A small circulation has formed just west of Tampa, FL along an old frontal boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula. A small cluster of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of this circulation, and the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Emily. Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development, with strong NNW flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico imposing wind shear on the storm. This wind shear may abate in the short-term, but Emily will move inland over the Florida Peninsula near or south of Tampa later today. TD6 is then expected to cross Florida out into the southwest Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday onward, and is not expected to threaten the southeast U.S. coastline. Upper-level winds are expected to remain only marginal at best during this time, and Emily is not currently expected to strengthen. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Bonita Beach, Florida. The primary threat from Emily is locally heavy rainfall, accompanied by some gusty winds to Tropical Storm force. More information is available here.
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