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August 2017

[Sunday] – Harvey Degenerated to Open Wave, but Could Reform as it Approaches Central America

   Posted by Levi at 1:28pm on August 20, 2017

On Saturday, Tropical Storm Harvey lost its closed circulation due to a combination of fast forward motion and the weakening impact of vertical wind shear. Thus, the National Hurricane Center ceased advisories last night. However, the remnants of Harvey remain a well-defined wave axis, and concentrated deep convection has redeveloped over the system this morning. The strong wind shear that plagued Harvey over the last couple of days has begun to relax significantly, and low shear is expected while the system moves through the western Caribbean. Thus, Harvey could easily redevelop into a tropical storm during the next day or two. An air force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Regardless of redevelopment, (ex)-Harvey will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday, and to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. If Harvey becomes a tropical storm again, strengthening could occur prior to landfall, though how much would depend on how soon the storm reforms, if it does so. (ex)-Harvey would then likely move into the Bay of Campeche later in the week, and if the track takes the storm over water for more than a day, restrengthening could occur there as well. Thus, interests in eastern Mexico should also monitor ex-Harvey if the storm reforms. The National Hurricane Center currently gives ex-Harvey a 60% chance of ultimately redeveloping into a tropical storm.




  • harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, It’s Sunday and 92L seems to be at least holding together with storms persistently redeveloping around it I don’t here much talk about it now and it seems to be making progress to South Florida. Is there any chance this could quickly intensify once it arrives in the Bahamas?

  • Peter says:

    Yeah I was wondering the same thing with 92L It looks like it has a build up of convection this mourning as well. Do you think it could organize itself before it hits Florida?

  • Paul Robison says:

    Levi, do you think Harvey will strike the upper Texas coast. I know there’s always a chance, but do you feel it likely?

  • Robert says:

    At best or worse….it will just be a rain event of small proportions! Nothing to get all worked up about! Nothing coming off the African coast, either. And when it does, it’s going to run smack into some dry air!

  • Joseph Brozeph says:

    Hello Levi, Could you give us a comparison of Harvey to Franklin? Or is there a site that you know of that would help me with that?
    You’re site is the most helpful and we have been referring to it since we found it last season. Keep up the great work.

  • Joseph Brozeph says:

    Just found the needed info in the archives on the right of the page. haha

  • FEMA Floodguy says:

    Levi, the GFS is pointing to a landfall Thursday midnight and the Euro is suggesting a stronger landfall Saturday, both in the State of Texas. Because this landfall is trending northward and now potential the US, the timeframe is considerably abrupt. For that reason could you please comment on these developments.. Thank you kindly.

  • Chris Palmer says:

    Latest 0 Z run 8/22 sure is developing Harvey and sending him right towards Corpus Cristi..

  • Kevin Reilly says:

    I would definitely say that the latest guidance is quite troubling for Southeast Texas towards Houston.

    Big time strengthening 1004 mb to 959 mb is tremendous.

    • Brad says:

      Where do you see 959 mb? I think I saw that somewhere, but now I’m only seeing strengthening to TS status, maybe on the cusp of Cat 1. 995 mb.

  • Barrett says:

    When will your next Video be out?

  • Geauxfish says:

    Levi, need a new video!
    We’re in south Louisiana and it’s starting to look bleak with possible 2nd landfall of possible storm/hurricane in Louisiana and 10″-40″ of rain as it stalls. Any good outcomes or all bad from here on out from TX to LA?

  • Robert says:

    Scuttle butt is Houston and most parts of Texas could use the rain!

  • floridian says:

    Can you look at what just spun off of Africa???

    It looks like it has some structure already, which is highly unusual.

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