Levi what does the pattern favor landfalls for the next 4 weeks I live in mobile Alabama?
It’s not really possible to know where future storms will make landfall. You live in a hurricane-prone area, so always keep an eye on the tropical forecast. At hurricanes.gov you can find tropical weather outlooks that inform you about potential tropical cyclones up to 5 days in advance, and when storms form, you can find the official 5-day forecasts there as well.
Do you see Harvey as a hybrid of Allison and Katrina, Levi?
Thank you, Amy updates are truly appreciated. Live in pearland and farm nearl Lagrange
Fantastic analysis Levi. Look forward to tomorrow’s video update. Very serious situation for Houston, TX. I don’t think that can be overstated at this point.
Thanks Levi! You videos are great, I see your graphics on Weather Underground!
We’re preparing for another Allison in Houston
Thank you so much. I live in Livingston Parish, Louisiana – Walker area. The information you provided is excellent. The way you detailed with drawings on the map allows a normal person to understand.
I found you through Souteast Storm spotters on my Facebook.
“Stalling Harvey” looks like a strong possibility at this point! Lots of rain….not moving! Well, snakes and such will be looking for high ground, that’s for sure!
I didn’t hear any discussion about storm surge or storm tides in your post. What do you expect the range of storm tides to be with Harvey?
Storm surge is definitely a big concern with landfalling tropical cyclones, but until we know at least roughly how strong Harvey will be, it’s too early to say how bad that impact will be. Once Harvey is within 48 hours of landfall, you will see watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center that will detail any storm surge threat. NHC can also now issue Storm Surge Watches and Warnings this year, should they be necessary.
Storm surge won’t be all that bad. Maybe 6 to 8 feet, max? Keep in mind that 90 percent of all Himicane damage and 90 percent of all Himacane fatalities occurs within 3 MILES of the beach! However, flooding will become an issue because this thing is slowing down and might stall even further! Two high pressures have it “boxed” in! One to the West of it and one to the East of it! How do I know? Because you can look at the RADAR and it will tell you that “tidbit” of info!
Storm surge impacts are highly location dependent. Only a few feet of water rise can be devastating to wide areas depending on the topography. Storm surge is the deadliest of tropical cyclone impacts and should be taken seriously whenever there is a threat for it.
Six feet of storm surge on the Upper Texas Coast would actually be very devastating for some people and their property. When you live on the coast every inch of water matters and every mile east/west matters for your evacuation plans. I’ve reviewed the inundation graphics on the NHC website but they are a bit hard to interpret considering the uncertainty and resolution.
I threw out 6-8 but now the official forecast is 4 foot storm surge according to the “experts!” (Definition of an “expert” weather forecaster? Someone who gets FULL PAY” for being right 50% of the time!) The bad thing about this system is it’s “speed”! It’s going to slow down and forecasters are saying it may only be 2 miles per hour for days when it hits land! Locked in by 2 high pressures….one to the west and one to the east! Now…give me my FULL PAY for being 90% right!
Being a champion of civil rights, I am deeply offended by the naming of this storm and would like to urge the National Weather Service to reconsider continuing to use the name Harvey for the storm, as we all know that the Lee Harvey Oswald was the lone gun man that killed President John F Kennedy.
that’s utterly ridiculous. That’s only one guy. Also, these are for naming tropical cyclones. There are so many other people named Harvey out there. Are we really going to demonize those people because of one guy? I support civil right as well but this is taking it way too far. (For the record, the example you might use to refute my point, Israel, which was retired in 2001, was because there literally was a civil war and fights happening in Israel and Lebanon during that time period. It’s called the First and Second Intifas. They had a good right to retire it then. Not now (I don’t recall there being civil rights fights over Steve Harvey anytime soon).
Levi, I just learned of your Blog recently, and after viewing your ‘Harvey’ explanation, I can only say, ‘Levi, you are ‘THE MAN’!! I have contributed to your site.. perhaps selfishly, as I have two sons in Louisiana whose homes (and, lives) that could be impacted by this storm, one whose home flooded in August, 2016 from torrential rain.
Your detailed, professional discussions are magnificent, and that is not too strong of an adjective!
Your comments and contribution mean a lot to me Terrell, thank you! I wish safety for your sons.
Levi R O C K S!!!! Your videos are so incredibly informative and explanations are so easily understood. Thank you for all you do. You will have an amazing career. God Bless.
….what is this, the “mutual admiration” society or something?
Anything new I need to know about for tx/la border?
Anything for fire departments to know and consider in southwest Houston, Levi?
I am not the person to ask about that. Local emergency management and NWS offices will likely be coordinating over the next couple days.
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