[Tuesday Evening] Ex-Harvey Likely to Reform and Approach Texas by Friday; Flooding Threat Anticipated

[Sunday] – Harvey Degenerated to Open Wave, but Could Reform as it Approaches Central America

On Saturday, Tropical Storm Harvey lost its closed circulation due to a combination of fast forward motion and the weakening impact of vertical wind shear. Thus, the National Hurricane Center ceased advisories last night. However, the remnants of Harvey remain a well-defined wave axis, and concentrated deep convection has redeveloped over the system this morning. The strong wind shear that plagued Harvey over the last couple of days has begun to relax significantly, and low shear is expected while the system moves through the western Caribbean. Thus, Harvey could easily redevelop into a tropical storm during the next day or two. An air force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Regardless of redevelopment, (ex)-Harvey will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday, and to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. If Harvey becomes a tropical storm again, strengthening could occur prior to landfall, though how much would depend on how soon the storm reforms, if it does so. (ex)-Harvey would then likely move into the Bay of Campeche later in the week, and if the track takes the storm over water for more than a day, restrengthening could occur there as well. Thus, interests in eastern Mexico should also monitor ex-Harvey if the storm reforms. The National Hurricane Center currently gives ex-Harvey a 60% chance of ultimately redeveloping into a tropical storm.

[Friday] Harvey Impacting Lesser Antilles; Likely to Impact Central America Next Week