Thank you, Levi. Although too early to forecast the track, you gave enough “maybe’s” to hang on to until more days pass and we watch. I am hoping it gets pulled north and is one of those “fish storms” that bothers no one. At least we have a chance, at this point. Much appreciate your information, always!
You’re giving next to no consideration to what the European has been depicting on its runs? Why is that, Levi?
You were quite dismissive of its scenario for Irma, while giving way too much credence to what the GFS is depicting, especially when you consider its infamous poleward bias, in addition to its wretched proclivity to be overzealous when it comes to overly-amplifying every damn trough that comes off the East Coast.
At this early stage in the game, I feel it’d be prudent and wise to give equal consideration to what both of our top global models are showcasing in terms of their output for Irma. When one begins to fall in line with the other, then you can solely focus ob just that one model. Until that materializes, however, I wouldn’t be so quick to prioritize one model over the other in these types of situations.
No outcome should be discontinued with Irma at this time, when there are clearly a myriad of possibilities currently on the table.
I hope you’ll take this into account in your future videos.
As Levi said, there’s a lot of uncertainty after day 5. At day 5, the location of Irma is nearly identical in the GFS and ECMWF. Not that Levi needs any defending him, but when useful and prudent, he does compare the models. For right now, it’s not, given the spread after day 5 and the agreement leading up to it.
Completely agree. Any hurricane geek knows what the European currently shows @ 240 hours. It certainly could happen, but so could the GFS. I actually thought it was smart to talk big picture and rely on the GFS if only to avoid folks staring at the European’s end result.
Levi is the most balanced of the weather forecasters on the internet, TV, Radio, etc! He’s not an alarmist, like most of the weather channel geeks, who are paid bonuses I suspect, for making it sound like your house, 10 miles inland, will end up falling into the Atlantic Ocean!
At the beginning of every video he states these are his thought and his only. He is not the BBC. If you look for official forecast then you are at the wrong place.
I appreciate all your insight Levi, you never let us down. I do realize there are many other models that are in the mix and anything could happen this many days out. I like the way you use the models and your own obvious expert opinions and look at the whole world as a giant chess board… I remember years ago, I asked you about an upcoming storm in the Atlantic basin and you started answering me by letting me know what was coming around the globe in Western Pacific. I was skeptical until a few weeks later what you had told me was spot on. VERY IMPRESSIVE. I have been monitoring your site ever since and very impressed with your accurate predictions. Much of the internet is filled with knuckleheads trying to sensationalize and predict gloom and doom to upset millions of people for nothing. As you said in the video, we have a week to ten days to determine its path. Keep us informed Levi, we need you insight into weather.
Thanks a lot for the kind words! I appreciate it.
I concur with your sentiments! Levi is the 1st place I go to for tropical weather forecasts for the simple reason that he’s not an alarmist trying to push up tv ratings and scare the begeebeez out of everyone this side of the Mississippi!
The Euro Model should have been mentioned and IMO has been superior in general with tropical systems in the past. It’s way too early to talk about what may happen beyond 7 days but I feel Euro will have a handle on things before GFS.
Sometimes, but not always. The Euro is one of our best models, but it doesn’t always win. Sometimes there’s a really good reason to favor one model over another, but sometimes you just don’t know which is going to be right.
Obviously IRMA is a very, very, serious system.
have been following your site for quite a while and appreciate your insight and information and have learned quite a bit.
In your opinion do you think Irma is going to be a problem down the road for the Florida panhandle. We are having visions of Ivan.
It’s simply too soon to know. Reliable forecasts for hurricanes are sometimes possible 3-5 days in advance, but if Irma were hypothetically to reach the Gulf of Mexico, it could be more than 10 days from now. Might as well throw darts at that point.
Levi…what happened to the analogs that were posted for each tropical system? That stuff was gold! Can you bring it back?
In reality they weren’t a useful forecast tool. They might have been interesting, but not polished enough to be useful, so I removed them last week in favor of making room for other content. Someday if I have the time to make the product better, it might return.
If you like analogues you can do your own research at https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/. Have fun!
If you like analogues you can do your own research here https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/. Have fun! At the moment, Irma looks like other fish storms.
The latest runs of both the ECMWF and GFS models predict serious impacts on the U.S. but in very different locations. Of course, a ten day forecast is unreliable but now is the time to review your hurricane preparedness, not 3 days before landfall.
The GFS model which takes Irma over the outer banks and right up the coast to New York city is a horrific scenario. The only good news is that 10 day forecasts are rarely correct, hurricane Matthew excepted.
Thank you very much for these posts Levi. I run a military weather station on the east coast and have encouraged my young forecasters to listen to your posts individually and corporately for group discussions. It both educates and provides an easily understood synopsis of the various models plus gives a great base for satellite training. I know this is just a side thing you do, but please know it is appreciated and anticipated by us. I do hope you’re able to keep it up. You are unique in your ability to communicate to a wide variety of weather geeks and non-meteorologists alike.
whats the small little storm showing up in the gulf of mexico monday? anything to be concerned about?
The upper level ridge to the north west of Irma has collapsed and the remnant gulf outflow is being fed into Irma. Explosive intensification will occur in less than four days and we will have a serious storm south of guidance in warm water and with low shear. Buckle up folks. Irma is huge.
I’m based in Freeport, Bahamas and Matthew came ashore 7 miles to the west of me. I’m at 26.6N 78.7W
I used to scour everywhere looking for “just the facts” but usually got weather porn.
Thanks for your sound information. Very much appreciated.
Levi, Just made a donation. I am in the hurricane protection business in the Miami Area and have followed you since you were in Alaska.
Thanks and keep up the good work, Kevin
Thanks a lot Kevin! You are very kind.
Personally I think your videos are informative and awesome! Please don’t let negative comments stop you from doing the great job you do!
Beck in south Florida
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