[Thursday Evening] Jerry Strengthening but Expected to Pass North of Caribbean

Note: apologies for fewer videos than usual – my schedule has been too busy in recent weeks. In the event of a major land threat in the Atlantic, I will do my best to post some. Remember that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for more frequent updates on active storms.

Hurricane Jerry has strengthened quickly today within a window of slightly lower shear. Small storms are prone to rapid changes in intensity, and Jerry could continue intensifying tonight. However, shear will increase substantially on Friday, and Jerry is likely to weaken Friday and Saturday. The storm is expected to track well north of the Caribbean islands, though a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Leewards. Jerry could be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, though per usual, uncertainty is large that far in advance.

Imelda and TD10 Form

The disturbance we were tracking across the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Imelda this morning just before moving inland over southeast Texas. The primary threat from this system is very heavy rainfall and the associated potential for flash flooding along the upper texas coastline and extending well inland (see the rainfall graphic below). Stay tuned to your local sources for information about flooding in your location.

Tropical Depression Ten also formed today in the central Atlantic. Expected to move WNW and strengthen, TD10 is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands. However, if the storm gets strong and fights off the dry air and shear it will be interacting with at the time, steering currents may take it farther south, closer to the islands, so keep an eye on the forecast.

Conditions through Thursday are fairly favorable for TD10 to strengthen. As mentioned, TD10 will have obstacles as it approaches the islands after that, and it’s still uncertain how TD10 will react given its small size, which makes large ups and downs in intensity possible.