Support TT[Sunday Evening] – Irma Expected to Directly Impact Leeward Islands Beginning Late Tuesday
89 comments
« Previous Entry Next Entry »
Comments closed
Basic HTML is allowed.
Support this site:
89 comments
« Previous Entry Next Entry »
Copyright © 2012- 2024 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
Contact: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com
Privacy Policy: tropicaltidbits.com/privacy-policy.html
Comments
Levi, it’s CAM-PEECHEE, not CAMPAYCHAY!
The accepted pronunciation depends on where you live.
I love here in Merida, Yucatan….. One state over from Campeche. It is absolutely not pronounced “campeechee”. He said it correctly “campaychay”
*live* here
In spanish it’s called Campaychay
It’s not really, since we’re being pedantic, in spanish the “e” is pronounced like “eh” so it’s Cam-peh-cheh. Source: am Mexican.
Cam-peche is correct, derived froum camp-estre, or from the countryside, as in camp-esino, a person from the countryside, which is also not com-pay-sino. So, a campesino, named Pedro (not Paydro), who lives in Campeche, grills food, style campestre.
Nice job…W Palm Beach here but at present in Spain. May have to come home earlier than expected so I can prep……
Irma ER-mah
Really good info. Watching this closely from palm beach county, Florida. We missed the brunt Mathew due to a slight wobble.
as always, thank you
Hi, I’d like to know what you think are the chances that puerto rico will be impacted by hurricane irma
Impacts of some sort are currently very possible, as the NHC mentioned in their official forecast. How severe those impacts are depend on how close the center of Irma gets to Puerto Rico. Pay attention to what NWS San Juan, NHC, and your local officials are saying about the storm as it draws nearer.
Thank you so much from Comerio, Puerto Rico
as always, thank you
Levi can pronounce anything, anyway he damn well pleases, he doesn’t need you arseholes chiming in
Tru dat…lol
Great job. I don’t think the Gulf of Mexico should be to worried right now, do you?
Good job, very informative
excellent synopsis, great detail explained all of the issues
Great job. I don’t believe the Gulf of Mexico has a lot to be worried about with this one, do you?
Thanks for the excellent analysis, Levi! Much appreciated! Love how you teach as well as explain all the factors that influence path, etc., of the storm! You are the best!
Thanks for the intelligent analysis/forecasting, not wishcasting hysteria.
Thank you very much. Anxious to hear your opinion of the Gulf Coast states – Florida panhandle/Alabama Gulf Coast.
Thank you for your clear and concise forecasting. You’re a pleasure to listen to.
Mr. Cowan,
Thanks very much for generously and skillfully using your very considerable talents to keep us well informed during this dangerous hurricane season.
Do you typically use a time zone other than eastern time?
Regards,
Ray D.
Thank you, Levi. I appreciate your explanations and the calmness you portray in your delivery. I also, agree with Wilt, pronounce any way you choose! You are great and I always feel more encouraged with fact than hype. Thank you. Here off-island in Fernandina Beach, Florida, Matthew flooded our area but good!! Hoping not to go through that again. (I know, no one else wants it either)!
Thanks for the update Levi.
Thank you from all of us in the Eastern Caribbean islands. Your information is very valuable.
Great explanation. So it looks like the panhandle should stay pretty clear of this one from what I gather ?
Thanks againLevi WU lurking since before Katrina and cannot say enough good about your comments Missed u when you couldnt.
So refreshing to have an intelligent, informed scientist explaining these hurricanes. I’ve learned more from Levi in 3 weeks than from all the NWS broadcasts, and TV weatherpeople in 30 years.
Thank You Levi….. TH-ank U
Levi, many thanks for the great analysis. Looks like Mother Nature is rolling up her sleeves for another crap shoot.
In the mean time we can all keep calm and prepare.
Thank you for talking about Turks and Caicos I’m watching closely for this island many friends and family there
I find myself checking how much time is left in the blog post, much like a movie I don’t want to end, each time. SO much clear information each time, I want to keep on listening and learning.
Thank You!
I live in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. No one here seems worried about Irma.. Should we be??
Well, even if Irma passes to the north of Hispaniola, the mountains could induce heavy rains and cause flash flooding risks in parts of the island, so keep up to date on the NHC forecast and the potential hazards listed for Hispaniola.
I’m watching this closely from South Florida, and the in-depth analysis is much appreciated. Thank you!
I am in the Gulf of Mexico, sailboat, part time liveaboard, A daughter in collage in Miami
The long range forecast of the barometric pressure is what scares me the most.Nothing to stop Irma from getting bigger and much more dangerous.
I so appreciate all your hard work, Levi
Thanks again,
Pop,s
Levi,
I noticed that tonight you cited only the GFS when discussing Irma’s future location and the potential tracks of the ridges and troughs. Usually you compare and contrast the GFS with the ECMWF. Maybe this time they were very similar? Just curious.
Thanks for all you do.
Rebecca
Sometimes I just pick a model as an illustration. If comparison of more than one model would prove informative, I will sometimes do that, but sometimes it’s simpler to just show one.
Thanks!
Will the mountains of PR and Hispaniola diminish thenstrength of the storm?
Thank you for keeping us updated. I live in the Turks and Caicos Islands which is really really close to the Bahamas. We are watching this storm very closely and are very afraid if it passes close to us…but even more so if we receive a direct hit. We had Ike in 2008 and with it power was out for almost a year. It was dark times. People didn’t know what to do. We had to improve our primitive survival skills. Ike was a cat 3 or 4 at the time.
Thanks for the useful information, Levi. As you can imagine, people in the Bahamas are taking this somewhat more seriously than they may have before Matthew and Joaquin…. Hoping for the best, but watching this southward trend to the track with… trepidation…..
How come you don’t run the European model as much on tidbits
Only a limited amount of data is provided by ECMWF to the public. Some companies and universities can afford to acquire more data from them, and some have paid subscriptions for that data.
Ask for some donations and see if you can get enough to pay for a subscription. There are lots of people who come here looking for high quality information and I’m sure many would be willing to donate.
Levi provides high quality information already. If it means that much to you, you need to find out how much it is and cut Levi a check for the amount
Watching the HH make a second pass through the eye now. Decent pressure drop. That GFS is looking surprising past 5 days. Running S to N through inland Florida at 900-930mbar would be the second catastrophe of the season. Let’s hope that Great Lakes Low builds to throw Irma a curveball! Cuba interaction may also help?
As of the am looking more likely to hit Florida then curve north
Great job very informative.
Thank you for your level headed analysis and discussion. The amount of wish casting that is spreading like a disease across social media is beyond callous and disgusting. Having just finished rebuilding from Sandy and being diagnosed with PTSD from nearly 5 years of living in a post Sandy nightmare, your breakdown and “real talk” discussions are greatly appreciated. I have to assume anyone wishing for a natural disaster to hit their area has obviously never suffered through recovering from said disaster.
Thank you again and look forward to future discussions.
Appreciate your ability to breakdown the science while able to interpret it in layman’s terms.
None of the scenarios show a course with Irma entering the Gulf. Do you believe between the trough and ridge the Gulf is safe?
Well, I wouldn’t say the gulf is safe. If Irma tracks quite far south near Cuba or the eastern U.S. trough leaves quicker, there’s a chance it could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but obviously there’s a lot of uncertainty right now. Still waiting for some questions to be answered.
Thanks for the good analysis. I would llike to see the spaghetti charts along with your thoughts about them.
Appreciate your ability to breakdown the science while able to interpret it in layman’s terms.
None of the scenarios show a course with Irma entering the Gulf. Do you believe between the trough and ridge the Gulf is safe?
Thank you for sharing your amazing wealth of knowledge. I stay glued to your updates this time of year in Wilmington, NC
Hi Levi–my family is on the panhandle near Destin. What are the chances that this part of the panhandle will be in Irma’s path?
It’s still too early to know if Irma will get into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm could also stay east of Florida entirely. We still have more questions than answers today, but that’s because Irma is still at least 5 days from Florida. In time we will be able to narrow it down, but not yet.
ECMWF runs 2X daily. At what time or approximate time are the model runs available on this site? Sitting in south west Florida and looking forward to the latest ECMWF. Really hoping it disagrees with the 06z Sep4 GFS!
The ECMWF starts updating at approximately 2pm EDT and 2am EDT each day.
Thank you
The “speed” of a hurricane, how “fast” is it moving is critical to damage control and flooding issues. What, in your “expert” opinion, is classified as a “fast” moving hurricane?
Such a clear….easy to understand and very through forecast…one of the best I’ve ever heard…tks so much…you have a great talent!!!!
Levi,
I am hyper vigilant after 08/2005.
Your work is most excellent and greatly appreciated.
Have elderly folks that need to get out of dodge early on. Looking forward to your next post.
great stuff Levi, we live in marathon and have always wondered how high the storm surge could get here since there is nothing to “back stop” the water and therefore build the wall of water. any insight into this would be welcomed. thanks
Anything you want to know about your specific locale is knowledge your local officials could tell you, not me. If a storm surge warning is issued for your area, you will also be able to see a zoomable map at hurricanes.gov showing levels of expected storm surge inundation at fine detail.
I would venture to say every model run gets better and better for forecasting from here on out, I am in Sarasota on sailboat and damn it looks horrible for me.
I know much can change during the next week, Levi can I ask how much for the model runs? just curious. Also how comfortable are you with the change in projected path, tough question I know .
Again thank you for all your hard work, this is A very dangerous storm, the projected Barometric pressures are down right horrific if true, I saw 850 with the gfs I think,
Sincerely,
Pop,s Sarasota fl.
I’m in Sarasota too. Surf reports show our winds gusts up to 120MPH Monday.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Sarasota, Fla is on the West Coast of Florida last I looked? If this Hurricane comes on land in South Florida, it will not be a hurricane by the time it passes Sarasota, Fla. Land tends to diminish hurricanes quite rapidly and then just turns them into rain events?
No, the percentage values give you the chance of receiving hurricane force winds at a given point based on the current forecast.