Atlantic Still Quiet, though Tropical Wave May Bring Wetness to Bahamas and SE U.S.

   Posted by Levi at 7:44am on July 11, 2012

I apologize for the lack of posts since Debby’s dissipation. Summer has been busy so far for me.

The Atlantic remains quiet through the first 10 days of July, as was expected. It will continue to be this way through at least the end of the month the way things currently look. El Nino years favor a quick-firing start to the season in June, but a quick ramp-down to start the heart of summer. Our next real shot at tropical development will likely not come until August when the MJO comes back to the Atlantic and drags some upward motion out of the eastern Pacific, where they have a whole train of storms going, and moves it into the Atlantic as the African wave train strengthens.

Speaking of waves, the only somewhat interesting feature to watch right now is a very large, dry tropical wave along 45W that has no thunderstorms associated with it, but can be seen with a vigorous signature in the mid-level flow.

This wave will be moving WNW into the the region between the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the SE U.S. during the next 4-7 days, being steered towards this region by a strong Bermuda High to the north. While none of the computer models currently do anything with this wave, moisture will be becoming more abundant in the SW Atlantic as the wave moves in, and upper-level temperatures are and will continue to be colder than normal due to significant upper-level troughing over the Bahamas, which overlaying 28-29C waters can cause some instability. As a result, some convection can be expected off the SE U.S. coast that may bring some wetness to the Bahamas and the coastal SE U.S. over the weekend. Given the large size of the wave, tropical or subtropical development chances seem low for now, especially with no excitement from the computer models, but expect the atmosphere to become rather soupy in the region with at least some thunderstorm activity, perhaps a little more than currently forecasted by some of the models.

CMC 96-hour forecast:

If you couldn’t tell, I’m showing off some of the new graphics I have been developing in my spare time. The first image was a GDAS analysis of 650mb meridional wind/heights, and the 2nd was the well-known Canadian model forecast. These and more products can be found on the Analysis Tools page. I will be adding more as time goes on.

Overall, the Atlantic in general will likely remain void of significant tropical activity until August. Remember, a fast start doesn’t always mean an above-normal hurricane season. We should end up with a near normal storm count by the end of it.

We shall see what happens!


37 comments

   

Comments

  • David Denman says:

    Thanks for the update. The new graphics are very easy to read and are laid out nicely. Thanks for your work.

  • WxJAK says:

    Just a quick note – thank you for the update and nice work on the color scale for the PWAT graphic. IMO, that is the best I have ever seen as it is very intuitive.

  • Autistic2 says:

    Thank You. Your work shows and is appreacated!

  • HeadStone says:

    Again– thanks for the quick update ! Can’t wait till the “Real” season kicks in .

  • HondosGirl says:

    Thanks for the update Levi. While I have been missing your posts … it was definitely worth the wait to see the new graphics. Thanks for making it easier for us novices to understand.

  • weatherh98 says:

    Thanks Levi.. good to get off the climate change crap on wunderground sometimes.

  • George Sullivan says:

    Living on a boat in the Florida Keys does have one challenge; Keeping informed about the tropical summer time weather. Your thorough and informative forecasts, Levi, make that task so much easier and because of Your great work, I’m sleeping a whole lot better better this time of Year.

  • harrykane says:

    As usual, your post is truely informative. Looking forward to more. I always open you post before any others including Mr Masters Posts. Keep up the great work

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  • Gary Z says:

    Why would anyone say they can’t wait for the real season?
    Do you want a hurricane to hit you, or do you live in Kansas?

  • DT- wxrisk.com says:

    Nice graphics

    • Thierry says:

      cupcake8million Posted on congrats- your liinvg my dream since you won’t see your family/ friends for a long tie you could go cheesy- wish you were here or on the trail again or Where in the world is (your name)? Best of luck!

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        c172Remarkable post & Outstanding weblog! I would like to begin a blog too but I’ve no clue where to start. I have the relvnaet skills to do it (not that hard on the practical part) but I honestly feel like I’m just too lazy to post frequently That’s the matter, if you start you need to go all of the way b7

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  • Chip Meyer says:

    Haven’t looked myself, but am wondering when MJO starts to swing this way again?

    • Levi says:

      It could still be a while. The ECMWF, probably the most reliable predictor of the MJO, doesn’t show it getting into phases 8 or 1 through mid-August. The monthly forecast can be a little too slow, but we probably won’t be seeing the MJO for at least the next 2 weeks.

  • natureobs says:

    Let’s hope for a boring summer hurricane wise.

    You have mail, BTW.

    Thanks for your interesting reports as always.

    • Ouron says:

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  • terry says:

    Levi:
    Just looking at imagery this AM and thinking we might have some “awakening” in the Atlantic Basin. Not today, not tomorrow, but looks like some hints of things to come…
    Your thoughts?

  • Anonymous says:

    I was just reading a blog and it said the SAL is going down. It also said some of the computer models are suggesting something developing off the coast of Africa. Have you been following this?

    • Levi says:

      Cape Verde season is almost upon us. Expect some stronger tropical waves that could develop as we dig into August.

    • Alvin says:

      Makes sence why girahim watned to release the demon lord he watned him dead so he could get the triforce of power it’s mentioned in twilight princess he ends up missing but he never got sealed away cause he was originally a spirit like the master sword but when it shows the video of Minda getting struck by Zant and how he could teleport ect made sence he was in Zant and that when Gannondorf was expected to get triforce of power that he would steal it off him thats why Zant snaps his neck and Gannondorf losses the triforce so there has to be a return of girahim

  • Anonymous says:

    When are you planning your next tidbit?

  • Anonymous says:

    Are you doing your tidbit today?

  • Chip Meyer says:

    Funny that Levi has “appeared” idle for the past couple weeks. Dude, you have to be going stir crazy with this inactivity….

  • Mike says:

    BHC ought to throw one of their yellow dimes down on the chart near Guadaloupe for the fun of it. Its almost wave season.

  • Mike says:

    NHC not BHC

  • Boveovd says:

    Sigh Seriously? Why can’t they come to the east coast too? Don’t they realize that plae ticetks cost alot? And that North America is a HUGE continent? It’s bad enough I have to miss out on E3. I really wish I could go. For all those that do go, have fun! I’ll just have to buy the cd!

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