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[Wednesday Evening] – Tracking Hurricanes Irma, Katia, and Jose – All Threats to Land
Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Irma
Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Jose.
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Great video Levi and I love your site; I use itt throughout the year. Super random but how on earth do you make these videos without a single “um” muttered. I’m waiting for the day it happens…
Ditto! I wonder the same thing!haha
The only way I know is public speaking practice. Toastmasters International has their members count their fillers such as this. A pause is much more powerful than an um.
Telemarketers are trained to use the word um to make them seem humble, and trustworthy, um is used to make a buyer let their guard down to buy the product. I have attended marketing seminars and um is a very powerful selling tool.
I heard him say it many times
Thank you, once again, Levi! Loved the part where you talk about not paying attention to different forecast maps, etc., but only to the Nat. Hurricane Center, Emergency Management for your area, etc. On Facebook I see all kinds of misinterpretation of information out there and try to educate also. Keep up the good work that you do!
Ditto. Levi’s posts are unrivaled for information and educational purposes, but when formulating an action plan, the NWS, NHC, and local met and emergency offices MUST be utilized foremost.
Thanks very much Levi. Your warning about using spaghetti models to make decisions needed to be said with all the garbage posts I’ve seen using it on FB and the twatter. None of the people posting them have any idea what they mean, and they are being used to portray a false sense of confidence in the track. In some cases, they are being used to deliberately cause panic among other people who don’t know what they are looking at. If you don’t have some education in tropical meteorology and haven’t spent long years studying models, the best thing to do is not look at them at all and depend on the official NHC track.
excellent presentation, Levi. Very glad you addressed the model tracks, you are correct, they are tools and in the hands of such minds as you possess they mean something! Thanks for all you do to keep us safe.
Love your informative style and details! Just donated to your site. Learned of your website through our daughter Alexandra Klufas, a Senior at Wellesley College in Massachusetts and a passionate student of atmospheric science (she would be appalled if she knew I mentioned her). We have been following you daily for the last few days from Seekonk, MA / Charlestown Beach, Rhode Island. Just finished reading Sudden Sea by Scotti about the Hurricane of ’38. Will keep following you this Season! – Thank you!
Thanks so much Lydia! You are very kind.
Excellent job Levi!! So glad you added the warning about the spaghetti models! People at my office tend to look at them and think that is the way its gonna go!
I beg everyone to understand that this storm may not weaken much. Some models such as the GFS show it getting stronger when it hits the Gulf Stream as it approaches Florida. Remember also that both the NHC and the models have not predicted how strong this thing would be when it hit the lesser Antilles.
Storms approaching the Carolinas may get improved outflow when the storm gets pulled up by the trough in the subtropical jet stream. Thus the dry air wrapping in may only impact the intensity about the time the storm makes landfall and have very little effect on the damage.
Folks in the Carolinas I have talked to are taking this very seriously as they should. The possible track towards the mountains would bring devastating rains and possible flash floods in the southern Appalachians so folks there need to get ready and have a plan.
Levi, Thank you for your comprehensive predictive analysis, I enjoy your briefings. Your caution about the spaghetti plots was so on point! Being prepared is so important! I think folks don’t want to run up the credit card getting prepared so they dismiss the possibility of HKP! Human Killing Power. Again, thanks for the really well put together Hurricane analysis.
The 1st thing I do when I sit down at my computer is see if you have posted an update; informative and easy to understand. Thank you so much.
Ditto. This is a great site!
[…] [Wednesday Evening] – Tracking Hurricanes Irma, Katia, and Jose – All Threats to Land Posted by Levi at 12:13am on September 7, 201 […]
The university of Miami RSMAS ocean heat content map helps explain why Irma is so strong and why it could stay strong. The heat content of the tropical Atlantic is higher this year from the Antilles to Florida and the Carolinas than it was in the crazy year of 2005.
https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/irma/ohc_aQG3_2017_249_1200.irma.int.gif
The developing high heat content early this summer is what led me to say that this would be a stronger than average hurricane season.
Yes, you do a pro job on your videos.
Yes George. Thanks for that.
To my mind its hard to imagine a more perfect storm that Irma.
Everything about her track has been utterly textbook.
The accumulated momentum is astonishing.
Very good warning at the end of the video. People need to be careful where they are putting stock and whether or not they understand what they are looking at.
Hi Levi,
I got your blog from my son and I need to tell you how excellent each of your analysis is!!! All kudos to you!!! Told a lot of friends to read your blog!!!
Thank you so much!!!
Living in Mobile, Alabama and watching Irma very closely!
Best wishes and keep on going,
Joerg
I LOVE LOVE LOVE this site too and just donated in hopes that you’ll keep it up. Your educational and non-emotional delivery is very much appreciated. I often wish I had gone to school for meteorology but I would ONLY want to cover hurricanes and not snow storms. 🙂 I found out about the Hebert Box last year and have been waiting for a storm to cross one of the two boxes. Clearly Irma has done just that and seems likely to hit Florida (where I have lived my entire life- gulf side). What are your thoughts about this theory? Valid? Is the reasoning simply because of the curvature of the earth and typical atmospheric cycles? Just want to understand more.
Again, THANK YOU for all that you do!
Polly
Outstanding job. Thank you and keep up the good work.
Anyone know why I can’t hear sound for Levi’s videos? I’ve tried watching on his site, as well as going to tropical tidbits youtube channel. I can hear music, other news casts just fine, but, I get no sound from just the tropical tidbits videos. Any suggestions?
Check the Speaker button to the right of the Play and Forward buttons; make sure it’s on and not ‘mute’. Maybe that’s the reason, sound muted.
My sloop is presently stored ashore in a boat yard in Marathon, Florida, which gives me a serious interest in Irma.
I am close to the completion of my sixth circumnavigation, two via Cape Horn and several setting world records. I mention this only to provide a basis for claiming to have some understanding of weather.
I check several sources of weather information and your analysis is the one I find by far the most informative and useful. I will be expressing my thanks after I send this by hitting the donate button.
I second the comments of another viewer who applauds your comments about not viewing projected tracks as being certain.
You are providing a significant public service, and I wish you deserved success in your career.
Sometime when it’s not so busy, would we be able to get a discussion on the limitations of ‘spaghetti plots’? I know it’s a certainty/uncertainty kind of thing, but I’d love to hear more about their correct usage…what a given set of runs ‘actually’ means for forecasters and laypersons.
Sitting tight in Savannah – watching closely. I appreciate the understandable analysis Levi.
Thank you, Levi. A bunch of us owe you a beer.
Paypal button in the upper right corner works. 😉
Levi look forward to your presentation. Terrific
Thank you for another very informative video. With horses in Jacksonville we’re evacuating out to Pensacola on Friday and will continue to monitor Irma’s progress in case things shift. Take care and stay safe!
I love spaghetti but will adjust my thinking as instructed. Keep it up!
Thank you so much Levi for your updates. What is the possibility of Irma coming into the gulf and if it does what impact it any would it have on Texas with it being so strong and large.
Thank you!
These are great posts. Like probably everybody else following this site, I’m fascinated with weather phenomena, and your conversational style is great. Thanks!
Best explanation heard since Irma was named and started her pathway, and I am “junkie” for as many sources of information I can access…THANK YOU!! #1 useable summary…There is a place in heaven for people like Levi.
The projections are for the storm to maintain Cat 5 status till right before landfall. If it doesnt hit the mountainous terrains on the larger islands, like its being projected it wont, then why are they expecting a downgrade before striking/near striking Miami? Is it do to water depth or heat? Just wondering aloud..or are they being optimistic that it will be a Category 4 then? Just curious and sorry for what is probably just pure ignorance on my part.
Disregard. I didnt see the video which does it explain at the end about the expected shear coming from the west that could knock it down somewhat.
Great video Levi as always! One thing you forget to mention a diurnal tide, which is two equal high and low tides every lunar day (about every six hours). The dramatic, concave shape of the east coast from North Carolina to northern Florida, called the Georgia Bight, funnels the rising tidal bulge into a smaller and smaller area as it approaches the coast. The Lowcountry is at the center of the curve, resulting in the highest tides. Port Royal Sound, for instance, has an average tide height of about 8.0 feet, while in Jacksonville, Fla., it’s about 2.5 feet and in the Florida Keys only a foot or so. If she makes landfall at high tide add that to a hurricane surge, and you are talking about a lot more water. Being from the Mississippi Gulf Coast my grandfather lost his oldest daughter in a hurricane in 1913 on Cayman Brac. I learned a lot about hurricanes from him. He was a sailing ship Captain (schooner) and later came to the US. I was on a ship over in Jacksonville during hurricane Andrew. Keep up the great work.
Irma is gaining speed…how will this increase effect the possibility she will NOT TURN after Cuba and go up WEST coast of Florida and/or into Gulf and MS coast?
Could you address the jet stream’s ability to influence a storm of her magnitude?
Making a donation but only small reflection of how we value your effort…
Hi Levi
You’ve got a couple of mentions in Thursday’s NY’s NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/upshot/how-to-follow-hurricane-irma.html?mwrsm=Email
Or
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/upshot/how-to-follow-hurricane-irma.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&referer=https://www.nytimes.com/
A blue highlighted phrase for the Euro takes the reader to your site. One of your tweets about that follow the flight path is also shown with your name.
Other weather sites are noted as well. I thought you’d like to know where extra traffic to your website might be coming from since your site was mentioned in The Times.
Janet
Amazing site! Found via link from NY Times article. Will be bookmarking. Thanks for all of your hard work.
Do you feel that trough moving in over texas will be strong enough to steer Irma east of the FL coast??
I just ran the European model animation for Jose into next week….let’s hope that doesn’t happen…another hit on the bahamas would be catastrophic
What are the chances of it being a cat 1 over the atlanta area. Some models seem to indicate that path.
seeing projected winds for Atlanta on the 11th at 40 – 45 mph
projected gusts, not sustained
Oh, I feel like the models are under playing the westward turn.
why would you feel that way?
Because of the euro model. Look at the 12z run
I can’t thank you enough! Please can you continue to provide the level of detail for Jose as you did for Irma? Those of us in the islands are so often overlooked and it is difficult to find detailed reports for what might occur.
Your videos on Irma – especially the ones explaining why the models differed and that Irma had a chance to track further south was extremely helpful!
You have a lot of fans in the islands! I’m in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Great site and great explanations. I’d love it even more if you err on the side of being more technical rather than less. Reading the comments suggests your audience is smart and knowledgable and looking for more than a weather forecast. If you think of what you’re doing as teaching as much or more than informing you’ll hit the right level it seems to me.
Thank you, once again, thank you. Your commentary is so valuable. I hope everyone remains safe no matter which storm and what they decide to do. All prepped packed…..just not sure if going is better than riding it out as the track is very uncertain. Prayers and thoughts to you islanders who are storm riders no matter the track. God Bless!
Great site. Thank you for taking the time and work to put this information out. Much appreciation from South Florida. Keep up the good work!
And let us know who’s in the running for the first Tidbits weather girl. Kate Parker gets my vote!
(Donation made)
Are there instructions on how to use this site anywhere? I find it very confusing!
And I am speaking specifically of the “Forecast Models” section.
Levi,
Love the site. Just curious as to what you think the most dangerous/destructive path Irma could take. Would going directly up the middle of Florida be the worst? Or possibly riding the coast and storm surge and flooding be the worst?
Thanks again !
Ryan
Folks, Irma ain’t gonna weaken think about the Gulf Stream and rapid intensification near the Florida Coast. Max winds could be near 200 M.P.H. sustained at landfall.
Thanks Levi
Great site! The question I have is about the influence of Cuba’s mountainous terrain influencing the intensity and/or track of Irma. Based on the latest NHC 5pm track (9/7) the center may pass very close to Cuba’s north coast. Hypothectically, if the eye remains offshore what impacts does the high terrain have on IRMA?
Keep up the good work!
Ive been following your posts since back in the old Wunderground days Levi. You are always the voice of reason. Thank you for all you do.
I donated to your site. I guess every little bit helps.
Thank you for providing content that is in depth and easy to understand. We are in Charleston SC and understand that evacuations will take place Saturday. Our question is what direction is the “safe” direction to go? It feels like we would have to travel 2 states away to be out of the current 5pm cone of doom. Thanks!
Levi,
You are without a doubt one of the most incredibly intelligent men I have ever read a blog about! I look forward everyday to reading about Irma and thank you for keeping us all posted! Words simply cannot describe how grateful I am for coming across your site.
Thank You so very much again!!!
Levi – this is great work. Needing Update tonight -PLEASE
Levi..when you do this evening report can you tell us why its path shifted west and isan easterlypath along coast still possible
So Raleigh NC is out of danger?
Levi,
As a resident of the NEW ORLEANS area, I am very interested in the path of hurricanes and the science behind what makes them tick.
Your style and in depth analysis is far superior to any of our local weathermen/women. I especially admire the way you try and educate your readers as opposed to just talking at them.
Keep up the fantastic work!