[Thursday Evening] Jerry Strengthening but Expected to Pass North of Caribbean
Note: apologies for fewer videos than usual – my schedule has been too busy in recent weeks. In the event of a major land threat in the Atlantic, I will do my best to post some. Remember that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for more frequent updates on active storms.
Hurricane Jerry has strengthened quickly today within a window of slightly lower shear. Small storms are prone to rapid changes in intensity, and Jerry could continue intensifying tonight. However, shear will increase substantially on Friday, and Jerry is likely to weaken Friday and Saturday. The storm is expected to track well north of the Caribbean islands, though a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Leewards. Jerry could be in the vicinity of Bermuda in about 5 days, though per usual, uncertainty is large that far in advance.
Imelda and TD10 Form
The disturbance we were tracking across the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Imelda this morning just before moving inland over southeast Texas. The primary threat from this system is very heavy rainfall and the associated potential for flash flooding along the upper texas coastline and extending well inland (see the rainfall graphic below). Stay tuned to your local sources for information about flooding in your location.
Tropical Depression Ten also formed today in the central Atlantic. Expected to move WNW and strengthen, TD10 is forecast to pass north of the Leeward Islands. However, if the storm gets strong and fights off the dry air and shear it will be interacting with at the time, steering currents may take it farther south, closer to the islands, so keep an eye on the forecast.
Conditions through Thursday are fairly favorable for TD10 to strengthen. As mentioned, TD10 will have obstacles as it approaches the islands after that, and it’s still uncertain how TD10 will react given its small size, which makes large ups and downs in intensity possible.
[Thursday Evening] New Storm Expected to Form Near Bahamas and Florida – Heavy Rain Expected
[Wednesday Evening] Dorian Reorganizing on Approach to South Carolina and North Carolina
[Tuesday Night] Dorian Moving Northward; Flooding and Damaging Winds Possible Along Coastline from Central Florida to North Carolina
[6am Tuesday] Dorian not Moving Yet, but Expected to Stay Offshore of Florida; Threat to Coastal Areas of Florida, Georgia, and Carolinas
Dorian, so sadly for the Bahamas, still isn’t moving this morning.
As a result, confidence is now very high that Dorian will stay ~70 miles offshore of Florida once northwest motion finally begins later today. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect north of West Palm Beach, and life-threatening impacts to the coast remain possible despite the storm being offshore.
Dorian is expected to get closer to South Carolina and North Carolina than it will to Florida, and a landfall there is possible Thursday or early Friday. The hurricane will become fatter on its northwest side as it comes up the east coast, so significant impacts such as flooding may occur even well inland. It remains to be seen how intact Dorian’s wind core will be on its way north, but the storm could potentially still have winds over 100 mph near the Carolinas. Storm surge remains the primary concern.
[Monday Evening] Dorian Stalled in Bahamas; Life-Threatening Impacts Expected All Along Southeast US Coast this Week
[8am Monday] Dorian Stalling over Grand Bahama
Dorian has nearly stalled over Grand Bahama this morning, and is barely drifting northwestward, a horrifying situation for the island. In a game of inches, the fact that this has occurred over the eastern half of the island instead of the western half might be good news for Florida, though this guarantees nothing.
The one major computer model that was still showing a direct Florida landfall (HWRF) has trended offshore overnight, which is also good news. Other models like ECMWF and GFS trended closer to the coast (40-50 miles offshore), which would still be a dangerous track.
The storm is also beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which while typically accompanied by a decrease in max winds, also results in a broadening of the wind field, making it more likely to impact Florida even if the eye is offshore.
Again, nothing is guaranteed. Tiny wobbles in the storm track could have vast consequences. Be vigilant, and be prepared just in case the worst happens.