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[Saturday Evening] Matthew a Very Dangerous Hurricane – Will Impact Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba Monday and Tuesday

   Posted by Levi at 11:16pm on October 1, 2016

Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center


29 comments

   

Comments

  • eric moore says:

    From OIB,NC thank you for your great work.

  • Paolo says:

    the Euro Global model has it out to sea after the bahamas, will be interesting to see if the model runs change back to the west

  • Rainer says:

    Great analysis as always but the Euro has shifted slightly farther to the west and the GFS has stayed it impacting New England…Are the models coming together a little bit Levi?

  • MosesMS says:

    Thanks. Great as always. I’m glad I’m not the one who has to call the forecast. Like you said to much uncertainty long term.

  • Mark says:

    Hi Levi, loving your website and products, keep uo the great work!

    Just a question about the video… at 8:55 you’re describing the upper level high which indeed does look like an ideal area for hurricane to maintain under it. So my Q is… could this upper level high actually be caused by the outflow winds of the Matthew itself on the model? I mean, it will be a pretty big system in a few days once it shifts towards Cuba and Bahamas.

    Thanks!

    • Levi says:

      Well that’s exactly it Mark – the high aloft is created by the hurricane. What I was pointing out was how symmetric it is, which indicates little to no shear, and plenty of room for Matthew’s outflow to expand, which is a favorable configuration for the storm.

      • Mark says:

        Ah yes true, thanks. We’re thinking the same.

        Will be interesting to see how the ‘cane behaves in the next 3 days, it’s fun to see the GFS/EC models having pressure way higher than actually is now and expected in the following hours, while they simulate much lower later on (like 10-15mb lower than current timeframe on the model)… taking in account how much lower in reality is, will be intereting to see the recon data through next days.

      • Mike says:

        Hi Levi!! Looking at the GFS this morning and it has it hugging the coast line from the Carolinas all the way up past where I live (southern N.J.) and then some. This scenario is of course more common then what happened with Hermine which had us on high alert, but well everyone knows what happened there. Your thoughts please, and let me point out that you have an excellent site here, still checking it out!! Good job!!

  • SteveInBoston says:

    I live in Boston and I’m having a tough time finding out what we need to prepare for. I understand predictions for next week are uncertain but realistically it takes a long time to do what needs to be done.

    I see the maps. Do people think the GFS is reliable? It’s now five runs with the same result. And what wind speeds are we talking about? Please don’t tell me it’s still a long way off. It’s time to plan contingencies even if nothing happens.

    Where can a layperson get this information?

    • Levi says:

      Steve,

      No one can tell you where the storm will be in 7 days. We just can’t do that.

      If you actually have preparations for a storm that require a week of time, then it’s up to you to make a decision based on the information currently available from NHC and NWS Boston.

    • Sophie Cornelleir says:

      What takes so long to prepare when you live on land? We live on our boat and we took less that 2 days to be ready for this storm to hit us!!! remove sails, wind gen, solar panels, make water, fuel the tanks!!! You have more than a week and you are in a civilized country… Come here in Ha├»ti, you will see what it is…

      • Lobstah says:

        In all fairness, prepping a boat can be much simpler than stick built homes :)
        That being said, I would not want to ride this out on a boat.
        Best of thoughts to you and yours.

    • Lobstah says:

      Steve,
      We live in Florida now, moved from central Mass 2yrs ago, and don’t know what the impact will be HERE in 3 days, let alone 7. Most preperations for a hurricane kit are not perishable, and you’re coming into Nor’Easter season anyway, so get some water, food, batteries, a crank/charge radio, and you’re pretty good to go :)

      • SteveInBoston says:

        All I’m asking is for someone to explain to me what the current models say. I don’t know what 974 mb on the GFS translates to. I don’t know how many other models contradict the GFS or which are most reliable, other than the European.

        Every place isn’t Florida. My sister can prepare for a hurricane down there by pressing a button to roll down her shutters. No one in New England has ever boarded up a window, and if we needed to, Home Depot would absolutely not have enough plywood on hand. And boarding up a two and a half story house is a much bigger project than doing it to a ranch. We have big trees over houses and wires that need pruning. If we want to leave, we can’t just all leave at the last minute with no preparation.

        I’m just trying to understand what the models are saying.

  • Caleb says:

    Hey, Levi. I have been following your site for a long time now and every video update you post seems to be better than the last one. I look up to you big time man. Thank you for informing us about this massive hurricane. One question. Do you think that the upper level low that is being given a 10% chance to develop by the NHC in their Tropical Weather Outlook will be able erode the ridge you talked about, allowing for an escape route out to sea for Matthew? Thanks.

  • Anonymous says:

    Well looks like another fret about nothing storm. High power, fun to watch, but OTS like so many before it since 2005.

    The drought continues.

    • Levi says:

      It isn’t nothing to the Greater Antilles, but we all hope the number of landfalls will be minimal. For now nothing is certain.

    • Anonymous says:

      A Cat 4-5 is a “nothing” storm???? None of these are “fun” to watch if you have to prepare or to live through one. Ask the ones that have lived through one about your observations.

  • Jay says:

    The last Hurricane to hit Jamaica was Dennis in July 2005. I remember watching Cindy, then Dennis, then Katrina. Biloxi had a miserable year in 2005.

  • Peter says:

    Excellent overview! This has become a go-to site for clear tropical wx analysis and I work for NWS!

  • Craig says:

    Levi, I’ve read in Met blogs in the past that strong storms like Matthew have the ability to influence large scale patterns around them specifically amplifying the ridge as it tries to build back in from the NE of Matthew. Is this fact or fiction?

    • Levi says:

      Hurricanes certainly do have an influence on the environment around them. Computer models usually get this mostly right, so we normally don’t have to worry accounting for it. However, models are of course not perfect, and hurricanes’ effect on the atmosphere around them is one of the reasons they are difficult to predict well.

  • Craig says:

    BTW – I think you should apply to be the head of the NHC

  • Jeff says:

    Really well done. You have taken very complex concepts and a complex situation and distilled so a thinking petson can undetstand more.

  • BeachFoxx says:

    Thank you Levi! Excellent job! Looks like we are going to be in the clear!

  • Paul Bullara says:

    If the storm stays on the westerly course how far west does it have to go till it becomes a Florida problem

  • Jennifer says:

    This is our 3rd hurricane season in Belize. I am so thankful I found your site this year – you have helped us understand these storms in such a clear and concise manner. We visit you daily for your updates. You really do provide a great service for the “layman”. Thank you so much Levi.

    All those who are in the projected path of Matthew, you are in our thoughts and prayers. Please don’t put off getting prepared for this storm.

    Jennifer

  • Bruce Williams says:

    This is a fantastic site! Thank-you very much for all the work! Much better longer term forecast than the 30 seconds on the local news cast or the NWS Tropical site.

    We live outside of Raleigh, NC and just purchased a property last month in North Topsail Beach, NC. Your discussions and information around the probabilities of the longer term tracks are very helpful as we consider our first “boarding up”.

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