky to forecast as Hermine was.
    We’ll be eagerly looking forward to your hopefully daily postings.
    We truly appreciate all your hard work to keep us scientifically informed.

  • Wayne says:

    Very informative, as usual, Levi. Gonna be lots of sleepless nights for many people during the next couple of weeks, trying to figure out if it’s coming their way!

  • Texas Teri says:

    I love to watch Tropical Tidbits! Thank you Levi!

  • Gulfbreeze says:

    Thanks Levi are you going to school at FSU. You are one smart dude and I thank you for your updates. I love tropical weather and you make it easy for an old man to understand. My son went to FSU! I am in Gulf Breeze Florida just across the bay from Pensacola so I have seen a Hurricane or two!! Keep up the good work.

  • MosesMS says:

    Thank you Levi. Could you perhaps tell me why the GFDL-P shows such a more westward track? What is it seeing that the others aren’t. Just curious and trying to learn. Have a great day!

    • Levi says:

      It seems to have a weaker upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico than the other models, which allows the storm to track farther west.

  • Robert S says:

    Thanks Levi- great job as usual. Keeping a close eye on yet another potential tropical threat to the northeastern Bahamas.

  • L. Clark says:

    Your time line of at least 5 more days in the Caribbean really is helpful for me.Thanks for your excellent work.

  • Daniel Gladstein says:

    Great update, Levi. Models have been trending toward a less progressive, retrogressive pattern, with a deeper trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an amplifying trough southeast of New England. The GFS was the first to show this pattern and now the ECMWF is following suit. More of the EC ensembles now show a track over Cuba and just east of Florida. Given these trends, there appears to be an opening “exit route” for a sharp northward turn along ~75°W and then east of the United States, allowing 97L/Matthew to pass offshore of the East Coast.

  • Anonymous says:

    I’ve been noticing that the models are trending more to the west.. even though there is a trough over the gulf is there a chance it could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to panhandle of Florida ?

    • Daniel Gladstein says:

      The latest models (00Z and later) are actually trending more to the east. The risk to areas west of Florida is diminishing.

      • Lobstah says:

        That’s not what the discussion over on Wunderground is talking about. They’re seeing the path moving further West, and the angle of turn becoming more gradual.

    • Levi says:

      At this point it would be misleading to say the Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to be threatened. We don’t know that yet. Many possible options remain on the table. The good news is any potential threat to the U.S. is a week or more away.

  • Tai Fernandez says:

    NOAA has upgraded Invest 97L to Tropical Storm Matthew (11 AM ET). Thanks for this amazingly useful website.

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