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[Friday Afternoon] – Irma Barreling Toward Florida; Jose to Pass Close to Barbuda; Katia Close to Landfall in Mexico

   Posted by Levi at 8:13pm on September 8, 2017

Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Irma

Visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Hurricane Katia and Hurricane Jose.


50 comments

   

Comments

  • Anonymous says:

    Thank you Levi! So you think Pensacola is going to be ok??

    • Levi says:

      Well, given current trends it wouldn’t be surprising to see tropical storm force wind gusts as far west as Pensacola, so some power outages are possible.

      • Mary Ziegler says:

        Can we be confident that there will not be a hit on the western panhandle? I am concerned because so many evacuees have headed this way and would have little time to leave again.

  • Aimee says:

    What levels of storm surge may be seen if Tampa takes a direct hit? I am worried sick about that possibility. I don’t think the Gulf coast infrastructure is prepared for something like this.

  • Don says:

    Thank you- I appreciate the even tempered dissemination.

  • Andrew says:

    Why the dramatic shift north in the Florida straits? The storm’s path has been a consistent gradual WNW for 5 days. What is going to cause it to suddenly turn northward as opposed to continuing its WNW track out into the Gulf? Thanks.

    • Visioen says:

      It’s discussed in the previous video around 6:30.

      • Andrew says:

        Thank you, Visioen. To my untrained eye that steering mechanism from the Plains states didn’t look terribly big or robust, so I’d be surprised if it were sufficient to effect such a dramatic 90° turn to the north. And in fact the past 24 hours has shown us that the predicted northern track is moving to the west, almost to Florida’s Gulf coast.

        Furthermore, the extreme 90° turn to the north was predicted long before that steering mechanism from the Plains states even began to form, which suggests to me that the dramatic 90° turn to the north, at precisely the point where it would scare the most people, moving right up the middle of the peninsula where *everyone* would be at risk, was deliberate misinformation – perhaps even wishful thinking – on the part of the climate fanatics in the media who salivate at the thought of blaming Irma on global warming (I’m not talking about Levi).

        Prior to Thursday there was virtually nothing to support a dramatic 90° turn to the north, especially given Irma’s several days of steady WNW movement. Yet there it was, on every model. How…convenient.

        Here’s my layman’s guess – it turns north gradually and tracks up the Gulf coast of Florida, maybe even off the coast slightly.

        • wai says:

          Your untrained eye has 20/20 hindsight.

        • Phil says:

          Watch the video from Monday the 4th 7min mark. Levi does a great job explaining POSSIBLE tracks. Forecasting that far out is not an exact science, and meteorologists do the best they can with the current tools. The model runs were surprisingly accurate to the actual track Irma has taken so far.

          Your layman’s guess is fine. But would you bet your house on it? I’m not a fan of undue hysteria and hype either from the media, but this is a very serious storm and an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure. No matter where it hits, there will always be people who “didn’t think it could happen to them!”.

        • mBoutte says:

          It is not an “extreme” ninety degree turn. Irma has been moving about 285 – 290 for days now. Models depict an eventual NNW track of about 335-345, perhaps paralleling the west coast of FL, which is angled toward the NNW. So it is in actuality only about a 45 to 50 degree gradual turn over 48 hours or so.

    • Levi says:

      Irma is about to encounter a gap between two ridges: one to the east of Florida that has been steering it WNW to this point, and one over the western Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a shortwave trough dropping into the SE U.S. will enhance this gap between the ridges, and the hurricane will have no choice but to turn northward into that gap.

      • Steve Adey says:

        Levi is rhere any 3D tool around to visualise the air masses that are steering Irma?

  • David says:

    Thanks Levi. Excellent clarity.

  • Anonymous says:

    I am not seeing the steering currents to turn it north. It seems like there is some group think going on. Could you discuss that in your next update.

    • Jennifer says:

      Watch his previous posts and he discusses the different possibilities for Irma, showing the high and low pressure systems over the U.S. and Atlantic Ocean that are steering her. It all depends on the strength and timing of the movements of those systems.

  • BD says:

    The Current Wind Direction and Layer Mean Wind Steering charts it does seem to support the current predicted storm track.

  • Hoff511 says:

    Thank you Levi! I am shaking my head in disbelief as This unfolds. Your daily videos mean so much.

  • Jamie says:

    Will Jose track the same way as Irma?

  • Kaz says:

    ERC appears to have ended. Eye is clearing. Lots of rugged terrain in Cuba will likely disrupt the storm inflow. But, Irma has shown resiliency. Very little sheer, moist mid level atmosphere, and record high surface water temps may provide enough fuel for a span of re-intensification prior to S. Fla. landfall. 10 hours of open water to ingest. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a minimal cat 5 with winds near 160-165 crossing the middle keys.
    If the storm drops in intensity as it rubs along Cuba, don’t be fooled. Irma is a beast. However, a full landfall in Cuba would be incredibly difficult for any storm to fully recover from.
    With all the competing atomspheric and environmental components to consider, Irma has been a truly fascinating system to follow.

  • Joseph says:

    I actually was appalled this afternoon after watching CNN, there was a bar room owner talking about selling beer after the hurricane. I thought alcohol, and lottery sales was stopped after a hurricane hit an area? It was during the 2004 hurricane season.

  • Friend of Aries says:

    Excellent overview. Thank you very much

  • Dennis says:

    Thanks for that excellent report Levi. It looks bad for my many friends and neighbors in Naples. My thoughts are with them. I plan to return next Saturday. I fear that the damage to our community will be significant. Stay safe everyone!

  • mykldee says:

    Thanks Levi for your contribution. Excellent commentary no BS

  • Skeptic says:

    So every model including this site form 24 hours ago is wrong. Everyone thought the eye wold cross to the right of Miami, ie, eastern FL. Now it’s to the west of Florida. Miami will barely get any winds. From the forcasted 180 mph, to 90 now according to the weather channel.

    And still a day out. If she takes longer to shift north Miami may end p with tropical storm winds.

    So much for the storm of the century hitting Miami.

    I bet all those people who were forced to leave Miami and stuck in traffic care livid.

    • Joseph says:

      A hurricane has different aspects, while people tend to focus on winds, they forget about tidal surge & flooding as the water builds even days afterwards. Miami is not safe.

    • Albert says:

      Who forecast 180 in miami? The most I saw was 140-150.

  • Seriously? says:

    Skeptic maybe you should go stand on the beach in Miami and complain when the winds aren’t strong enough for u

  • ge2655 says:

    Levi,
    As always, great dedication and presentation. I marvel at your ability to calmly present the facts without any hype.

    A bit of information you may find interesting.

    Ground Zero for Florida Power and Light’s South Florida recovery operations has been relocated from Naples to Gulfstream Park (racetrack) in Hallandale which is approx. mid way between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami on Federal Highway (U.S. 1)

    This move began yesterday. Operational facilities are being erected. Supplies and recovery personal are here and more on the way.

    Regards,
    -Gary

  • Anonymous says:

    Does ECMWF make 10m wind data available?

  • wai says:

    Great stuff Levi. I grew up in Miami in the 60s and 70s and I have to laugh at the commenters here complaining that the models were off by 50 or 100 miles, 5 days in advance. The quality of the modelling now is simply amazing in the face of an extraordinarily complex and chaotic system like the global climate. Even more pathetic are the conspiracy kooks. You and your brethren are saving countless lives. Thank you.

  • Merv says:

    First of all, thank you for the very informative videos. I go to you first to get news on Irma. Quick question Levi, it looks like Cuba is getting a direct hit and might linger over land for a while. How much do you think that will effect the hurricane or is this beast just too healthy for that land mass to effect it that much? Hope to hear an update soon thanks again!

    • Levi says:

      It might weaken it a bit, but Irma is not expected to move fully inland over Cuba for very long, if at all, so any weakening is unlikely to be drastic, unfortunately. The storm will also have some time to recover between Cuba and Florida, anyway.

      • Merv says:

        Thank you for your response. Stay safe sir!

      • mBoutte says:

        Watch it crawl adjacently to the coastline. I don’t know how many times that I’ve witnessed hurricanes bounce, slide or skip near what should be a landfall…If Irma has returned to 285-290, it will stay just offshore of mainland Cuba unfortunately.

        • Kaz says:

          The interaction with Cuba is showing a marked formation decline in the GOES-E IR loop. Kinda surprised the 2am advisory didn’t report a decrease in intensity. HH barely found cat4 winds at 10k flight level on their last pass at 1am edt. The 5am update will likely reflect a modest decline in intensity? Makes sense though. Gotta get people out of harms way! Reporting a much weaker system would likely result in last minute complacency. The deep warm water in the straight of florida basin will likely promote a huge last gasp of strength. Any weakening will likely be temporary — as long as Irma stays off of mainland Cuba. In this case, deception saves lives. I agree with the reluctance to downplay the observed decrease in intensity. These forecasters always get caught in the middle.

          • Steve Adey says:

            I guess the duty forecaster at NHC wants to see clear evidence that it is weakening. The sampling by the hurricane hunter is only doing a sampling if winds but hurricanes are categorized on S-F scale. The most reliable measurement that they can do is eye pressure but not directly correlated to wind speed for such a monster storm.

  • Howard says:

    Thank you for your information. My 80 year old mother is going to literally be holing out in her closet in Naples. She is far from the shore, but it looks like Naples is going to take the brunt of the storm. God help us.

  • Tom says:

    Not sure if anyone has seen this but it looks like Irma’s eye is passing over the barrier islands North of Cuba with a good chance it will pass over Cuba proper. Link to Cuban radar below.

    http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=..%2FRadar%2F04Camaguey%2FcmwMAXw01a.gif

  • Greg M says:

    Gave away 10 sheets of plywood that was in my garage because I got caught in the middle of re-siding my house here in WPB.

    The guy was out of town and his supervisor wouldn’t allow him to fly back to board up his house, so he quit a six figure job on the spot.Came across the street almost a emotional wreck. I told him to just take the plywood and get started.

    I despise corp’s who are so insensitive to the people who make them rich.

    Levi you are priceless. May God’s hand cover you in what ever you do, or believe.

  • Bob says:

    I have this storm making a hard easterly turn toward the Carolinas still. These models are way off.

  • Chuck says:

    Is the Nam 3kmodel worth a darn?

  • John says:

    Much better description than the msm drama queens. Slow down your speech. Don’t turn it into word salad. Give us the facts and the forecast, without the anxiety. We aren’t snowflakes.

  • Yozetsu says:

    You do a better job than any of the “professional” news coverage.

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