Thanks Levi for the update very helpful as always.
Thank you so much for your forecast. As always very detailed and informative.
Thank you Levi for your forecast very informative as always as I live in Florida it was a big help thank you again
Thank you Levi for your very informative forecast of this storm as I live in Florida it was a great help thank you for your insight
I live in Sarasota and your daily updates whenever a tropical cyclone is is in the making have always helped me anticipate and prepare for what may be coming. I then turn to our excellent local weather channel, Bay News Weather 9 in Tampa which, of course, always incorporates the findings and alerts from the National Hurricane Center.
A heartfelt thank you for what you do, even more so now that I know you live near Miami and know first hand the impacts of these storms!
Please stay safe yourself!
So this morning, the Weather Underground model page shows none of the models coming to the west coast of the Fla peninsula.
So why is the official forecast track from the NHC having the center of the track hitting Dixie County Florida, in the Big Bend?
There are tons (probably literally) of spaghetti model runs out there. The cone contains I think 80% of the models, and excludes the stragglers. While these appear to be major models, I also think that each model has numerous different runs. For a better (and more cluttered) idea of the amount of models out there, click on my username to find a variety of websites with different models.
Want to know why the tropical storm-force wind field just shrunk by half in the next advisory? I emailed the NHC and told them that I wasn’t getting TS-force winds, so they changed the extent of the wind field. The highest 15-second wind gust we had was 24 mph, and that was hours before the NHC said we had tropical storm-force winds in our area (Tampa).
My guess is that they were estimating the wind field and surface readings didn’t show TS winds, so they shrunk it at the new advisory.
Because it is an evolving situation, forecasts often present a worst case scenario with data at a given moment, models are not perfect, sometimes weather changes outside of estimates … I have been in the path of an average storm and gotten whalloped, I have been in the path of a supposed super destructive storm for most of WFL … only to see it fizz out upon arrival.
Be happy this storm will not be destructive to NA.
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