[Sunday Evening] Michael Forms; Expected to be a Strengthening Hurricane and Hit the Florida Panhandle Wednesday
Latest official information on Michael
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Comments
As always Levi, thank you. You are my go to for all things hurricane related.
Levi,
Thanks again for a well thought out and detailed presentation.
As a point of reference (Hurricane Dennis 2005) (I was working at WFO Tallahassee at that time), generated a huge storm surge well east of the center of Dennis. WFO Mobile has a real good write up on it. At that time, we didn’t understand the idea of a baroclinic shelf wave affecting water levels and helping to enhance storm surge.
I’m not certain if the concept was validated. I seem to recall hearing there was some debate on the idea. But it makes sense to me, that if a Tropical system with a long southerly fetch moves at just the right speed to create a southerly wind surface wind stress along the west coast of Florida, that could amplify the height of a storm surge into Apalachee Bay.
I was present when we discussed what to forecast for Storm Surge for Apalachee Bay as Dennis approached. I can tell you, that with the tools we had, we just didn’t know that it was going to do that.
So, here we are again. Agreed the projected track for Michael is slightly different than Dennis. But I am concerned we could have another Dennis episode.
Maybe you know of some good Storm Surge model that has since been developed that addresses this. If not, at least, it may be a good idea to highlight the potential for significant storm surge in Apalachee bay, far removed from the landfall of the center of Michael, just based on the geometry of the track.
Thanks for listening.
https://www.weather.gov/mob/dennis
I believe COAPs researched
With a hurricane, it’s the water not the winds the majority of the people in it’s path have to deal with. Flood dynamics have changed in many areas, some areas in the Gulf of Mexico near land have silted over causing the water levels to rise higher after Katrina. A lot has changed in 13+ years following Katrina. 13+ years is a lifetime ago.
Joel, The SLOSH model is still the best I know of for storm surge. You can find information about it at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php
Regards, Jim
Thank you, Levi.
The GFS guidance is currently showing the center moving across Central Virginia from the appalacians. Is this going to result in the same or worse stronger theta-e characteristics that resulted from the remnants of Florence. Also what is the likelyhood of this being a catastrophic flood event for Virginia? North Carolina is already having issues with river levels due to so much ground saturation. I am also curious as to the effects on coastal rosion. Florence ruined some very good surf fishing spots along the outer Banks and many coastal areas are now more fragile than ever.
AS Gloria Stuart, “Old Rose”, declared in “Titanic”, “Thank you for that fine forensic analysis.” I’m afraid the experience of Michael will be slightly more intense. Thanks again.
Levi-
As. a resident of the far southwest Florida coast (Naples_) we are always on the lookout for storms approaching from the southwest.
That’s not so much the case here, I realize; but I do see that the rain bands are fairly far west of the circulation- and they appear intense. I wonder if you could say something about rain on the Florida peninsula during your next update?
And thanks.
East! I meant east! The rain bands are east of the center. Sheesh.
Well, good news. It’s not going to NOLA. Bad news is that someplace on the panhandle is going to get it.
You Floridians are tough, though. It’ll be okay.
Thanks for you informative analysis without all the hysterics of MSM reports.
Hi Levi: Thanks for the information. Anything about Sergio? Those of us in the SW US are watching so we can get more rain!!!
Regards,
Peter
Curious: In 2004-05 ish there were several Hurricanes, like bowling balls from Africa.My Mom lived in Cape Coral, me above Tampa. The cone was to hit us above Tampa. We watched it take a sharp right and hit south Florida missing us up north completely.
What are the chances of this Michael doing that, taking a right and hitting Florida lower than predicted?
where you at Levi?