[Saturday] Irma a Dangerous Hurricane – Could Impact Leeward Antilles Next Week

   Posted by Levi at 6:40pm on September 2, 2017


67 comments

   

Comments

  • Eric Fox says:

    Thanks Levi for great updates.

  • Jeff says:

    Hi Levi, A good chunk of drier air wrapping around Irma on the north and west sides, now trying to get to the SE. Does it make it into the inner core and impact intensity, who knows yet?

    https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ATL/11L.IRMA/tc_ssmis/vapor/20170902.1816.f16.x.vapor.11LIRMA.95kts-973mb-189N-425W.82pc.jpg

    Regards,
    Jeff

  • Rosemarie says:

    I appreciate keeping up with all storms forming in the Caribbean…Especially anything heading towards the Bay Islands.
    Than you.

  • harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, You gave several possible forms that the trough may take (split, weighted north, central, weighted south).In your opinion, is there any configuration that would be more likely based on basic weather patterns?

  • EmJay says:

    Thank you so much for these updates! Just a little help with the pronunciation of the islands:
    Antigua= An tee gah
    Barbuda= Bar buue dah
    Anguilla= Ang will ah

  • Legend says:

    Where might the hurricane get stronger? Could it become a CAT-5 north east of the Bahamas ?

  • Ray Lamb says:

    Thank you for highlighting the possible carbbean islands impact. Millions of US citizens here that may be paying little attention to this. I live in Puerto Rico and many are disregarding the threat already. I always await your evaluation as a very objective one that is worth considering. Thanks.

    • Nancy says:

      I’m in St Croix. We get glossed over so no one wants to hear about getting ready. It’s like Hugo is back but no lesson has been learned.

  • Bryan Clarke says:

    Thanks Levi. You broke it down!

  • Dennis says:

    Hi Levi, and thanks for the great report. As usual your analysis and insight are of great value. I’m watching things closely as I am scheduled to fly from Brussels to Miami on Saturday. It’s too early to say just how my trip may be influenced.

    When you consider at a list of spaghetti plots like those shown at http://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots, then who do you reckon provides the most accurate analysis?

    Hey, keep up the great work!

  • CaptDJB says:

    Thank You Levi FL here ALWAYS keeping an eye on the Gulf and Atlantic

  • Paul says:

    Thanks Levi,
    From the USVI

    Paul

  • Rachel says:

    Hey Levi!
    Awesome site and in depth forecasts. I thought you might find it interesting to know that myself, other aircraft dispatchers, and management at the Spirit Airlines headquarters in Miramar, FL use this site as a supplemental weather tool, especially this hurricane season. It’s been a valuable resource for us thus far. Thanks for all you do!

  • Surfer100 says:

    Thanks so much for your very informative and educational updates. Glad to have found your site!

  • Wesley says:

    Hello Levi..always a pleasure listening to your broadcasts..extremely comprehensive and thorough!..thanks for your postings!

  • Stacy says:

    Thank you for this explanation. Keeping a close eye from The Bahamas

  • Tropical Tim says:

    NHC: “Irma is a small hurricane.”

    Irma smashed a ridge in half and is explosively intensifying into a CAT5.

    Great job as usual NHC.
    With a weather service like the NHC who needs war and disease.

  • Warren says:

    Levi – Thank you for your work. Great explanation.

  • tornadokid3 says:

    Good evening Levi,
    Excellent work on your briefings and website!
    Have followed your insights this season and find your expertise
    to be top notch and extremely helpful. Learn something new each
    briefing and event.
    James

  • Bob says:

    As a former resident of a small island in the Caribbean I became an avid hurricane watcher some years ago; and, now that I live in Florida I continue to watch. Thank you Levi for your informative and through discussions of hurricanes and tropical weather conditions – your blog is my first “go-to” for this kind of information.

  • Deb says:

    Hi Levi,

    Beautiful name btw! Glad I came upon your blog!

    As someone who avoids underestimating the weather, I’d like to know if the hurricane were to hit E-US, where would you suggest people go (if we can)?
    I mean, should people head toward western/mid western states to get a head start?

    Sincere Thanks for all of your work and sharing.

    Deb

    • JimCaruso says:

      Hurricanes are primarily coastal storms. You only need to get inland enough to avoid low-lying coastal areas impacted by storm surge, and avoid flood plains of rivers that could be affected by storm surge and/or heavy rainfall. You don’t need to go across the country “toward western/mid-western states.” Yes, hurricanes can have inland affects – mainly river flooding and/or power outages, hence the comment on staying away from river flood plains. It’s way too soon to know what the path is going to look like, but even IF you wanted to get away from the coast now you certainly don’t need to head to the Midwest. And if you wanted to avoid even the inland path, you’ve got almost a week before you’ll have any idea what that path looks like. Best thing you can do this early on, if you live on the coast, is to make sure you have non-perishable food, bottles and bottles of water, and batteries – which you should have throughout hurricane season anyway.

      • Loves2read says:

        Depends on the state…
        Florida is not dry wide and going far enough north to,turn west takes a while…
        If you are in the Panhandle, you have more options than if you are farther south…

  • harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, That upper low east of Irma is weakening and moving north. Is it possible for the upper high steering Irma to fill in when the low moves out and make the storm continue WNW??

  • Bahahurican says:

    Thanks for your usual Excellent presentation and analysis, Levi.

  • PHIL says:

    GREAT WORK LEVI KEEP IT UP… LOOKING FORWARD TO ALL YOU UPDATES PHILDAFLYER

  • Shelley Leyens says:

    Thank you!

  • ATZ says:

    Thanks for the update. Your video helps clarify the weather wonders and fears. From the USVI.

  • Robert says:

    I’m living in the “low country” of South Carolina. Exactly when can we expect our town to get hit and fall into the Atlantic Ocean? Just kidding!

  • Terri Scarborough says:

    Being a new retired resident of Puerto Rico, I just learned about your site! Most informative and understandable. Thank you so much, you will help keep us all safer
    Terri terriscarborough@yahoo.como

  • BeachFoxx says:

    Thanks again Levi! Don’t know what we would do without you! Miss chatting on WU, but do not miss the drama!

    Great job with your explanations!

  • Marty indianrivguy says:

    Thanks Levi!

  • JD says:

    Thank you Levi! You’re hands-down the best source for in-depth storm forecasts. Not only informative but educational as well. You’ve got something truly awesome going on here.

    I hope my meager donation helps.

  • FishOutofWater aka George says:

    Note that the GEFS the ensemble model of the GFS, produced a bimodal distribution of possible landfalls on its 06z3Sept17 model run hour 204. I point this out to highlight the large uncertainty in the track after 5 days.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090306&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=59

    Small differences in the forward speed of the hurricane and the wave speed on the jet stream add up over 4 or 5 days. The GFS gives the storm a higher forward speed than the ECMWF and that effects the track significantly.

    Now’s the time to refill your prescriptions and update your plans if you live on the east coast. One thing is certain, the model runs will continue to produce a wide range of tracks over the coming days. So plan ahead.

  • Navysurfer says:

    Again thanks Levi,

    Live on and off my sail boat in Sarasota, have daughter in collage in Miami, weather is important to say the least, and the ability to get a little lead time as to what to do can be the difference between a inconvenience and downright tragedy.

    Cheers Levi and thanks

    Pops’

    Sarasota FL.

  • Tim Kriehn says:

    Hi Levi, great website. You do a terrific job of taking technical information and putting it in language that is easily understood. Thank you. During a storm like this one, how often do you post a video?
    Tim Kriehn
    Ponte Vedra, Fl

  • Playa Cofi says:

    Hi Levi,

    Vieques here. Thank you for your updates, they are so informative.
    When do you think we may hear from you again :)

  • evassallo says:

    Levi, thanks!!
    Keep us posted, we are living in Puerto Rico….
    When can we expect the next summarize video, they do help a lot!!
    Emilio

  • Gator13126 says:

    They are anxiously awaiting a new Tropical Tidbit video post over at the Category 6 blog at Weather Underground. :)

  • James says:

    Hi Levi, I’ve been following you for years. Few meteorologists if any give as concise and in depth yet understandable explanation as you do with each storm. Really appreciate what you do.

    Many thanks!

  • Rebecca Jacobs says:

    Levi, I Love how you explain things so well! South Floridian for many years. Always look forward to your posts. No hype, extremely factual, and the way you can converse such useful technical information that people such as yourself can get a lot of use from, but also you can convey the info where a layman can get a grasp on all the variables that contribute to the forecasting used by the models we rely upon. You have a wonderful talent. I think your blogs are awesome! Keep ’em coming!

  • Pamela says:

    Hi Levi:

    St. Thomas checking in here. Our island is getting as prepared as it can but supplies are growing thin. I’m flying out at the 11th hour. Ironically, the storm I’m fleeing FROM could potentially hit the place I’m flying TO. oy. anyway – thanks for keeping us informed and up to date!

  • Chad says:

    Very nicely done. The YouTube video. I find ways to explain storms as a captain of a private sail boat in New England area. You got it perfect. With all the information we can access now, you got it just right. Hopefully no tragic storm, but looks like a maybe for USA.

  • Desmond Sharkey says:

    Levi,
    Thank you for the very informative content.
    I’m in Sint Maarten / St. Martin. This morning I took the 10:00am Causeway bridge opening, and then the 10:30am Simson Bay Bridge opening. Anchored in the bay, as the winds are still SE. I’ll probably leave Monday morning, winds E, or better, ENE / NE. Heading for Guadeloupe, or even Martinique. No reason to stay here. Best guestimates are Irma passing slightly on the north side. How close? Who knows?
    At least we here have had a week to prepare. Most boat people have their boats as secure as possible by now.
    A big problem is the many unattended / junk boats. These often break loose, and slam into other boats, tearing them free from their good tackle. Even Gonzales, two years ago, though not so strong, blind-sided people, and many hundreds of boats were damaged / destroyed.
    Anyway, good luck everyone, and Levi, again thanks.

    Des on Bahia catamaran

  • Sharon says:

    Levi, thanks for all you do for all of us. You explain it all so well. Looks like as if today Irma may be heading for the East Coast. Praying it won’t!

  • Kim says:

    Hi Levi! I have followed you religiously since I moved to Houston, Texas 2 years ago! I also followed you when I lived in AZ previously, although not much happens there on the wx front. Having your daily videos prior to Harvey allowed me to properly prepare WAY in advance! I told my coworkers about Harvey’s potential devastation but they said “we’ve been through it before. We will be fine”. You really set my Monday at ease and I truly enjoy learning something new every time. I look forward to your next video soon!! Thank you for your calm, unbiased, professional and intellectual guidance. It is SO appreciated. – Many thanks!! Kim

  • gilkesm says:

    LEVI was hoping f or an UPDATE TODAY SUNDAY.. I am IN ANTIGUA and really enjoyed your take yesterday!! I HOPE YOU CAN GIVE US SOME INSIGHT of what IRMA is doing now !!
    she is on my door step!

  • PuntaCana Mike says:

    Thanks for the reports Levi. Easy to understand. I am in Punta Cana and i have been trying to reassure people traveling here that given the projections, that Irma should deliver northwest early winds followed by southwest winds…both of which have to cross the land, thus not all that bad for the region.Your thoughts are appreciated.

  • Robert says:

    My educated guess looking at all the models, prognostications, and “expert” opinions looks to me like a 50-50 chance this thing hits the East Coast somewhere between Jacksonville, Florida and Cape Hatteras, N.C.! Evacuations are costly and physically draining, but looks like those areas mentioned above will be evacuating inland, with major traffic jams, price gouging hotels and a big run on those “generators” that at least can keep your cell phone charged up!

  • Erin says:

    Looks like the chances are increasing for FL as of today but is there still a small chance this will go OTS and not affect anyone in the US?

  • Splash3392 says:

    Some people are listening. Bought additional water tonight and I wasn’t the one buying water. Central Florida area Walmart is about half empty, publix was better but still the shelves were low. Glad to see people doing things ahead of time

  • Nick says:

    Thank you Levi. Sitting in Antigua following you closely. Hurricane plan in place although a southerly shift – or more accurately a delay in the north west shift could still easily wipe out home and business on Wednesday!
    I think you are gaining a great many new followers this season- I believe people are switching to your blog from elsewhere in droves.
    Realise you have to have a life and indeed do your research but there are some of us who will be hanging on for your blogs on Monday and Tuesday – so no pressure then!!

  • stan chaz says:

    The latest model forecast runs on Levi’s site seem to be increasingly targeting Floriida with a widespread hit.
    First we have a total solar eclipse slashing across the heart of America,
    immediately followed by the costliest American natural disaster ever in Texas.
    Pure coincidence, right?
    Now Mother Nature seems to have Mar-a-Lago and vicinity in its sights.
    Deadly hurricanes are never a laughing matter,
    but perhaps Trump voters should start repenting for what they’ve done!
    Seriously, how do you even consider mass evacuations in the face of a cat 4 or cat 5 storm
    – one that may veer any which way as you’re trying to flee it?

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