[Wednesday Evening] Harvey Reforms – Likely to Become a Hurricane and Impact Texas with Dangerous Flooding

   Posted by Levi at 10:50pm on August 23, 2017

Latest Advisory from the National Hurricane Center


27 comments

   

Comments

  • Rick B. says:

    Thanks for the post, Levi. My heart goes out to the people of Texas and Louisiana. I would be shaking in my boots if Harvey was heading toward my state. I can’t even imagine measuring rainfall in feet.

  • Roy says:

    Thanks for the post! This video answered a lot of questions.

  • stanchaz says:

    Levi, I have two general questions.
    I noticed the timestamp on your posts are ahead of mine in New York City, Where are you located?
    Secondly, when previously visiting your site regarding both summer and winter storms, I used to be able to access the Euro models. Are they no longer available? If people contribute to your website would that help restore them?
    I used to rely on Accu-Weather’s Henry Margusity for insightful weather blogs, but he appears to have been unceremoniously dumped (“retired”) by that site after so many years there. Now the only decent blogger there is Frank Strait (in fact he often recommended your site in his blogs).

    • Levi says:

      The timestamp is supposed to adjust to your local timezone, but perhaps it messed up with yours. My timezone is EDT. I’m not sure what you mean about the Euro model, as it is still available on the models page on this site from the “Global” menu.

  • Paul Robison says:

    Levi, will Harvey become a very powerful Cat 3 upon landfall? Lots of people have been talking about that. What do you think?

    • Levi says:

      There is potential for Harvey to strengthen a lot just before landfall, but it’s not clear how much just yet. Right now the NHC’s best estimate is that Harvey will be a Cat 1 at landfall. Regardless of the wind strength, flooding is expected to be a primary danger.

  • Robert says:

    Lets cut to the chase! This is going to be a RAIN event, nothing more….nothing less! Because it’s locked in by two high pressure systems, it’s not moving much at all! So, a ton of rain is going to hit the Texas coast and somewhat inland, possibly 10 to 15 inches total. Move to high ground, get up on the 2nd floor, or move farther inland to keep from drowning!

    • Levi says:

      While rain is likely the biggest overall threat from this storm, it is incorrect to say that it is the only threat.

      • Robert says:

        Well, that knucklehead Cantore on the weather channel has got people scared that this may turn into a MAJOR hurricane, class 3 possibility! PLEASE! Won’t have enough time to develop to that category, true or false?

  • Jennifer Jones says:

    Thank you, Levi! As always, your posts are so informative. You do a great job translating science into layman’s terms for us weather nerds. We live 35 miles SW of Houston and I always depend on your blog posts during hurricane season for the best information.

  • Rick says:

    What about invest 92L? Anything going to happen with it?

    • Levi says:

      It’s in a marginal environment, and NHC currently only gives it a low (10%-20%) chance of development. We’ll keep a wary eye on it.

  • L.B. says:

    It looks like the Hurricane of 1983 that hit Galveston Island? I remember that one as a 9 year old kid.

    • Nate says:

      It looks a bit like Allison (2001) too. Allison stalled on land because of a high pressure system to its north and dropped a lot of rain. As a ridge off of the Florida coast dissolved it then did a loop and steered back to the east dumping rain along the same spots.

  • Greg goodman says:

    Levi do you think it could head further east and affect coastal louisana Mississippi Alabama?

  • Josh Elliott says:

    I live on the western portion of brazoria county, when we had Allison in 2001 our area looked like a lake, what’s the potential for a repeat?

  • SkyGuy says:

    I’d have to say probably not on the Cat 3, Levi. Based on latest guidance, Harvey should have a little problem getting that strong. Still, rapid intensification should happen Thursday and Friday. What do you think?

  • Anonymous says:

    Levi we live in San Antonio, Texas. What’s your gut feel here? Do you think we will be in the bulls eye for the rain? Our local weather folks are being somewhat cautious to say we will get the brunt of the rain. Also, do you think we could see tropical storm winds here? Its happen before. Thanks for all your work on this site. You help a lot of folks.

  • L.B. says:

    I just hope that the Texas people are ready, because the Cinco Ranch area of Katy becomes a flood zone when just a string thunderstorm lingers, major tropical rain would be a disaster.

  • Larry W Hellums says:

    Great site and great job Levi. I live in Rockport TX so am following u close. I also lived in Sinton TX in 1970. Hurricane Celia was coming in with 90 mile an hour winds. About 50 miles out is got smaller and winds went to 180 mph. wild ride. Do not know how much data there was from those conditions to compare to today and that potential. Like u said wind is not the big killer it is the water. Live on the water at 7.5 elev. Finial plans are being made now and want to start at sunup. Have u marked for my guidance. Thanks

  • Bill Wren says:

    Hi Sky Guy
    Love your presentation very clear and decisive. We also live in Rockport about 30 miles north of Corpus Christi. We just built a new two story house on Port Bay right on the water. The house is about 7-1/2 feet above sea level. I’m sure we will flood but not sure what extent. If you were us would you stay or leave?
    Your thoughts?
    – Bill W.

  • Bill Wren says:

    Hi Sky Guy
    Love your presentation very clear and decisive. We also live in Rockport about 30 miles north of Corpus Christi. We just built a new two story house on Port Bay right on the water. The house is about 7-1/2 feet above sea level. I’m sure we will flood but not sure what extent. If you were us would you stay or leave?
    Your thoughts?
    – Bill W.

    • Levi says:

      I can’t assess your personal risk. That is up to you, and if your local officials say you should evacuate, then do so. Things are changing quickly today, so stay up-to-date on the forecast. Be safe.

    • Robert says:

      Well, if you build right on the water, you know the risks! Flooding, storm surge, etc. 90% of all Hurricane damage and 90% of all Hurricane fatalities occur within 3 MILES OF THE BEACH! Evacuation are costly and expensive! If you go inland 20 miles your still gonna lose power more than likely and then you have the risk of tornado activity. But it’s your call! A mandatory evacuation does not mean you MUST go! It just means that if you stay….your on you own!

  • David Mc says:

    I believe the Hurricane of 1919 left a boat in the third story attic of the Fulton Mansion.

    Y’all be careful

  • Leave a Reply to stanchaz Cancel reply

    Your email address will not be published.

    Basic HTML is allowed.






    Copyright © 2012-2020 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
    Contact info: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com