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Wednesday Evening: Florence to Begin Impacting Carolinas Tomorrow; Watching a Few Other Storms

   Posted by Levi at 6:54pm on September 12, 2018

Latest Information on All Storms from the National Hurricane Center


33 comments

   

Comments

  • Jessica says:

    Do you think when she stalls that she could gain strength?

    • Levi says:

      Even if the storm stalls over water, it would actually still weaken, since it would cool the water beneath itself, as well as pull dry air off the nearby land. However, it could still remain at hurricane strength for some time in that case.

  • Emmett H Morgan says:

    Great update, Levi. I trust you much more than the talking heads on TV that try to sensationalize all this…. I heard the earnestness in your voice and understand this is a serious storm. What is your opinion on Charleston? Looks like 5 inches of rain and 70-80 mph wind. Been through that plenty of times and not that bad. Thoughts?

    Emmett

    • Andrew Messersmith says:

      I’m in the same boat here, in North Charleston. Irma and matthew in the last couple years brought 60-70 mph gusts, so if it’s the same then it’s not a big deal. Can anyone confirm?

      • Jim C says:

        Andrew and Emmett, what happens in Charleston depends on how far west into SC Flo goes. If the storm comes ashore south of Wilmington and then goes straight wes into SC, the effects in Charleston probably wouldn’t be more than Irma. If instead Flo bumps south along the coast and then turns in, or the storm turns further south once it does make landfall, Charleston could see more effects. As Levi said, the longer it spends hugging the coast, the more cold water upwelling will happen, and that will at least decrease the wind effects. When it comes to rain you’ll just have to watch the rain bands and see how solid they are. Unless Flo really drifts south, you should be on the south side of the storm, and that’s going to be the weaker and somewhat drier side. A lot depends on how weak the steering currents really are and if the Ohio Valley ridge holds up. None of these details will be know for not more 24 hours ahead before to gets in your neck of the woods, and it may be more like 12 hours. Just Watch the NHC, the local NWS office, and keep abreast of any changes, and you can bet there will be some over the next three days. I’m in SE AL so I don’t expect to get anything from Flo although some showers would be nice. Good luck.

        Regards, Jim

  • R. Lopez says:

    Levi, you’re the man!

  • ossqss says:

    Hi Levi, the TCHP is not very good for a TC in that area. An impacting force for perhaps weakening Florence with the other impediments in play?

    • Jim C says:

      ossqss, as Levi said, it appears that some dry air is being ingested into the south side as well as southwesterly shear. Given its current position, those should be issues right to the coast. It doesn’t appear the Flo has much of a chance to intensify, and steady weakening is more likely.

      Regards, Jim

  • Anonymous says:

    Great info Levi. Thank you for the time you put into these videos.

  • my1973vw says:

    A way-out-in-the-future-question here: Looking at various spaghetti models, I’m seeing remnants of Florence headed into western/central Pennsylvania. Like 5-7 days out at least, probably. Can anyone with some knowledge/history theorize how much rainfall could be left in her by then and/or provide tools/knowledge to make a somewhat informed guess?

    • J. says:

      I would imagine 2-3 inches, maybe? But I don’t really have an ‘informed guess’, exactly. But, when remnants of a hurricane have to travel over a few states, not much is left except some rain.

      • Jim C says:

        The GFS gives a pretty good indication of where the remnants of Flo should go. You can look at that model here. Once it starts moving north, a path through TN, KY, OH, and PA before being pulled further into the NE and out to sea. Exact amounts of rain that far north and that far out are just about impossible to predict. Som remnant tropical systems can produce substantial rains in places like PA. If you’re in a flood prone are, I’d take action now. Otherwise, it will be anything from a warm late summer buch of showers to a day of heavy rain.

        Regards, Jim

    • Daniel says:

      Check the map Levi posted above from the NWS and on the NWS website check under forecast maps and you will find the rainfall maps for one to seven days! They update twice a day!

      Stay safe all!

  • Reese Tucker says:

    I was recommended to check this site out for information on this hurricane, I have been watching since Saturday. I live in Wilmington so I am dead center for this storm and your updates have been very useful for me keeping up with its track. I am going to ride it out in town, but you have given me a much better understanding of what’s to come. I will continue checking this website till I lose power, haha.

    • Jim C says:

      Good luck over there in Wilmington, Reese. As you probably know, the 5:00 update has Flo ether going ashore just south of you or starting to bump along the coast. The 8:00 update has Flo down to 110 mph so the steady weakening is continuing. With any luck, Flo will be down to a Cat 1 by sometime before tomorrow is over so maybe the wind effects won’t be too bad. Maybe you’ll even keep your power. :-)
      Regards, Jim

  • Jackie says:

    Well, here you have it folks. The best info out there on what’s going on in the tropics.Florence a “historic hurricane.” Mother of God, is there any denying these once in 100 year weather events form every few years or so?

  • J. says:

    Great informational videos, Levi! You’re way better than any news channel meteorologist.

    Make sure your storm drains are clear of sticks and debris, make sure that water can go where it needs to go. Stay safe, everyone!
    J.
    Durham NC

  • Andrew Messersmith says:

    Will the effects on the southern side of Florence (inland 15 miles from Charleston) include sustained winds over 50 mph even if the rain isn’t there to help bring down the winds?

    • Jim C says:

      Andrew, maybe. Depends on the pat Flo takes along the coast and then through SC. There will be plenty of rain, and the amount of rain doesn’t really correlate to the amount of wind. Just keep updated on path revisions and what the Charleston office is saying.

      Regards, Jim

  • Joey B says:

    I am on here for hurricane related weather. For those with DirecTV, they removed WeatherNation from their lineup. It is not the same, they were who I watched continuously during Harvey, Maria, & Irma.

  • HugeDong says:

    Awesome detail!

  • BJ Murphy says:

    Levi, we are a digital news service located in Kinston, NC. We’ll you be updating this tomorrow and at what times? We’d love to share your video in be of our updates.

    Please check out http://www.neusenews.com and our social pages at @neusenews.

    Thanks,
    BJ Murphy, Publisher

  • Claire says:

    Mahalo for all the great info Levi! Storm has passed us now on Maui and power was just restored. Appreciate the way you explain everything.

  • Kimberly Weidner says:

    Thanks Levi! You give the best information in terms everyone can understand. I’m always looking forward to the next Tropical Tidbits. Keep up the great work!!

  • Blair says:

    Great work Levi!

    Absolutely the best info on the internet. Being from SE Louisiana I hope the folks to be impacted listen to local officials.

  • DirtyHarry says:

    nw side of storm

    34.75° N, 75.64° W✕

    310° @ 15.9 sec

    9.01 m

  • Bryan J Folk says:

    I’m a retired U.S. Air Force meteorologist and I really appreciate the work you all do to help keep everyone informed!! Levi, your evening updates are priceless and Jim’s follow-ups to comments are also in same league… You guys rock! I ask everyone to take what these guys are saying very seriously and use the “Official” links they have provided for you to to keep informed for your local area.
    For those of you that have decided to stay put in mandatory evacuation areas that are in the path of destruction, please reconsider so as not to put other lives at risk if things don’t go as you planned and you need help.
    Many thousands or maybe millions of prayers are being lifted up for everyone’s safety… Keep the Faith!!

  • Joey B says:

    What is the predicted rainfall for the area of Candler / Biltmore Lake, NC?

  • BeeGeeBee says:

    Have travel plans for St. Simon’s Island, GA on Saturday. Looks like SSI is in for some rain and wind, but not much else. What’s your take?

  • Joe Alexander says:

    Hello Levi. I wonder if you might comment on why Florence may have deteriorated some unexpectedly. I am reminded that Irene did the same a few years back, or at least never held together the way it was expected to as it approached the US Coast (although it was a frightful rainmaker!) Is there something that models are missing? Sandy had differing processes I know, but Sandy did not lose strength in the same way in terms of pressure; it did, however, take a wider turn in its approach. Is there some factor along the Carolinas coast that might be a hindrance to organization? Thanks.

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