Wow, I never thought Florida would have a chance for its first landfall of the season (Excluding TD 19) in NOVEMBER!
This thing needs to die in Central America. Anything that does move into the Western Caribbean needs to stay unorganized. Hasn’t Eta moving over the Caribbean and the other storminess of the gyre it is in cooled the waters there yet?
Eta has the possibilities of gaining cat 2 strength if it emerges back in the wesrern Caribbean. Sea surface temperatures are still high at this time as we saw zeta weeks ago. Form Florida panhandle to key west have to pay attention to this storm because eta has the rain to accumulate flooding and these gyre at this time off year tends to move slow if not stationary at time.
Other than the fact that “any storm almost anything is possible”, why would you say this? Most models and the NHC only predict it to be a TS at the most, from emerging into the Western Caribbean, onward. And Zeta was in the area more than a week ago, so it’s had a little time to cool there, plus all the churning at that time, and there has been a lot of general storminess in the area.
The water temp where Eta will emerge back over water is 85 degrees F. The water near Cuba and South FL is at least 80 degrees F. As we saw with Zeta, just because the water is cooler does not mean storms will not hit that area. I don’t hold much faith in the predictions of the strength near FL as that is so far out. Little changes can have big impacts. On Nov. 4th, the projected path has shifted west and I expect a lot more shifts coming. There is no such thing as ‘only a tropical storm’ as some would say and if it moves up the FL west coast, the area hit by Michael does not need anything tropical. I have seen tropical storms do more damage and produce more water than hurricanes.
That stationary pause can also leads to rapid intensification
My grandfather was a meteorologist for Pan Am in Europe and he taught me a lot way before they had all these fancy computer models. My favorite story of his is when somebody would tell him that you never have a hurricane in Florida during El Niño he would say did you tell the hurricane that. The worst storms are usually the ones that sneak up overnight. The most interesting thing is when the weather service forecast of the storm will be 120 miles an hour this is true but only up at that height not down where we are usually we just haveA third of that but the edge of the lick of the storm is where you feel the pinch
Just looked at satellite imagery for the entire Central America/Western Caribbean area. I don’t see how they (NHC and the models) can really think that is going to re-organize into anything meaningful. I guess we just wait and see. I read they said there is basically NO surface circulation. I wish we could get a vertical model if there is anything aloft. On the imagery, it looks like the 4 corners of activity are their own little mini-storm and rotating away from the center of all of it.
Well, I can definitely see the circulation on the infrared… I’m not sure if you’re looking at something else or…
I was looking at this one, mostly.
Just seems like a mess of convection with no organization.
Wow. It really does!
Nhc is trying hard and not doing as well as i thought because they forecasted a 1 and we got a 4, 60 mph away from real peak was their forecast!!!!!
Here you go.
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