The 18z gfs run is having some issues it’s completely different
Thanks for the update Levi. I always appreciate your videos and this website.
Which model do you think has a better handle on the this potential storm. I noted that the GFS and FV3 is to the east near the Florida big bend area, while CMC, HWRF, and EURO is toward Mississippi/Louisiana/Alabama. Also HWRF, per usual is overdoing the strength (970mb). But is this on its way to being a Hurricane Allison (95)?
The GFS and FV3 have had some problems with this system, and I don’t think they are helpful guidance right now. Like I said in the video, it’s not clear yet how strong the storm could get. There is a possibility for it to become fully tropical and strengthen, but we probably won’t know if it will for a couple days yet.
Really appreciate your updates Levi. We’ve used Hurricane Tracker app since it’s inception & discovered Tropical Tidbits 2017 hurricane season. Do not know how we didn’t find it sooner! Invaluable for the latest info as we watched & prepped for Irma & Maria. Space Coast area of Florida has been inundated with rains this past 10 days. 2 good drying out days thankfully, but the ground is really saturated.
2018 looks to be interesting..
Long time lurker, first time posting.
Your tropical update videos are fantastic! I can’t stand my local weatherman’s apocalyptic hype.
Thanks for the update, Levi. Patreon money inbound lol.
Great to hear your voice. Thank you for the update. You are my go to source for all news tropical!
Thanks Levi! Euro seems to have been much more consistent over the past couple days whereas GFS has gone from a weak Cat 1 to a weak, sheared system approaching western FL peninsula in just 24 hours. I heard a RAOB from Mexico was fed into the models last night and hopefully the HH will have more data for the models if they fly tomorrow afternoon.
Thank you much for the very informative video ! …. You give the best info …. Keep up the great work !
The areas with substandard, or neglected pumping stations will have flooding issues. For example, New Orleans can’t handle an intense thunderstorm. Southeast Louisiana has flood problems since the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet was closed, it changed the flood dynamics where areas that did not flood, now floods, Lake Ponchatrain can’t drain, and the Trefuncta River floods. The situation is dire, not like it was during Katrina which was flooding when the levee broke.
Thank you for your updates. They are always informational and WITHOUT HYPE. Every time I try to predict what the weather will do I ALWAYS get it wrong. My friends online call me the kiss of death
Thank you Levi for the video and the invaluable information. I’ve been tracking this disturbance over three weeks ago when it was first advertised on the GFS to brief our leadership and forecasters. Interestingly enough, the GFS has been hinting at a tropical system developing near the Yucatan peninsula with land fall in the FL Panhandle. Of course, it was so far out that we just use it mostly to track and entertainment purposes. The track has been back and forth between the FL panhandle and Eastward towards the peninsula with huge swings between the 0Z and 6Z. The EURO has been more consistent compared to the GFS between runs. It will be interesting to see if the original GFS long range forecast ended up verified with landfall in the FL Panhandle when it’s all said and done. I’ve noticed that the GFS is more accurate for longer forecast but changes drastically or Flip flop on short term forecast. I am looking forward to your future informative videos. Thank you!
Please reference Tropical Storm Alberto 1994 where similar tropical moisture impacted the western Florida panhandle and Georgia with similar excessive precipitation and flash flooding exceeding 3 inches per hour and greater than 12 inches/24 hours caused catastrophic inland flooding.
Synotic setup is strikingly identical to the previous landfall with the historical 993 millibar landfall near Destin, Florida on July 3, 1994.
Looking forward to following your forecasts for Storm Season 2018. I enjoyed your style, and especially your online videos, when I discovered you at the end of the 2017 Season. Still sitting here in SW FL, with a damaged home courtesy of IRMA, but… here we go again. I processed a Patreon Contribution for you… I think an investment in your site is probably one of the smartest things I can do for Storm Season 2018.
Cape Coral, FL is listening :)
As usual the GFS has struggled with this system which the GFS-FV3 is also shows signs of struggling overall with the system. Euro along with navgem, cmc been more consistent which is why personally I’m Leaning more towards blend of euro, cmc, navgem guidance. The mesoscale models and hurricane models are also leaning toward the western track. But time will tell as we watch how the system evolves. It’s highly complex forecast with multiple variables to take into consideration. Interesting trend is to see how euro along with several mesoscale and hurricane models have trends upward with systems potential overall organization and strength. Could we end up seeing a strong tropical storm or even a rare may hurricane?? Obviously to many factors in play to know for sure how it will play out. But as usual Levi I enjoy watching your videos. Even though I personally prefer more in depth technical analysis they are informative for the general public and enjoyable to watch. I am interested to see how the interaction between the upper trough and its evolution affects the developmental evolution of likely Alberto. This could be a system that we study for several years depending on its evolution over next couple days. Late friday into early Sunday will be most likely key timeframe to monitor systems presentation. Sad part is IF it does indeed strengthen to least minimum hurricane. Due to timing and short forecasting window many individuals will ignore pertinent statements and warnings. But that’s to be generally expected from the general public. No matter how much you would think past systems have taught lesions. History is doomed to continually repeat itself. Least as retired public safety official turned amateur forecaster part time first responder it gives me further data sets to study. Tine will tell how this one plays out but looks like kickoff to possibly busy 2018 tropical season. As overall shear been below climo over gom, water temps favorable, loop current also in fairly favorable position plus other factors. Keep up the good work
The audio sounds like you have an errand bit of code that calls up ads? Or maybe the server has a glitch in it… not a web guru, just guessing.
Otherwise, thanks for the excellent explanation, as usual.
Thank you Levi from Sarasota, with 37 ft. sailboat at mooring, weather is very important for my self and my ship. I appreciate all your hard work.
Make another video please
Hi , I can’t use the tropics tidbits at all , it is not respond.
Invest 90L became Subtropical Storm Alberto
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