Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center
The saving Grace is again, the relatively SMALL EYE of this hurricane. If it does hit land near ST. Lucie look for some weakening, and additional weakening as it heads up the coast. Strongest winds of course will be initial impact zone. Of course biggest threat over LARGE AREA of FL east coast will be storm surge, even when Hurricane Matthew weakens. Good Luck to all in the path of this VERY Intense Hurricane!!
P.S. Talk about TIDES in your next briefing, and H20 temperatures!!!
thanks again, Levi. stay safe. you have done an excellent job.
The glancing angle could maximize the storm surge as Matthew works its way up the coast of Florida. Directly onshore winds will pile the water up ahead of the eyewall then the storm’s NNW motion will push the mound of water with it.
Please, let this storm stay offshore. That would greatly reduce the flooding.
Thanks for the succinct post, Levi.
I disagree. A hurricane is a low pressure system. A low pressure system in the Western Hemisphere turns Counter-clockwise. Therefore, the worst winds are on the west side blowing to the east forcing the water back out to sea. Please correct me if I am wrong though.
Sorry to disagree. The east side is stronger winds because they add to the forward motion. The west side speeds are reduced by the forward motion.
This is correct Chris!
I always understood that hurricanes in the northern hemisphere rotated counter-clockwise and typhoons in the southern hemisphere rotated clockwise
Hey Levi, can you please tell the government to use thier satilites to stall the hurricane a little bit more? I have a flight that’s supposed to go outta jax to Ft Lauderdale and they are trying to cancel it, but I let them know my friend will get them to stall the hurricane for me, thanks!
Cat. 4 at the 11 o’clock update. Winds: 140 MPH. Its moving North West at 14 MPH.
Thank you, Levi. Heartfelt prayers for all the people in Matthew’s path. Appreciate your video update for this morning.
Thanks, Levi. I am sharing your posts on FB and elsewhere. Bandwith donation incoming!
This was the best explanation ever!
Thanks Levi, preps are done. South of Orlando, hoping for the best.
Theodore, you are Dead Wrong about the winds blowing on the Southern side from West to East being the worst. The absolute worst winds are in the NE quadrant. This is due to the forward motion of the Hurricane ADDED to the actual wind speed. That’s why Andros Island got clobbered earlier today. So with that said storm surge will be the worst AHEAD of the hurricane as Easterly winds pile up storm surge against the FL. Coast. Yes, looks like the 140 mph winds of the storm have caught up to the drop in pressure earlier. Okay, batten down the hatches FL and Good Luck!!!
John, you’re right, but as the storm passes the wind will become offshore blowing the water out. In fact, when the eye passes your location, the water will begin to start moving out to sea rapidly. One thing no one is talking about is the time of high tide. On the east coast of FL, they have a semidiurnal tide patter, which means they have two lows and two highs in a 24-hour period. I work out of the St John River area around Mayport, FL and tide range was about 4 to 5 feet. So add that to your storm surge.
Here’s a link about Hurricane wind speeds: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html
John: Get your own web site!!!
Thx Levi – great video …
Can you tell me what is the source of the radar image shown in the bottom left (NWS WSR-88D from AMX) … I can only seem to find “Miami”, or “South East Sector”, that does not extend off shore to cover the Bahamas :
sorry, bottom right image
Many thanks Levi so taking the time to keep us posted!
Just curious on how much an effect the Gulf Stream will have on the path of Matthew.
It won’t have any affect on the path but may allow the storm to increase slightly in intensity due to higher sea surface temps. I wouldn’t surprised if max winds are 150mph as it approached Florida coast.
Will hurricane Nicole effect Matthew in any way?
I had the same thought, apparently the models have accounted for that but I can’t imagine that much warm water headed N would not help to move this thing N as well.
Hurricane Andrew occurred at the beginning of my senior year in high school.
I’m having flashbacks to the feelings, and emotions I had back then. 24 years later, is Matthew, Andrew’s son? And my ancestors used to talk about Hurricane Betsy looping.
Thank you so much for the incisive, detailed and level headed posts. Your informative reports are a boon to all of us living in potential hurricane strike zones. Thank you.
Does anyone know how to get an anemometer reading for Marsh Harbour Bahamas? The Weatherunderground reports SE at 73 mph gusting 92 but I think that is a calculated (model) velocity.
Update: Just heard update from ham radio / boater in Elbow Cay who reported 40 mph at around 4:00pm EST.
Thank you for keeping us informed. I’ve just made a donation to you. Please keep up the great analysis.
When do you believe you are going to do another video?
The models are now starting to show that the trough is going to pick it up off of Hatteras again.
Does anyone have any specific thoughts on Savannah
Worst condition will be Friday night. Winds expected to be sustained 50-60MPH with occasional hurricane force gusts depending on exact track of storm. Total rainfall 8-12 inches with potentially devastating storm surge along the coast. I’m not familiar with Savannah topography and how storm surge would affect immediate area.
Turning more towards the north?
Just saw the same thing on radar. Just a slight jog or wobble so it will be interesting to see if Matthew stays “a few” miles further to the east.
There is also a decrease in core precipitation in the last hour of radar loop. Could there be some dry air getting into the storm? The core surrounding the eye though looks as intense as when it was passing Nassau.
Recon in now…will be interesting to see the next few center fixes to see if this is more than a wobble. Would be great news to FL E coast it this is real right turn.
It is looking like an eye wall replacement with the inner eye drifting more northward. Freeport looks to be under the gun.
This may weaken Matthew slightly, but the wind field may expand a bit.
With all the technology the forecasting of movement of this storm has been horrific. Take a look at models from east of the Windwards and just using the 1 to 3 day forecasts and changes daily were pathetic. If the motion to the north continues and a curve to the northeast occurs there will be some serious need to look at NOAA management.
I am delighted if the storm goes out to sea having lived through Cleo, Betsy, Andrew and numerous smaller tropical systems.
As for Klotzbach I believe it is time to get out of long term tropical forecasting as they haven’t been close for years!
I cannot believe the Florida Power and Light outages when their grid stayed up far longer prior to direct hits in the storms I mentioned.
There is no way in hell this storm is turning north or NE. It may not make landfall in Florida but its going to be very close to coast.
We need any good news at this point so keep hoping it will turn some. When it gets past Sebastian the water is only 60 feet deep 10 miles out and not as warm as the gulf stream.
Nobody can exactly predict the weather, especially hurricanes, even a day or two in advance. We simply cannot do that. There is always an element of uncertainty.
Levi – I have been reading your comments for many years on UW. So glad my Son showed me this site. Can you tell me if the hurrican will become annular and if so will it pull more north. Also, is the high going to hold or is it breaking down?
Hey Levi…the NHC 5:00 PM update indicates Matthew is a Cat 4 with 140 mph winds. Those winds are reportedly from the eye wall.
As I write this, the eye wall is hitting Freeport, Grand Bahama. The weather buoy at Settlement point hasn’t recorded a wind over 65 knots.
What the heck is going on?
The inner eyewall has not hit that station yet. Keep in mind the reported intensity of a hurricane is the absolute maximum anywhere in the storm. It’s difficult to see the maximum winds at one particular point. That said, aircraft data suggests that maximum winds right now may indeed be a bit weaker than 140 mph. We’ll see if the next advisory changes, but the storm remains life-threatening regardless.
I just found this site yesterday. You are awesome! No drama, just facts. Thank you very much for this service. You are the man! Looking forward to your next update. I am in Fernandina Beach and we plan on staying unless the track shifts more towards up. Stay safe everyone.
Levi, we need another update! Conditions still uncertain for northen South Carolina in the Myrtle Beach ares
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