Hurricane Matthew continues to strengthen this morning, with the latest recon aircraft finding a pressure of 969mb and winds up to 115 mph. Matthew may undergo some fluctuations in intensity as it interacts with Columbia and dry air to its west over the next day or two, but Matthew could be a major hurricane as it nears Jamaica by early Monday. A track near Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba is expected Monday and Tuesday, and into the Bahamas by Wednesday, continuing northward to the east of the United States. There is some greater confidence in this general track forecast this morning than there was a couple days ago. However, direct impacts from Matthew in Florida or the rest of the southeast U.S. coastline cannot be ruled out at this time. Such impacts would still be several days away, and residents should stay informed on Matthew.
[Wednesday Evening] Matthew Forms – Short-Term Threat to Southern Caribbean Islands – Long-Term Future Uncertain
[Tuesday Evening] 97L Slow to Develop – Could Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to Windward Islands and Southern Caribbean
Tropical Storm Karl has begun to strengthen this morning, as the storm’s circulation has now become more aligned with its convection. It may not take long for Karl to approach hurricane strength now that intensification has begun. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda, and hurricane conditions could be possible if Karl continues strengthening and passes close enough to the island early Saturday morning. At the moment, Karl is expected to pass about 100 km southeast of Bermuda, but even small changes in its track could bring it closer. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to reach the island sometime tonight.
Tropical Depression Karl remains weak due to southerly wind shear this morning. Convection has become more organized on the north side of the circulation, but the low-level center remains partially exposed on the south side. Shear is expected to lighten somewhat over the next couple of days and some strengthening is likely to occur as Karl turns northward toward Bermuda. Karl is expected to pass just southeast of Bermuda late Friday and early Saturday while strengthening. This track forecast has high confidence, but even slight shifts in track could change the impacts to Bermuda, and details will be difficult to know until Friday. After passing by Bermuda, Karl will accelerate northeastward and become extratropical.
Tropical Storm Karl continues to struggle due to wind shear and dry air this morning. This is likely to continue hindering significant strengthening of Karl until Thursday or Friday, when wind shear should lessen. By this time, Karl will be making a turn northward and then northeastward just to the south of Bermuda, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane during that time. The track forecast is currently southeast of Bermuda, and although the track forecast has high confidence, Karl will not be in Bermuda’s vicinity for 4 days, and thus it is not yet clear the extent to which Karl may impact the island.