Disturbance Expected to Become Tropical Storm in the Gulf of Mexico Mid-Week

   Posted by Levi at 6:56pm on July 8, 2019


20 comments

   

Comments

  • Ryan says:

    Thanks Levi, you always bring clarity to offset the local mets “hair on fire approach”. Slightly Southwest of Houston here, went through Harvey with no flooding, hope this system brings NO WHERE near that type of rainfall.

  • George Foster says:

    I only wish u did more videos Levi. I always learn so much from you. go noles!

  • Anthony says:

    Fantastic breakdown as always, love to hear the technical side of things, and you do a great job explaining what the models are showing and how different scenarios play out. This will definitely be one to watch.

  • Edward Wojcik says:

    Given that the GFS was reportedly upgraded a month ago (FV3-based GFS), are you surprised at this point about the degree of disagreement between the new GFS and the reigning champ Euro model for this forecast scenario?

  • HugeDong says:

    Fantastic tropical update. πŸ‘πŸΎπŸ‘πŸΎπŸ‘πŸΎ

  • Wyatt says:

    Very nice. I have learned a lot from your videos. I hope that I can be a meteorologist on day at NOAA!

  • Anonymous says:

    Good job Levi

  • Shelley says:

    Thank you so much. Your videos always provide me with clarity: even if the track is uncertain, I very much appreciate your candid, logical explanation of why that it is.

  • Fred77 says:

    Tuesday mid-day. Just joined and watched your Monday blog. Watching dark sky on my iphone it appears the GFS model prediction os far is the winner. Time will tell…

    As a FL resident for 22+ years I was a winderground fanatic for all the years they existed – so sorry they sold out to that conglomerate – turned weather into an advertising mop. Keep up the good work

  • Anonymous says:

    I think it will become a tropical storm or even a hurricane because the Gulf is 30-31 degrees Centigrade. People should evacuate just in case

  • Anonymous says:

    I recommend Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com

  • LJS says:

    Good Job Levi! What does your Tuesday prediction look like?

  • Harry Kane says:

    Rainy hazy humid gulf states for a few days. Then we can go back to raily hazy humid days till October!!

  • jenny just says:

    Please do another video tonight…thank you… I learned a lot from yesterday’s video!

  • Kd4jrx says:

    Levi look’s like TAE NWS FCST Discussion says it all…

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
    428 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2019

    .NEAR AND SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]…

    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
    REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, INFLUENCED BY THE ELONGATED
    UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
    AND PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
    STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING HOURS BEFORE STORMS
    DISSIPATE. A BRIEF LULL IN STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
    CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

    THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
    GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE NORMAL LAND-BREEZE CIRCULATING BACK
    OUT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE FOR
    THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS,
    COUPLED WITH ANONYMOUSLY WARM GULF OF MEXICO TEMPERATURES WILL
    LIKELY YIELD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION OR STORM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
    DAY WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
    INDICATING ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER
    OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAND WILL
    ENHANCE THE SEA-BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING BANDS OF EFFICIENT
    RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
    STORMS WILL HAVE DECENT FORWARD MOTIONS, CUTTING DOWN ON RAINFALL
    TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.

    THE TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER
    AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA
    HIGH TO THE EAST AND RETREATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST
    WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
    LONG TERM.

  • Adam Neff says:

    down here in biloxi, Ms. Thanks for the update! looking for an update from you hopefully Wednesday.

  • miltonian1 says:

    What happens up there affects us down here in Bonaire often as a full wind reversal. Will be waiting for your next update.

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