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September 2017

[Friday Evening] – Hurricane Maria Could Pass Uncomfortably Close to the Eastern United States

   Posted by Levi at 7:20pm on September 22, 2017

Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Maria




  • Mel Frost - KD7DCR says:

    Super coverage, as usual…Thanks, Levi.

    None of these nasty storms this year present a simple path/direction picture.. They all seem to have complications in their forecasting. The understanding we enjoy here with Levi is very enlightening.

    • Rick B. says:

      I heartily agree with you, Mel.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Mel, every storm has complications, not just the ones this year. You probably already know this but, if not, check out Epsilon and Zeta from the tail end of the 2005 season. Those two consistently defied forecasts, and Zeta was the only storm to end up dissipating the next year. I can’t remember who it was, but it was one of the really experienced forecasters at the NHC, and every time he did an update on Zeta, you could feel the frustration rising about when that season would end. On the 11:00 12/31 update, he wrote something along the lines of he never thought he’d spend New Years Eve at the NHC…working. If I’m not mistaken, he retired the day after Zeta finally died.

      Regards, Jim

    • SAR Jim says:

      BTW, Mel, I saw your reply about the airport updates on the last video comments. I know all that airport data can get expensive. Too bad they can’t suspend the fees when we have disasters like this season.

      I like your “used car” pricing evacuation plan. Back when I was sailing the Caribbean full time (which just happened to be 2004/2005), I had purchased a medical and disaster evacuation program for just the kind of scenario we’ve seen this year. If things looked bad for the Virgins, the last thing I wanted was to be evacuated to PR. I wanted to get back to the continental US, where I had some room to run. It wasn’t a cheap plan, somewhere around $200 a month, and evacuation still wasn’t free, just cheaper. I would have gladly paid a couple thousand not to be in St. Thomas or San Juan right now.

      I’m also an amateur radio operator, extra class, with a decent station. I’ll be your ground contact if you start your plan. 🙂

      Regards, Jim

      • Mel Frost - KD7DCR says:

        Roger all, Jim:

        Here is KD7DCR, good on qrz.

        I don’t see a PM / Message button here.

        Your call ?? or, use my qrz addy shown to members…we can take this “off board” as it’s more than just “weather”, eh?


        • SAR Jim says:

          Mel, I don’t usually put up my call on a non-ham related board. I’ll check QRZ and send you a message. It would be a good time to check my entry as well since I changed from Yahoo to Gmail.

          Regards, Jim

  • Rick B. says:

    Thank you, Levi. Glad to see it should avoid the Bahamas and spare them additional impacts after Irma. Hoping for a miss for North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. I know it will be close, though.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Again, your wisdom and forecasting genius is much appreciated. I hope Maria does move out to sea without affecting the Carolinas. Living in Florida I always breathe a sigh of relief when these storms become “fish storms”.
    Thank you so much, Levi. Hope you can relax a bit this weekend!

  • Dave H says:

    Thanks for the update, Levi. I’m leaving Hampton, VA for two weeks tomorrow and just hoping this storm doesn’t make its way into the Bay. It’s gonna be a stressful start to the vacation.

  • Tony says:

    Hi Levi. So the chances are very high it will curve and not be a direct impact (landfall or storm surge) to NY/ LI? Thanks for your expertise and explaining everything to us.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Tony, the chances are very high Maria won’t plow headlong into New England. Depending on the track, the Carolinas up to NJ/NY/LI are not out of the woods yet. The chances are very high Maria won’t make landfall there, but that’s different than there being no direct impacts. All you can do is keep an eye on it.

      Regards, Jim

  • Robert says:

    Just talked to a buddy of mine who lives in Nags Head, and he said the waves were great! The Sun was out….and the East Coast surfing championships were on as scheduled! 8 foot sets were not uncommon!

    • SAR Jim says:

      Robert, hardcore surfers tend to look at hurricanes a little differently than “normal” people. I have a friend in California who flies to Hawaii every time they are threatened by a big storm so he could ride the waves at some famous place out there. I don’t think he ever thought about the implications of actually being caught in a hurricane.

      Regards, Jim

  • Jen says:

    So fascinating! I really like the thoroughness and thoughtful way you make these videos. Thank you!

  • SAR Jim says:

    LOL, Levi, I’m glad to see I’m not the only that switches Maria to Irma and vice versa.

    Maria slowing down like it has does throw a monkey wrench into the machinery. Ex-Jose still present s a pretty good weakness for Maria to aim for. However, if ex-Jose continues to weaken, we have to depend on the ridge moving east to drag Maria OTS. I hope that all works out but, as you have said repeatedly, beyond five days gets into never-never land when it comes to hurricane forecasting.

    Regards, Jim

  • Anonymous says:

    Thanks again Levi….When I first found your awesome commentaries, we had decided to leave the east coast of FL and head to Tallahassee, due to IRMA, which was headed up the middle of the state at the time. Upon return, I read about you, and saw you are “IN” Tallahassee. If I would have known that at the time, we would have treated you to a nice lunch or dinner while we were there. Where ever you had wanted to go, lol! Not planning on another trip anytime soon, God forbid…..but if we do, you got a free meal coming!!! Thank you so much for explaining things so well. Awesome website, and commentary!! <3

  • Rebecca Jacobs says:

    Did not mean to anonymous….had been on my ipad prior to….but now we have power on home computer 😉

  • Liisa says:

    Love your video updates. I was just looking at the latest Wind Speed
    Probabilities on the National Hurricane Center for Maria and it looks like Lee and Maria are going to mix it up together. Could you talk a little bit about this in your next update?


  • Anonymous says:

    I farted

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