Watching the Southern Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean in Early July, Central Atlantic in Mid-July
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Levi, can’t tell you how much I appreciate your insight on the tropics, I’ve pretty much learned a lot of what I know from you. I love all of your videos, commentary, & models, etc, I know you are going to be a big factor one day in the meteorological community. Interesting to see you’re coming around to the idea I’ve had for several days for a system in the deep tropical Atlantic in July, and given we have the cycles of AMO/PDO in favor (I notice that a lot of storms that form east of the Lesser Antilles in July do so around the edge of the cycles of AMO/PDO), the already strong tropical waves, -IOD, cool east Pacific & Gulf of Guinea, & even model support looks like we may have something to deal with. I am worried though whatever develops may get awfully close to the US east coast & NE Caribbean islands with the Azores-Bermuda high so strong from the +NAO in place. My question is what made you really consider deep tropical Atlantic development in July as a possibility?
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Hi levi thank you very much for the update what do you think.Is it the same thinking an above normal season cause i see you mention the bermuda high which isn’t favourable for devalopment in july but you could still see tropical cyclone trying to form are things looking better for the east coast or not so good? many thanks
My thinking for an above-normal season hasn’t changed. As I mentioned in the video, so far the Bermuda High has been strong, but far enough north that it may not impede tropical development.
Where do you think the bay of Campeche storm go if it develops?
Until/if we get an actual disturbance to track, we can’t know specifically where one might go. If a storm were to form there in about a week’s time, its options would be north or west.
I just have to say I learned more from watching this video about tropical development than I have in the 10 years I’ve lived in southern Louisiana. Even though I didn’t fully understand everything, I understood the majority of it (and I sidetracked to look up an item or two). The graphics, the delivery, and the pace of the video were spot on. Obviously, I am not a meteorologist, or even an armchair meteorologist. I try to pick up what I can from wunderground, NHC, and a couple of other sites. But I truly think this is the most concise explanation I have ever seen or read. Usually it’s a presentation of a fact (e.g., ‘it’s unusual for early July’), without an explanation as to the science or history behind the fact presented. By the way, I found out about your site from a poster on Jeff Masters’ blog on wunderground.
Actually having a better understanding of where and when these storms can develop and track gives me more peace of mind than waiting for the last minute scramble once a storm is bearing down.
I am really looking forward to watching more of your videos.
Many thanks,
Bonnie
Thank you Bonnie. Your comment means a lot.
Levi,
I’m traveling to Destin Fl, (6/29-7/7). Which prompted me this week to start seeking information about the weather that week. I was given this Link via chat on a weather website.
I cannot thank you enough for the enormous amount of information. This site is now marked as favorite.
Keep the updates coming- A+
Jason (STL)
Im glad you dont charge for your comments,like Huffman and Clown Weather has gone too.If you did ,this would be the only site I would pay.Keep up the good work..
Thanks Levi!!
Much Thanks Levi, you are the reason I am preparing for a storm in South Florida. First time to stock up on some canned foods, water, batteries, and malted milk balls! Got to have the malted milk balls to releave the stress of the storm. Ive been through Andrew and Wilma and these storms are no joke. And if a storm doesn’t come, gee, I got malted milk balls!! Your the best Levi, Keep up the fantastic work.
Good for you!
Hi Levi
Thank You for your efforts.
The best place to go to understand tropical development!
The surfers are catching on… you know before most how things will likely play out.
Invaluable insight.
Thanks again!
Hi Levi,
I’m very concerned about traveling to Costa Rica July 13-20… It seems everyone keeps circling this area. Is this right to be getting concerned?? Unfortunately we did not purchase travel insurance.
Costa Rica is very wet, but it’s far enough south that it doesn’t really get hit by hurricanes. It’s extremely rare. I wouldn’t worry.
Levi keep up the awesome work. I love your blog. Makes me wish sometimes that I had done my PhD in a different field.
Levi,
Can you tell me if there is going to be all days rains next week in Destin? of just spot thunderstorms. Models run on Accuweather is leaning for rain out almost daily. I’m leaving Friday. Can you just tell me what your thoughts are about Destin weather over the next week?
We are burning up over here in Texas as the west 2/3 of our state needs rain badly. Our Hill Country Lakes are down 50% and we see no rain in sight for next 10 days. We need a Tropical Storm to form in western GOM or Campeche and drift to the north.
Any predictions please would be appreciated.
Just a quick question and you may have answered it already,what is the source or cyclogenesis for the area in gulf to form?
Thanks Dave
Thanks Levi