Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Nate
Like your videos, very informative. I’m in the Mobile area, what are the odds that this storm spares us and goes just east with the worst impacts?
The chances of this going further east of Mobile are pretty slim at this point. Most of the model are moving more westward, and it’s not likely to make a jump from what’s now somewhere around Biloxi over to anything much further east. Really, a lottle further east or west doesn’t lake much difference if you’re at the coast, Storm surge, as Levi said, will be the big story with this storm. A little east or west might mean somewhat lower or high wind speeds, but Mobile is going to feel this one, especially if this is more like 100 mph at landfall.
Actually It does make a big difference whether you are on the east vs west side, 10 miles made a difference to me during hurricane Opal. It put 3 feet of water in my house (7’ elev across the street from Santa Rosa Sound. ) with this fast moving storm the water will rise/fall or fall/ rise quickly. I have lived thru Ivan also and witnessed countless other storms first hand. The dynamics and power of storm surge is nothing to take likely.
In addition, in the right eastern quadrant of the storm
the rapid (21 mph+) forward motion is added to the wind speeds of the storm itself.
This is mostly a factor in higher latitudes when storms sweep up and out,
but the rapid froward motion of this storm seems unusual for the lower latitudes
and may increase the impact.
Hi Levi, If the storm makes landfall with 80 mph winds, don’t you have to consider forward motion also? I would think 80mph plus whatever forward speed the storm has.
There is some additive effect from forward speed of travel, and there may be more than usual if Nate is moving at something like 30 mph, as some models are showing. However, we’re probably talking about no more than 5 mph at the surface. Ground friction is not going to allow much more than that.
The reported maximum winds in a storm are the actual winds, already including whatever effect forward motion has.
The north than northeastward curve would of course threaten more of North Florida if it happened sooner, or the storm slows, etc. What climatological forces are in play right now that could affect an earlier, or more pronounced, curve? (TY for great content and presentation.)
Jay, do you mean a more pronounced curve to the east, enough to make landfall somewhere in an area like the Big Bend? That large trough that Levi showed on satellite, backed up high pressure to the north, is pushing the dry air out of the way, and it’s also pushing Nate west rather than east. The trough is weakening somewhat, but it’s not going to collapse in the next 30 hours. Something like a large high expanding westward would have to be in play for north Florida to be the landfall location. That’s nowhere to been seen on the surface charts.
Exactly. And thank you for detailed concise answer. And yes, I live in Big Bend area South of Perry.
You know you’re a weather rock star when I watch YOUR updates before I watch last night’s episode of Grey’s Anatomy! Seriously, I LOVE your updates. I have learned so much from you this season. THANK YOU!
When you talk about storm surge, do you mean above sea level or above ground? For example, I’m not right on the beach – a mile from the water to the south, closer to the river to the side – but the elevation is 10ish feet. Should I expect 8 feet of water above local ground level (well into the house) or is that 8 feet above normal high-tide sea level?
Storm surge is however many feet above ground level, though those peak levels are mainly for the coastal residents. Keep in mind waves can be much higher in the storm than the storm surge levels, and rain can compound this threat. I recommend that you look at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/212738.shtml?inundation#contents and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/212738.shtml?rainqpf#contents for information from the NHC about those risks from this storm.
I don’t know where you’re at, but storm surge is the height above local ground level. Since this will be making landfall overnight, you also need to consider the effects of astronomical high tide. Your local EMA should have information about exactly what your area can expect. You should be guided what your local officials tell you. If there’s a chance water could be high enough to get in your house, the EMA should be issuing evacuation orders. Follow what they say to do and stay safe,
We are in the Alchula FL area on a camp out. What should we expect from this storm? Should we stay or should we go…
If you mean Alachua you are way clear of significantly bad weather. Check watches and warnings Saturday after noon of course, but if there is no jog Eastward, as all signs seem to support, should be fine… some gusty breezes and annoying intermittent rain squalls at worst.
Latest recon showing 986.4 air pressure as it makes its way into the Gulf…
And upgraded to Cat 1 status
This is a New Orleans threat.
The reason I’m thinking that is, the models shown on tv during the early morning hours, is showing a really hard right turn towards Mississippi from Louisiana. I don’t see such a sharp turn like that happening, but hugging the Louisiana coast to the border of Mississippi.
Joseph, there’s a strong cold front advancing east from the mid-south all the way up to a low in Michigan. This is what’s going to cause the right turn. Nate is moving much to fast to bump along the LA coast to MS. It may pass over Pilottown and make that the official landfall but that’s as much of the LA coast that will see Nate. New orleans will be on the much weaker side of the storm. Not to say the pumps that aren’t working along with the pumps that won’t keep up can’t cause flooding in New Orleans. It just won’t be from a direct hit by Nate.
Any thoughts on physical damage ti ca cause to Oil Rig Platforms in this area?
I don’t think there will be substantial damage at all, if any. Just shutdown for a few days until the workers return. Some may be in 14′ tidal surge plus wave height in the GOM.
Is this still holding true given recent update?
RA, yes. It looks like Nate is going to be a 100 mph storm at landfall, and almost all the wind is in the eastern semicircle, and area that has some rigs but nowhere near as many as what’s west of the projected landfall. A landfall around Galveston would be a much bigger deal.
Thanks very much.
Well it made landfall with 85 mph according to NHC with central pressure very conservatively estimated at 982 mbr – however other sources indicate sentral pressure is higher.
Is it fair to assume damage to oil rigs is relatively minimal?
Living on the gulf coast, we are wary of all storms until they make landfall. Many people went to bed with Opal a tropical storm and woke up to a cat 4 offshore and it came in more easterly than predicted. At a meeting on Thursday I mentioned that they should go to tropical tidbits for sound and non hyped information. Someone else said Levi! We discussed how much we appreciated the informative and educational aspects of this website. So big thanks!
We are supposed to drive from Houston TX on Sunday a.m. to arrive in Atlanta Monday. Any thoughts on that?
You’re probably better off taking US-59 up to Shreveport and then I-20 over rather than I-10. At the speed Nate is moving, it’ll likely be mostly past by the time you get to its path, but along the coast they’ll be dealing with the aftermath of storm surge as well as wind damage.
what is the thought about bay st. louis, ms?
will surge be a katrina repeat?
Nate flooded some casinos in Biloxi.
Can soon to be hurricane Ophelia strike Europe? Does Europe ever get hit by a hurricane, and not the remnants of the hurricane? With all this global warming talk I’ve seen articles that say Europe will get more Sandy like storms in the future. I have to laugh at these futurists sometime. If they know the future why don’t they Give me the winning lottery numbers, LOL.
Thanks Levi for all of your hard work. I know it’s not over. It’s never over.
Janet, I was just cruising back through and saw your question. Only one hurricane has ever struck Europe, and that was in Spain in 1842. The last tropical depression was Vince in 2005, also in Spain. Ophelia will have lost all its tropical characteristics by the time it gets to Ireland. There are many, many instances of extratropical lows as powerful as some cat 2 hurricanes striking Europe, primarily Ireland and the UK, but they’ve hit everywhere from Iceland to Sweden.
I’m not sure we really know the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. Until this season, the last landfalling major in the US was in 2005. I remember many predictions after the 2005 season that this was just the beginning, and we could expect many more powerful storms hitting the US in the near future. 12 years have passed before we got another landfalling major. We just don’t know all the long term effects of global warming, and how it affects things like hurricanes is a good example of what will need more study.
Azores belong to Europe !
I am not that familiar with this site having only comparatively recently discovered this blog ( during the spate of hurricanes which affected eastern Caribbean). Wanted to check if I have a technical issue because the regular blogs seem to have stopped abruptly on October 6th. Perhaps this is just not quite the same as Dr Masters/ Bob Henson’s blog which continues to run.
I appreciate that there are periods of no real news so need to post a blog but it seemed a bit odd that it stopped mid- Nate and has made no comment since about the various occasional flare ups as the season continues in western Caribbean.
Have I encountered a technical hitch or was Oct 6th really the last blog post. If so, referring others to the site appears a little pointless for now.
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