94L likely to become Beryl and Hit North Florida or Georgia

   Posted by Levi at 5:48pm on May 25, 2012

Once again we are watching off the SE U.S. coastline for subtropical or tropical development, this time from invest 94L which came out of the Caribbean, didn’t develop there, but now has a good chance of becoming tropical storm Beryl sometime tomorrow. I haven’t been able to post here on this yet, but if you follow my facebook page, earlier this week we discussed briefly the setup that could lead to this, as improbable as it is to have two storms like this develop in May. Once again we have an upper trough over the SE U.S. that is moving out over the water and will eventually stack up vertically with the surface low, lowering the wind shear and allowing warm-core transition. The models are in good agreement on at least some development occurring, with the exception of the GFS which may have initialization issues. As a deep trough digs into the western U.S., the same trough that is dragging Hurricane Bud towards Mexico, the deep-layer ridge currently over the southern Mississippi Valley will propagate northeastward and block 94L from escaping out to sea. The SW to NE orientation of this ridge will force 94L to turn back towards the southwest and likely make landfall in northern Florida or Georgia, a rare place to get a tropical cyclone landfall, but this is a setup that can make it happen.

This storm is different than Alberto in that it is of more true tropical origin, and it is much larger. For this reason, the models are picking up on it better than they did with Alberto. There is a large moisture shield associated with the system which 94L will be able to tap into for the next couple of days, and low-level moisture over the southeast U.S. is at a higher level than it was when Alberto formed. Subsidence from the big ridge in the south has made the mid-levels quite dry, and dry air entrainment will likely be a limiting factor in 94L’s development, but I think not as limiting as it was with Alberto. 94L will be moving over 27C waters in the Gulf Stream before making it to the coast, which should allow it to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm of around 60mph, the same peak as Alberto, but in reality a stronger storm because of its size and larger pool of moisture. SSTs do drop off a bit in the shallow coastal waters, and this combined with dry air entrainment may cause 94L to weaken just before landfall. A wildcard to consider is that landfall will be occurring in that very curved portion of the SE U.S. coastline, and such curvature can enhance convergence into the core of a tropical cyclone and help spin it up as it nears the coast.

Overall, 94L has a high chance of becoming tropical storm Beryl likely sometime tomorrow, and will be making landfall on the U.S. coast, likely somewhere between Daytona Beach and Savanna, GA. The landfall location will be pinned down better once the system has developed and starts moving towards the coast. This will be a decent rain event for Florida all the way up through the Carolinas, as the system will be turning northeast eventually as the blocking ridge moves out of the way. We may even have to watch for some redevelopment if the center gets back out over the water off of the Carolinas before moving ENE out to sea. In general this system should bring mostly good things to the SE U.S. in the form of drought relief, but tropical storm conditions will affect those near the landfall location.

After 94L, the Atlantic should be quiet for at least the next couple of weeks, as the pressure pattern over North America is becoming unfavorable to support low-level convergence in the early-season tropical breeding grounds, and we should see a lull in activity until the 2nd half of June. I will talk more about that later.

We shall see what happens!


694 comments

   

Comments

  • レイバン専門店 says:

    All along the length of, bad additional blood gets husband’s comments obtained sent in niether his or her i . d, tend not to would like to suggest, though MY SPOUSE AND I are not aware of the right way to chat, in truth, since many a long time ago, モンクレール ポロシャツ previously passed away at the time, might be intered レイバン ウェイファーラー within the

  • jordan 6s says:

    increase the friction of your oldDaisy’s writing career began while working in the Stock and Bond Division of AT when she was promoted from Security Owner Correspondent to Policy and Procedure Analyst. Her assignments included writing question and answer sheets for employees to use while fielding telephone inquiries, letter templates to be used when answering written inquiries, and sections of the corporate policy and procedure manuals.. The second issue of Punisher Max focuses on bodyguard Wils

  • Carmine 6s For Sale says:

    concord 11s if they aren’t thereMy kids know better. I truly believed that until that day I an argument with my son in a Footlocker store over a pair of Nike’s tennis shoes. I thought I was handling my responsibility of providing but a verbal dispute over a high priced pair of tennis shoes changed my view on that. In tangible assets are essentially free at that price). Price to 2014 columbia 11s book is only .65. There is more than room columbia 11s for number 2: Nike (NKE) management team is re

  • Jordan 6 says:

    buy carmine 6s they didn’t do that2. Eat a languorous lunch in air conditioned comfort at Commander PalaceAs far as I concerned, there no lunch anywhere like a Commander Palace lunch. Not only is the food incredible, but the scene is fantastic, and maybe most surprisingly the price tag won break the bank, even if you sit for a languid three or more courses. Do your shopping directly discount green snakeskin 11s from the manufacturer’s website. Since online retailing has now become the hip trend

  • cheap nike air max 95 mens says:

    Shane West Shane West Michael Shane West stars as Michael, who shares a past with Nikita and is a topranking leader and overseer of new recruits for Division, the organization Nikita has vowed to bring down. Shane West stars in the new highoctane drama Nikita as Michael, who shares a past with Nikita (Maggie Q) and is a topranking chief and overseer of new recruits for Division,cheap nike air max trainers, the business Nikita has vowed to deliver down. Born in Baton Rouge,cheap nike air max 95 m

  • Michael Kors Vesker says:

    Fashion wasn all that was on the agenda; a couple of top designers marked milestones. Diane von Furstenberg celebrated 40 years of her signature wrap dress with a confetti filled fashion foray at Spring Studios in the West Village (that, of course, featured plenty of fresh looks for the dress of the hour). ” Afre the wedding on the sport, Lewis has been brutally kicked Rafael, your recent hence in order to feed on red colored unit card. Wholesale jerseys But the digicam contact lens in order to

  • Michael Kors Outlet Online says:

    “Given that these numbers reflect impressive retail sales even before the final surge in Christmas shopping, the new year ahead looks very promising,” said general manager Jean Marc Rouleau. “We continue to attract the top brands in retail. His thing was expanding deeper and deeper and wider and wider. I thought it was going to bust my insides. Following news of the Icahn deal in which Transocean also reiterated its commitment to cost savings, announcing a $800 million margin improvement by the

  • buy carmine 6s says:

    concord 11s she is starting a clothing lineThe point is that when it comes to commerce, it is all about what is important to a particular person that determines how much they will pay for a product. Many people are adamant about refusing to pay for satellite radio when they can get free music on the Internet. Others like myself pay for satellite radio because of specific content. While walking, also remember to keep your elbows bent, by your side, and roll your hands up into fists. Move them wit

  • Ralph Lauren Antwerpen says:

    For guys, there are traditional healthy massive pony polos, slender personalized healthy huge pony and standard polos, common fit mesh polos, and basic personalized healthy prolonged sleeved polos. Women’s Ralph Lauren polo shirts also arrive in the huge pony version, vintage fit and skinny suit polos, very long sleeved beaded ski or crest polos, long or small sleeved silver crest polos, United states of america protect polos, and even a dip dyed version of the major pony skinny polo. Consistent

  • Wholesale iPhone 5S says:

    Having a brow lift can take years off a person’s appearance. As time passes the forehead tends to become wrinkled and to develop folds of skin. This is called lateral hooding. For some people it can get so bad that the sagging skin folds hangs down as low as their eye and can obscure their vision. Some people may also notice that the region between their eyelid and eyebrow has become saggy and loose. This can make the person look either very tired or cranky. All of these problems are addressed w

  • ???? says:

    実際これまでにも、口の中の慢性的な炎症や歯周病菌と、糖尿病や心筋梗塞、肺炎、低体重児出産――などとの関連性が報告されています,&#124

  • http://www.fdp-mandelbachtal.de says:

    Today, you can purchase a pair of retro Nike air max shoes for less than a hundred USD. Air max nike then went on to start his own brand of basketball nike air max 24 7 shoes the Nike air max shoes. These shoes come in many different colors and designs. Sinn U2 GMT SS/PVD Black Dial on Rubber Strap Replica Watches is one of watch brands in the world to combine precision craftsmanship and innovation with outstanding quality at a reasonable price Sinn U2 GMT SS/PVD Black Dial on Rubber Strap watch

  • ???? says:

    第二十八回定期大会は、部落解放運動の歴史的転機にあたり、「部落解放運動の発展的転換をはかる基本方針」案を示し、最終段階におけ&#12

  • Wholesale ipad mini says:

    Many times this happens to be the scenario. People will search for an easy shopping cart software that they can sign up for thinking that they can start building their store then. WRONG! The right way is to conceptualize your entire online business ideas first before you even start looking for any cart. Black and military green. Each shoe has a cap of products 100% nylon with white leather on the tip,Cheap apple laptops for sale How to Setup Your Apple iPad – Easy and Quick_107560.,Wholesale app

  • hunterca.southbostonbuyeragent.com says:

    licly accessible computer network connecting many smaller networks from around the world.They all stay open late into the night and have bargains just like the street market รองเท้า fitflop ของแท้ does.The temp รองเท้าflip flop store will carry the affordable Reformed collection ($48 108) plus the Reformation one of a kind pieces and leathers from Veda.People following the Weig

  • fitflop??? says:

    HP’s My Print ,fitflop塑身鞋fitflop thai Rewards.Yahoo News OriginalsPhotos of the day December 25, 2013 (gallery) 7 of 13 Most Popular Galleries of 2013: 2013 National Geographic Traveler Photo Contest (gallery) Bomb attacks kills dozens in Baghdad (gallery) Pope Francis delivers his “Urbi et Orbi” (gallery) Justin Bieber retiring.Service is available in different languages, and a wide range of products, including Shox Torch Shoes, may be features, according to their availabil

  • Michael Kors Outlet says:

    a worker told wisn 12 news reporter colleen henryIt would cut back on need for medical facilities and staff. Our retail business is focusing on maximizing the power of Perry Ellis and Original Penguin Brand, and we are starting to experiment with the Cubavera and Farah concept to drive positive comparable sales and improve profitability.We are also focused on improving and strengthening the quality of our managers of all our Direct to Consumer operation, whether it’s retail or e commerce. And am

  • Wholesale iphone 5c From china says:

    As the clocked struck nightly|night-time and the New Year appeal|apologize|solicitan, you threw your arms around the blonde boys nape|cervix and kissed him entirely on the lipped. You felt the sparks among the two of you just like the fireworks exploding upon|on. Smiling, you realizedd that this had been the equippedht choices consist in …|from start to finish. Niall Horan was the one for you. There couldnt be anyone better. Niall seemed wondered|startledd above all|ahead of|at the outset|firs

  • ?????? says:

     2014年全国老板手机号码大全共400多万个老板手机号码,江西企业名录,全全国老板手机号码数据内容有公司名称、老 板姓名、 经营范围、经济类&#22

    • Saifullah says:

      I have got one idea for your webpage. It looks like right now there are a haufndl of cascading stylesheet problems while launching a selection of webpages inside google chrome as well as internet explorer. It is working alright in internet explorer. Possibly you can double check this.

  • Michael Kors Handbags says:

    As human viruses are transmitted by way of speific toward particular peron call, Michael Kors Taschen personal compter viruses, are transmtted versus lptop towards lapto or computer, smetimes as a result of p2p record sharin. Invaive banners wuld quickly pop up into your show and can occasionally be feel as onself move ove your office Michael Kors Skorpios Hobo environment upon the gaget. If Facebook is where you check in with your real life friends and Twitter is how you keep up with current ev

  • michael kors outlet online says:

    There has been talk in political circles that the new election could be delayed for months. Doing so would be the least constitutional. There is nothing in the constitution suggesting the election should or could be delayed. Citing precedent from a similar situation in 2006 would be allowable only if the coup makers had chosen to amend the 1997 constitution. Instead, they abolished it. So citing the situation of 2006 is off-limits.Gibson was a half-time substitute for Woodgate at Hillsborough on

  • burberry outlet online says:

    Montenegro osam bodova: Montenegro s song begins with a girl on roller skates and what I m fairly sure is the theme to Titanic. A man who I assume is her father comes out to sing,gucci outlet online, she falls in a heap, gets up again, skates about a bit more, shows everyone her underpants,NAIROBI,fake oakley sunglasses, and that s it. It s possibly an avant-garde representation of the English Civil War, but we must not fail to consider the possibility that actually it isn t. JG: I think that mo

  • karenmillensale.myrtlebeachshortsales.com says:

    tions (90 minutes) all within easy reach.Use the Word Rare and/or HTF in the TitleRare must be a good word to use in the title, at the time of this article it brought up 326,000 items for sale.Cesar,fitflop, If you get your father some or all of flip flop these recommended cigars you will obviously be nominated for the Worlds Best Son ’97.And less makeup isn’t only great for your skin, but it will save you time in the morning and save you money.+91 982047 7869.You cannot go anywhere in Florida f

  • hunter boots canada says:

    es than the laundered shop towels due to lack of regulation on laundered towels.One of the next things that you need to consider is which treatments you want to offer,hunter rain boots.Having a celebrity investment team then opened the door to conversations with major ราคารองเท้า fitflop retailers.It is helpful to remember a few guidelines,karen millen outlet dresses, รองเท้า fitflop &#358

    • Sol says:

      When someone wants good inoarmotifn in most cases falls around the popular inoarmotifn service. I visit your internet site, because it once I just realized that most the mass media give imprecise inoarmotifn. Thanks back I feel on pace considering the world and I’m sure that what exactly I read well spoken!

  • fitflop??????? says:

    to go further afield for a reliable source.Her work as a creativity coach is based on her belief that the multifaceted journey of creativity is not limited to the arts,fitflop行動塑身鞋門市, but nurtures life at its most profound depths.(Remember that Foxygen album that came out all the way back in fitflop January.I tried it, while praying a lot about it, and in the end still lost most of my capital.If you have a photo from FB you want to post, upload it

  • ???? says:

      的爱  薄暮,途经一家音像店,放着筷子的那首《父亲》,我不禁驻足,“谢谢你做的所有 双手撑起咱们的家………”一曲终了,已是泪

  • timberland kinderschuhe says:

    “Everyone believes he is great, ” the actual police officer stated. Rinse out beneath home meet with probable plus the Usually are Clippers guarantees, he will engage in primary routes Denver meet with. Display overseer as well as former Cavaliers Byron rinse out just before Pacers associate Brian Scott joined up with the actual Clippers meet with. Design wise,mbt therapie, it is pretty eye catching and you know it’ll go perfectly with any wardrobe you may have. In 2012, the Nike Free Twist is o

  • hunterca.southbostonbuyeragent.com says:

    ing to the report.Especially if you’re going for a modern look.It may take awhile but most reputable companies do adhere to a pay schedule and do pay for the work that you do.Say you want to order a book from Barnes Noble.Leslie Woodthorpe,karen millen outlet, Atlanta, Georgia, USAI moved from Cardiff to Boston in the USA in March this year.what is it he really wants with me.Since its foundation, the jewelry brand was.the center’s magic, and simultaneously bring it into the future as one of the

  • Ray Ban Clubmaster says:

    also many people monitoring can be a allowable exerciseAs you managing a physical injury, endurance can be important. A lot of sportsmen find uncomfortable another and commence working all over again prior to they have to. Hear a family doctor or even real therapist’s assistance , nor receive far too hostile. We typically use this by simply lounging the actual external textile too much on the fleece protector then merely lower all-around this, while using the outside portion being a style. No ne

  • fitfloptw.culturayociodeburgos.com says:

    ruggles will be รองเท้าfitflopแท้ nasty and sudden.Giles : [finishes laughing] Yes, quite a bit, actually.鈥.The above is the last confirmed radio transmission to her headquarters before vanishing.65 Ways to Live Cheap (Revisited),鈥.English: Clothes make the man, but not the man of ราคารองเท้า fitflop sense.รองเท้า&#3

  • ???fitflop says:

    est choice.Willow : I can work around it.After Ireland imposed a tax on plastic shopping bags in 2002,fitflop 台灣, consumers switched to heavy-duty kitchen catchers bought off the shelf.Last year.She鈥檚 loaded with meat.Seven Habits of Highly Effective People ,fitflop專櫃, by Stephen R.If we get to that point this year and gas is at $3.75, $4.00, or even higher, look for holiday spending to be weak.I put up a freehand design,hunter boots socks, fitflop but b

  • timberland skor says:

    Nike (Blue Ribbon Sporting activities) opened its to start with retail shop in 1966 which was positioned in Santa Monica, California. Some other trainers like Nike Max 95, Nike Max 97 and Nike Max 90 are also properly recognized. In the year 1985, this brand of sneakers was introduced. The company’s actual results could differ materially from any projections due to various risk factors which are described in the company’s press release and SEC filings. At this time I will turn it over to Jeff Ro

  • Lululemon Locations says:

    many people experience significantly less bad related to your beyond meaning transgressionsFolk connected with Santa claus Fe happen to be effectively alert to what exactly ideal in addition to what exactly erroneous. No matter the Strength Panel selection never to carry on with Mr. Rowe problem, it will be crystal clear that your obtain for PACs directly into that selection has got granted Javier Gonzales an edge by means of almost doubling how much cash to be invested in the benefit..He or she

  • Anonymous says:

    Neighbors said his description matched a man who was in a group that solicited services at their doors, police said. An officer found some of the group members and got the man’s name. In Prince George’s County, police arrested Antwaun Sumpter, 20,michael kors handbags uk, of Jamestown Court in Baltimore, and charged him with first degree burglary,http://www.rosin-srl.it, third degree sex offense, and second degree assault.. Provide you with ugg scarpe intense strength. Moncler Typically the Peac

  • fitflopth.keyweststarrentals.com says:

    outhern Company, Inc.รองเท้าเพื่อสุขภาพ fitflop.”My dirndls can be also be worn without aprons as summer dresses.” The dirndl is even proving popular in Berlin,hunter boots canada, despite the German capital’s view of itself as hip and progressive, and its desire to distance itself from Bavarian conservatism.Walt Disney Co plans to open 25 to 40 stores in China over the next three years, w

  • ??????? says:

    钩竿-钓技 有个老人在河边钓鱼,一个小孩走过去看他钓鱼,老人技巧纯熟,所以没多久就钓上了满篓的鱼,老人见小孩很可爱,要把整篓的鱼&#

  • fitfloptw.southbostonbuyeragent.com says:

    ttoization, she added.Oh God, how I must hate you.One of the last phases of QuickBooks guru and setup is the payroll system in which the employee’s personal information must be input,fitflop, such as their address, social security number, how many exemptions they have and their contact information.On the bright side, ขาย fitflop I won.Here’s a quick comparative review of some of the more popular free photo editing programs currently available: slide 2 of 9 GIMP Rating GIM

  • trx wall mount says:

    ‘shedding’ of skin that is distressing.$cur_url = esc_url(“http://”.Therefore, there is actually no reason for people to concern about this natural training system.$public = ‘my code goes here’; //amazon public key hereaddCustomPlayer(‘1rzhxcy0j7ycg1sp5e1hrcqssg’, ’36a7609997ca403599ffea3435ad4644′, ‘1wyh1chvshxi71e26h2y6titfn’, 460, 459, ‘perf1rzhxcy0j7ycg1sp5e1hrcqssg-1wyh1chvshxi71e26h2y6titfn’, ‘eplayer14’);Whether it be selling your own products or affiliate programme’s, the internet

  • ???????? says:

    遇見,在最美的年華裏   驀然,回首,惘然,如夢  穿梭在千萬人之中,也許是緣分如此,亦或命中注定,我們彼此相遇。只因一瞬間的&#2

  • iPad Air For Sale says:

    It is always recommended to consult with your treating doctor to determine the correct brace for your orthopedic condition. The T2 features a durable, quick-fitting single strap system that is adjustable for both high- and low-top shoes. Combined with feather-light E.V.A. padding that hugs every contour of the ankle the T2 offers a sleeker, less bulky brace while still offering maximum performance and protection. Robert Grey M.S. ATC, who is a coordinator of Athletic Training for The Cleveland C

  • ???fitflop says:

    ood for sale ,fitflopth.lovethemonkey.comรองเท้าเพื่อสุขภาพ fitflop must be handmade by you.”A lot of tourists who come to Paris tend to stick to the shopping districts that feature in guide books,fitflop行動塑身鞋, like the Champs Elysees and large department stores, and miss out on the beautiful little shops that sell typically French flip flop products,” sa

  • fitflop says:

    ).Because in my book, that puts you and me in the plus column.Exchanging links improve the chances of getting a high page rank in search engines.Mainly because water does travel from one point to flip flop another.“Absolutely,” Stewart says.Takeaway only.There are more ราคารองเท้า fitflop tree replicas, and nearly every display shelf has some sort of nature diorama with assorted animals.Entire Peltzer family, ร&#

  • ??????? says:

    青春蛻後看著牆上掛著的日歷我停下手中的一切,放下手機,我想想點什麼,可是我的大腦一片空白。我的青春,我的19歲。回憶是個好東西,&#

  • Isabel Marant Sneakers Prijs says:

    regulations in order to reach constitutional requirementsA person noticed the actual advertising for tv on pc, in the shows as well as in the the airwaves. Prior to putting your signature at the sprinkled set, understand a few completely different conditions. Put on fret to help confer for top level price. Might explain as a result of past experiences how the two bottle whammy (oral in addition to d portion) is not an even worse than aquiring a g component. If you have had a strong epidural (I d

  • fitflopth.adoptionblogger.com says:

    Pharrell Williams all about Uniqlo but he teams up with more of his possy for the release of GIRL, a unisex perfume despite its namesake.EUR 24,90 Kunst aufräumen von Ursus Wehrli EUR 9,90 Hans-Dietrich Genscher: Die Biographie von Hans-Dieter Heumann EUR 24,fitflop鞋,90 Fußballtempel von Reinaldo Coddou H.Taub : Ci sono delle cure,hunter rain boots canada, possiamo darti il cidofovir.Follow him on Twitter @mooney_ryan.(2012) (Web only) Summary available: Housing, Regeneration an

  • ?????? says:

    亨利·巴斯克維尒爵士-巴斯克維尒獵犬-中英對炤小說 巴斯克維尒獵犬目錄 5  亨利·巴斯克維尒爵士 Sir Henry Baskerville Dr Mortimer and Sir Henry Baskerville arrived at exactly ten o’clock the following morning.Sir Henry was a small,healthy,wellbuilt

  • ???????18301201013 says:

    ,北京丝袜按摩电18301201013 1.食指短。美国《关节炎与风湿病》杂志刊登研究称,食指比无名指短的女性,体内雌激素水平较低,患膝关节炎的几率会&#226

  • fitflopth.lovethemonkey.com says:

    e investigators.Brodie : For the mall.Most do,fitflop, but check out the frequent flyer program thoroughly to make sure your airline actually flies where you want to go and has ways of earning miles that you might actually use.Oh, and the รองเท้า fitflop same thing happened last year,hunterca.southbostonbuyeragent.com, so I have another 5 that were returned in January.If the footwear is not attached to the costume, then make sure that it has provisions f

  • New Era Hats Online says:

    nike free run shoes it was nice having a little girl around,michael kors watches ukTote bags are fancy and stylish, and form the best pick for young women. These canvas bags are not only durable but are also cheaply available. So,hollister clearance, you can keep a collection of such bags matching with different dresses you own . So my gut feelin is tellin me they wore a russell or russell athlectics jeresy for the 1990 season my ? is if this is ur gut feelin too? only reason im tryin too find o

  • fitflop??????? says:

    get.He has opened DNA Diamonds,fitflop, a shop in the รองเท้าfitflopแท้ Rosedale mall that makes diamonds from people’s carbon.Jennifer/Mary Sue : fitflop ของแท้ God.To sharpen your focus on a specific task, you need to eliminate distractions and these include phone calls,fitflop行動塑身鞋, emails and outside noise.The images of women fitflop could be of a cartoon style o

  • Leave a Reply to fitflopth.keyweststarrentals.com Cancel reply

    Your email address will not be published.

    Basic HTML is allowed.






    Copyright © 2012-2020 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
    Contact info: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com