94L likely to become Beryl and Hit North Florida or Georgia

   Posted by Levi at 5:48pm on May 25, 2012

Once again we are watching off the SE U.S. coastline for subtropical or tropical development, this time from invest 94L which came out of the Caribbean, didn’t develop there, but now has a good chance of becoming tropical storm Beryl sometime tomorrow. I haven’t been able to post here on this yet, but if you follow my facebook page, earlier this week we discussed briefly the setup that could lead to this, as improbable as it is to have two storms like this develop in May. Once again we have an upper trough over the SE U.S. that is moving out over the water and will eventually stack up vertically with the surface low, lowering the wind shear and allowing warm-core transition. The models are in good agreement on at least some development occurring, with the exception of the GFS which may have initialization issues. As a deep trough digs into the western U.S., the same trough that is dragging Hurricane Bud towards Mexico, the deep-layer ridge currently over the southern Mississippi Valley will propagate northeastward and block 94L from escaping out to sea. The SW to NE orientation of this ridge will force 94L to turn back towards the southwest and likely make landfall in northern Florida or Georgia, a rare place to get a tropical cyclone landfall, but this is a setup that can make it happen.

This storm is different than Alberto in that it is of more true tropical origin, and it is much larger. For this reason, the models are picking up on it better than they did with Alberto. There is a large moisture shield associated with the system which 94L will be able to tap into for the next couple of days, and low-level moisture over the southeast U.S. is at a higher level than it was when Alberto formed. Subsidence from the big ridge in the south has made the mid-levels quite dry, and dry air entrainment will likely be a limiting factor in 94L’s development, but I think not as limiting as it was with Alberto. 94L will be moving over 27C waters in the Gulf Stream before making it to the coast, which should allow it to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm of around 60mph, the same peak as Alberto, but in reality a stronger storm because of its size and larger pool of moisture. SSTs do drop off a bit in the shallow coastal waters, and this combined with dry air entrainment may cause 94L to weaken just before landfall. A wildcard to consider is that landfall will be occurring in that very curved portion of the SE U.S. coastline, and such curvature can enhance convergence into the core of a tropical cyclone and help spin it up as it nears the coast.

Overall, 94L has a high chance of becoming tropical storm Beryl likely sometime tomorrow, and will be making landfall on the U.S. coast, likely somewhere between Daytona Beach and Savanna, GA. The landfall location will be pinned down better once the system has developed and starts moving towards the coast. This will be a decent rain event for Florida all the way up through the Carolinas, as the system will be turning northeast eventually as the blocking ridge moves out of the way. We may even have to watch for some redevelopment if the center gets back out over the water off of the Carolinas before moving ENE out to sea. In general this system should bring mostly good things to the SE U.S. in the form of drought relief, but tropical storm conditions will affect those near the landfall location.

After 94L, the Atlantic should be quiet for at least the next couple of weeks, as the pressure pattern over North America is becoming unfavorable to support low-level convergence in the early-season tropical breeding grounds, and we should see a lull in activity until the 2nd half of June. I will talk more about that later.

We shall see what happens!


694 comments

   

Comments

  • Mont Blanc Sale says:

    Harry Potter is a minifigure Mont Blanc Fineliner of the boy wizard Mont Blanc Milano Harry Potter who appears in 38 of the 50 Harry Potter themed sets, two magnet sets, one store exclusive (the Target exclusive 4768 The Durmstrang Ship), and a “Minifigure Gallery,” making Harry more common than any other minifigure from the Harry Potter theme. Harry is the only minifigure from the line to appear in at least one set from every subtheme. First, in 4708 Hogwarts Express, Harry is seen wearing Mugg

  • Michael Kors Veske Nettbutikk says:

    Clearly you don’t want to take this credo to extremes, dressing up far beyond your financial means or professional status. However, simple accessories can go a long way toward showing that you take your job seriously. He has amended the constitution to allow for multiparty elections and has positioned his 44 year old son Gamal to run for president, if he and Mubarak’s military backers should so decide. However, the coming transition is uncertain. 4 Toyota Avensis Toyota Michael Kors Handbags has

  • ?????? says:

    我们为您解除一天的疲惫,北京美女上门,让您拥有一个甜蜜,轻松,北京上门保健,舒心的夜晚 陪客第一,质量第一,安全第一,信誉第一的生意理念,打造&#

  • ?? says:

    &nbsp,泡妞三十六计;2014年全国老板手机号码大全共400多万个老板手机号码,全全国老板手机号码数据内容有公司名称、老 板姓名、 经营范围、经济类&#22

  • ?? says:

     2014年全国老板手机号码大全共400多万个老板手机号码,全全国老板手机号码数据内容有公司名称、老 板姓名、 经营范围、经济类型、地址、 邮&#32

  • ?????? says:

    Coursera and edX both want to work with standard providers. S. For-profit charter school companies are responsible to their shareholders,コルボ フェイス ブライドルレザー シリーズ, not students. One reviewer felt “awkward” conducting site visits because of a lack of knowledge and experience, the report said. If five years hence that number were to dwindle, then you know th

  • Nike Air Max 90 Rea says:

    Pants For the spring and summer, the core items in a casual wardrobe are jeans and chinos. Look for dark blue, non distressed jeans in a slim/straight fit (Levi 511/514/501, depending on body type), and flat front slim fitting chinos in tan/khaki, olive green or navy (Dockers D1 or Alphas, Lands’ End Canvas, Gap). Depending on where you live and how you feel about them, shorts are useful too. It was close to 10 pm on a TUESDAY NIGHT and we walked in and saw the hostess talking to a waitress in t

  • Ralph Lauren Classic Fit Big Pony Sash Polo says:

    Hello there good friend,I came across your personal page out of the online site and it was considerably shocked about this. Honestly, I adore this at my earliest sight!The perception of the site is very useful that provide us a relatively more comfortable experiencing. All of the subject matter can also be amazing along with handy.This juncture I actually searched is quite wonderful that help me a ton.You then have a very successful small business. You might be pretty high quality. Kudos for your try to produce us a whole lot fantastic informaton. May very well which you happy moment.
    Ralph Lauren Classic Fit Big Pony Sash Polo http://www.bernardcabane.net/ralph-lauren-classic-fit-big-pony-sash-polo-p-370.html

  • Polo Ralph Lauren Skor says:

    If you need to pack your suit in checked or carry on luggage, careful folding will minimize the wrinkles upon arrival. You can fold the pants as you would any other pair of dress slacks. For the jacket, one technique is to turn it inside out and fold it into quarters. So, it helps everybody. We’re standing together to protect our rights. Also said that, while they’ll continue their weekend rallies, they’re also involved in an outreach program.Elmenyawi says that they have opened the doors to the

  • ?????? says:

    陪客第一,质量第一,北京小姐上门,安全第一,信誉第一的生意理念,打造完美北京夜生活! 联系电话:18301201013小周 我们为您解除一天的疲惫,让您拥有一个

  • http://www.projecto4.com/-c-1.html says:

    “What we are seeing now is a lot of conversations about what the medium to long-term landscape of enterprise IT looks like. ’’Tunick had argued his client had not intentionally violated any rules and had downloaded information on his personal laptop to work on outside the office. Paul Canetti,RJ ジュエリーサービス キヘイチェーン, the founder and CEO of MAZ, a company that helps magaz

  • ?????? says:

    联系电话:18301201013小周 我们为您解除一天的疲惫,北京洋妞上门,让您拥有一个甜蜜,轻松,舒心的夜晚 陪客第一,质量第一,安全第一,信誉第一的生意理念,&#2517

  • ???? says:

     2014年全国老板手机号码大全共400多万个老板手机号码,全全国老板手机号码数据内容有公司名称、老 板姓名、 经营范围、经济类型、地址、 邮&#32

  • ?????? says:

    ,北京洋妞上门北京五环内高素质女孩上宾馆,北京美女上门,酒店以及家里情人式全套陪客,类型丰富,国内和国外女孩都有,让您享受到高品&#

  • Oakley Flak Jacket Sunglasses says:

    Council housing was something that was needed during the interwar years and in the 50’s but not today. Las botas deben ser devueltas en su caja original. Consider this, a $20 pair of sunglasses from the gas station (or the Fossil sale rack) will provide you with UVA, UVB protection. The shoe also features Oakley Frogskins Sunglasses a Shadow TM cleat and offers all golfers excellent grip during a golf round. Initially, feeling great about finally being a senior, I was more than happy to share a

  • dress says:

    滇ICP备08101827号-1 ,hair申明: 沈园文学网为综合型文化文学类网站,dress,站内部份转摘其他收藏类网站如我们违反了贵站规则,hair,敬请告知 为保证作者权利&#82

  • Michael Kors Handbags Canada says:

    Tote bags are part of a growing trend of reusable product popularity. Reusable products are socially conscious and good for the environment. Tote bags have the potential of replacing hundreds of disposable plastic and paper bags used by just one person a year. Next, gather some newspapers or junk mail to use in your container for bedding material. Do not use colored or glossy paper, as this will add chemical components to your compost that are not desirable and that will take much longer to brea

  • Cheap Ray Ban Cats sunglasses says:

    This is certainly discussing utilization, Train case baggage, but in addition considering that legal tremendously lessened power, methodical a good examination has changed into a challenging element, although way to many which require every components, to your ct on their Oakley sunglasses online own is usually not a single thing positive thing, even though it will give a forex account for the Qin-chang, yet are unsure what you’ll do a qualification may Cheap Oakley Active sunglasses empow

  • gigabyte drivers says:

    Drivers List:acer, asus,averatec,benq,compaq,dell,emachines,,fujitsu,gateway,gigabyte,hp,intel,lenovo,msi,samsung,sony,toshiba   When it comes time to update, the process is very simple. Just open up Device Manager (by clicking on the Start orb and typing "device manager" into the search box) and right-clicking on the hardware you want to update. Click Properties and go to the Driver tab. Here, you can see your current driver version. If you’re updating through Windows, click &quo

  • ??seo says:

    网站新版今日上线试运行而具备此功能的其他软件,积累了大量数据,支付宝已跟170多家金融机构合作,baidu.更多引流!1、 整合智慧家居产品,将烘

  • Michael Kors Outlet says:

    There are lots of products available in the market offers services in removing stains, and other problems in our upholstery but sometimes it damages the upholstery with a its high content of chemicals. Be careful on what we are buying for cleaning and washing of our upholstery read carefully the label and its uses. The article is Michael Kors Fulton Hobo strictly for educational or entertainment purposes only and should not be used in any way, implemented or applied without consultation from a p

  • Oakley Half Jacket Sunglasses says:

    However, this relates to a single genomewide analysis and does not take into account all the subgroup Oakley Split Jacket Sunglasses Cheap analyses carried out in addition.. So, someone wearing a pair of Airwaves can quickly see their location on a map of the resort they’re at the system comes ready to display maps for more than 600 resorts worldwide, and automatically knows which one is being skied. However, heterodimerization of MOPr and DOPr has been reported in cell expression systems (Jorda

  • Ralph Lauren Kleding says:

    McCraney first got into theater when he was 15. He graduated with awards in 1999 from Miami’s School of the Arts High School and in 2003 from theater school at DePaul. He studied Shakespeare in England, did a world tour with Brook’s company and acted professionally in Chicago before going to Yale.. With there being 365 days in a year (not counting the leap years) you would use some 25500 plastic or paper bags of any size over a span of 70 years. A reasonably good fold able cloth or other fabric

  • www.fridgejp.com says:

    ただ、とにるニムの言うとおり、韓国文化に興味のある日本人でもこっちの話しをまじめに聞いてくれるのはやはり年配や年寄りですね,冷&#3

  • Private game server program says:

    http://www.n7ss.com/PWserver
    Private game server program http://www.n7ss.com/

  • hogan scarpe outlet says:

    respond biases can occur (40)specially when they relate with very much volatile showcase issues. additionally,hogan scarpe, facts purchased from various kinds of assets might not am in agreement. in these cases,hogan outlet, The science tecnistions would be wise to make sure the truth of all secondary records data by just carrying out preliminary medical professionals or even added appropriate ideas. if we do inspiration, This are often accom- plished via unique price tag and energy. internation

  • hogan sale says:

    response dispositions may appear (74)mayo Clinic in Rochester and in addition younger hospitals in the town of jacksonville, the florida area, as Phoenix/Scottsdale, california. jointly, all of the three clinics relieve more than half a million many every single and every year. Philanthropy is a big area of the mayo medical center. about Mayos’ contributions in about 1919, Philanthropy could have been really seated in their mayonnaise Clinic’s surgical procedures. present in 2009, 11

  • cheap trx says:

    sighs were hadThere’s also no god opThat feel when the entire HR and marketing departments are full of 7/10 MILFs and cougars.Anybody who isn’t stupid knows what they are talking about. In neuroscience courses as an undergrad, this was the way it was always presented (and yes, my professors used the word "mating"). The 4F’s is just a mnemonic to help people remember the main basic functions of the hypothalamus.The atmosphere is awesome and it felt very safe and professional. Get good s

  • ????? says:

    男女同じ構造です,冷蔵庫。履歴書も一種のビジネス文書です。彼らはそこのあたり、分かっているのかなと感じましたそのために国民は何&#2

  • Parajumpers Jackets says:

    It’s always a problem what to buy for my son for rainy autumn and for spring. Getting your advertising into someone’s home is one of the best moves you can make. Drastic and seemingly inexplicable weight loss is more noticeable in Type 1 diabetes. All three must be firing in alignment, similar to a well oil machine. If an x-ray is necessary,Parajumpers Outlet, precautions will be taken to minimize radiation exposure to the baby. Your stubbornness is tremendous and always ends up getting what you

  • ??? says:

    平沼赳夫のように、小泉憎しで反対音頭を歌うのはどうでも良い。特に向かって左、底面のかぎ状の部分に茶碗等を引っ掛けて使う部分が&#24

  • Oakley Sunglass says:

    连续7天的下跌之后,围观者开始变的急躁和不安~请耐得住寂寞,扛得住压力。 无论如何去剖析~行情都在持续的下跌。近2天黄金1300跟白银的3900(3920&#6

  • Discount apple laptops says:

    Shopping cart downloads aren’t safe online unless you have the right protection. Online purchasing carts are a necessity for online business owners wishing to sell products and services online. Numerous versions of online shopping carts exist that allow you the ability to instantly receive payments from your customers without having to wait for payment in the mail or other forms of payment receipt. As you know, PayPal is a very popular online payment method, but accounts get hacked, and product

    • Gimena says:

      Finally, there is the question to all metgrooloeists: Why was Irene not downgraded to a tropical storm the moment it made landfall? At that moment, NYC subways could have resumed operation.Because it would have embarrassed Mayor Bloomberg (IMO).(Bus lines needn’t have been completely shut down to begin with.) I don’t think we critics of the NHC are implicitly calling for less alarm on the part of the public. The public could have been warned repeatedly by the media that a large tropical storm will drop lots of rain, leading to flooding, and that its winds can drop lots of trees, particularly since there’s been no similarly large windstorms for years, meaning that weak, vulnerable trees near power lines haven’t been thinned. There could be an in-depth explanation of why evacuation is a good policy, even if ones home isn’t vulnerable to flooding or tree-fall: because electricity and phone service can be lost for many days, causing a crisis situation in isolated homes if emergency service (e.g., medical, fire) is needed by them. There is plenty of time available on the media for this sort of educational material. I suggest the government prepare a half-hour educational video for TV stations and make it available on the Internet as well. (It should contain hints that local power companies should thin trees near their power lines as routine maintenance.)But it’s very bad for just-the-facts reporters like the NHC to spin their reporting even slightly in order to produce these desired effects, due to the loss of credibility that can result, not just among the public (the crying-wolf effect) but among people who are suspicious of what the government has to say. It gives them a case-study with which to convince others that official predictions and facts aren’t trustworthy, but are mostly propaganda.I think the NHC put its thumb on the scale just before and after landfall in NC:Shortly before landfall, it predicted it would occur as a Category 2 storm, when it barely qualified as a Category 1.Just after landfall, it claimed that hurricane force winds (of 75 MPH, maximum) extended for hundreds of miles, when the number couldn’t have been more than half that.And it predicted at that time that Irene would still be a hurricane as it progressed far to the north i.e., to NJ, NY, and NE. It should have been impartial about reporting such matters, regardless of what it perceived their public impact to be (complacency) and regardless of how much it would have made their previous predictions look bad. In the long run, this would have been the better course. If it wanted to make the case for the public’s Taking Precautions, it should have done so in a separate section of its Advisories.

  • buy trx straps says:

    Off to the pool with the kids.Sounds perfect to me. The hotter the better.Did a great job on the main event.I’ve saw fights stopped for much less than what happened in round 2, but glad the ref didn’t stop it.100% always maintained Mario Yamasaki as the best referee in MMA.Its a facebook post brah. A facebook post vs fuking beheading someone.Until I start seeing public outcry from the widespread Islamic community saying that they do not agree with whats happened, I feel safe to assume all these

  • Cheap MK Bags says:

    But how do you create a cohesive sense of community in a city where two out of three people come from outside the province, Yan asks, citing figures from Statistics Canada, and where 40 percent of residents emigrated from another country entirely? Next to Toronto, Vancouver has more foreign born residents as a percentage of its total population than any other major North American city. And it’s not like these newcomers have any shared history on which to capitalize when they arrive from such dis

  • Ralph Lauren Skor says:

    The Hollister jacket sold for $60 with shipping included. That amount of watchers on the jacket was just incredible over 16, the most I ever had on one single item on eBay. So the name brands from these items I had sold again, were Abercrombie Fitch, American Eagle and Hollister on eBay. I’m never a fan of stand alone data points, because they have no context, so here it comes: That earnings beat figure is in line with the four Ralph Lauren UK Sale year average, while that sales beat figure is b

  • autographed Evgeni Malkin hockey jersey says:

    Brassard on the Move?Hearing at least 2 teams showing huge in interest in the current Blue Jacket,Mike Trout Authentic Cool Base Jersey..price is high though as the Jackets aren’t shopping him,authentic Jonathan Toews jersey… Looking for info between blogs or when the next blog is coming,autographed Evgeni Malkin hockey jersey?> CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER,2014 Clayton Kershaw cool base jersey.CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW ME ON GOOGLE+,Autographed Buster Posey jersey. 相关的&#

  • polo ralph lauren says:

    Ces traces ne pourront être effacées ni par la mémoire des hommes ni par le temps. Basan avished sur lui les beaties de la ich IFE: diamants, desses et les pois. Ca doit quand même piquer un peu au coin du coude (surtout si l’polo ralph lauren est chaude. As yo get bette, yo wi be asking why yo haven’t been nning befoe. Ca ne veut pas dire que les gays ne savent pas être fidèles, mais plutôt que bpolo ralph laurencoup choisissent une vie sentimentale et sexuell

  • polo ralph lauren says:

    L ee est impedabe et pot Le tax de tansfet est ptôt apide. Chez ce Fançais, Bachi Saeh este pend à ses dex tééphones potabes. Jona d’n polo ralph lauren en phamacieJe vais d’abod appee mon pacos qi est on ne pet ps cassiqe! I fat constate cependant qe a sonoité d pénom pête ajod’hi e fanc à ‘ionie, et q’i est agement passé de mode. et je ne savais pas qu fallait dans ce cas réentamer immédiatement la nouvelle plaquette. I a menacé

  • http://www.hillemedien.de says:

    and also helpful hints needed for mcilroyMAGIC: They pretty much proved to be decent shooters (league record makes from 3 point range), whereas Dwight Howard has yet to establish his low block moves (I don mean dunks) can carry a team . Well, against double and triple coverage, anyway. What happens if teams commit to staying home with Orlando off shore drillers and mostly (they got to mix it up a little to confuse Howard, keep him off balance) play him one on one? Guaranteed, he gets to the rim

  • la femme 18646 says:

    but to show that sustainable design can also be beautifulFor short, elegant dresses, try an empire cut with a little bit of short white dresses flare. The high empire peacock cocktail dress waist resembles a baby doll dress look with a sequin bust and the skirt with two tones. You can experiment with two tones of ivory, hot pink, yellow, plum, cherry /oneshoulder.php red, and gold for any occasion. Also, wear jackets and shirts that are fitted at your waist and flare out towards the hips.Go goth

  • cheap nike air max 90 says:

    based on feeling stimulatedFootball shots nike blazers seriously a individually intended program may introduce your tyke to a playful in, solid, and even monitored habitat. provide progressive basketball get togethers places we practice ordinary methods, pleasure video game, to healthy and well balanced competing nike air max 2014 cheap firms to your girl or boy. nike wholesale shoes connected with regime as well focuses on identity collecting driving lessons illustration realistic appreciate, v

  • http://www.rosin-srl.it says:

    nike shoes 03pm travelers championship keeps on truckin’ andy bessetteI believe I have answered your question. Your accept would be greatly appreciated. Of course, if I can provide clarification concerning your original question, please let me know. I am an honest person. I had no knowledge of what was going on. If I did, I would say I did.”. Pele, Diego Maradona, Franz Beckenbauer, Alfredo di Stefano, Sir Bobby Charlton, Michel Platini and Ferenc Puskas. The FIFA world cup was only growing and

  • Ralph Lauren Dam says:

    May well camisa ralph lauren hacer/ser l por el cerdo elctrico de diseos mejor rated que podan ordenar en serie un titular de cheque especial. Calvin Klein had even tried to put out a new denim line with improved fabrics ck39, but the label does not appear to go far enough and is easier to find on eBay or at their own website than anywhere else.. This pays off because on the saturdays and sundays, you will be more rested along with concentrated for school work. Maryland Parkway Las Vegas, NV 891

  • http://www.fdp-mandelbachtal.de says:

    nike shoes 50 strike for the 4As we reach Central Park and hit our first incline, Boost helps propel me forward and there’s no denying I feel more energised while running. I’m not a fast runner, and I’ve never done a marathon, but I manage a two hour run around the city. I don’t feel tired and could easily continue. The particles are cooled with liquid nitrogen and then ground into elastomeric powders. This is then conducted to the melt mix process with thermoplastics and additives. Here we use,

  • iPhone 6 For Sale says:

    3. Searching for each product on your shopping list individually instead of lumping them all together will, most likely, lead to better online deals and discounts. 2. Use popular search engines like Google, Bing or Yahoo! to locate coupon codes on the Web. They will make your online deals even sweeter. 4. Bookmark comparison websites. These sites will list sellers of a particular item, as well as the prices each individual merchant is charging. This can be quite advantageous, as long as the ship

  • iPad Air For Sale says:

    It has a long history, earlier weekly Fairs or Markets used to take place in one of the town and people from nearby places used to come there and buy their required products. It was commonly called the Hatt Bazaar. Later shops began to take its permanent establishment and they specialized in the form of bakery shop,Cheap iPhone 6,by 80 yards in 1980 and sets a world record 4, butcher shop etc. And finally Supermarkets emerged now taking shapes of Malls and Conventional Store, a single place wher

  • Air Jordan 6 Retro Carmine 2014 says:

    buy carmine 6s and therefore no need to employ childrenIf you are like most women, then you certainly have an array of summer footwear stashed in your closet from dress sandals Carmine 6s 2014 For Sale to peep toe shoes to kitten heels to sneakers to everyday flats jordan concord 11s to casual flip flops to stilettos for that elegant evening carmine 6s out. When they report how many people lost jobs, their models allow for a + or 430,000 jobs margin of error. So outside of the most colors, print

  • ??????? says:

     2014年全国老板手机号码大全共400多万个老板手机号码,日喀则企业名录,全全国老板手机号码数据内容有公司名称、老 板姓名、 经营范围、经济&#31

  • columbia 11s sale says:

    many great photo opportunities await you on this tourIt took me 6 months, and long after my first official race, to realize that a lot of my trouble was not my technique or ability. It was my shoes! Go to a real running store with trained employees to fit you appropriately after watching you run. This being said, I have a particular challenge, meaning that I have to keep as many of these musical styles and cultures and techniques fresh in my mind. The practice principles I use would possibly app

  • Leave a Reply to Ralph Lauren Dam Cancel reply

    Your email address will not be published.

    Basic HTML is allowed.






    Copyright © 2012-2020 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
    Contact info: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com