Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico – Will Bring Blustery/Wet Weekend to North Gulf Coast

   Posted by Levi at 5:13pm on October 3, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico from a disturbance that moved out of the Caribbean. Thunderstorm activity remains limited to the eastern side, and the circulation appears to be tilted to the east with height due to some southwesterly wind shear. Such shear is typical with October storms in the gulf, and it is unlikely to go away. In fact, as an upper trough digs in from the west as Karen nears landfall, this wind shear should get worse. Thus, the storm is likely to remain eastern-weighted, with most weather impacts occurring east of landfall in 60-72 hours. The NHC has increased Karen’s winds to 65mph after recon data during the night, but the thunderstorm activity has weakened since that time, and a new plane will re-assess Karen’s intensity. The maximum winds were very localized already, and with a central pressure of only 1005mb, Karen in reality is a pretty weak tropical storm at this time.

The GFS has been throwing a fly into the ointment by forecasting Karen to strengthen substantially before landfall, reaching minimal hurricane strength, along with a track farther east well into Florida. The GFS so far is the only global model to do this, as the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC are not as bullish. I consider the GFS solution to likely be erroneous feedback, given that Karen is already struggling to get vertically stacked, and wind shear will only get worse with time. In addition, the low-level inflow pattern currently in place with large-scale anticyclonic (clockwise) flow in the SW Atlantic is not conducive for storms, as Karen will lose her moist inflow channel from the Caribbean as she moves north. The environment favors the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solutions of a weak-moderate tropical storm moving into the north gulf coast, farther west than the GFS ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The NHC is forecasting Karen to become a hurricane and then weaken slightly before landfall, likely due to her initial intensity already being 65mph. Karen currently appears to be weaker, and if the next recon plane affirms this, then Karen’s chances of becoming a hurricane currently seem dim. Blustery, tropical storm force conditions and heavy rain will impact the north gulf coast east of the center at landfall late Saturday and Sunday.



29 comments

   

Comments

  • Dave P. says:

    Glad your back Levi,hope every thing is alright.

  • Joseph DeJesus says:

    Thank you, Levi. As usual this was a professional analysis.

  • Anonymous says:

    how bad will it be for new Orleans, Louisiana?

  • Tom Emmons says:

    Has your opinion changed any with latest data? Still 65mph and pressure down to 1001mb. I’m in Mobile so you can see I’m highly interested.

  • Anonymous says:

    Leave the forecasting of Karen to NHC, Levi.

  • Kim says:

    Thanks Levi!!

  • Dave P. says:

    From looking at things this morning,your forecast may be right on.

  • kwarren says:

    Thank you Levi.

    I like your post/blog.

    Here in NOLA…hyperviligant…as I have elderly folks.

    The timing of the turn to the East is of greatest concern.
    As slow moving storm with NOLA on the east side of it would not be a good scenario.

  • Calvin Jenkins says:

    Looks like the forecast did not turn out too well for you. Also disappointed that you made one forecast, one post on Karen and left it at that. Realize you’re a student and all but if you’re going to forecast, then commit to it and don’t leave people hanging. I guess there will be no follow up on why your forecast was a bust?

    • Dave P. says:

      This man was right on,the Hurricanes center was predicting a Hurricane or strong storm,his prediction was a weak storm. Its obvious you Cal dont have any predictions of your own.Its easier to complain about someone else.

    • wxhstrn says:

      You are right Calvin and the season outlook was especially troublesome; Levi was much too aggressive on season. Piss poor season. Now look back Levi and research WHY things did not pan out as aggressive as you expected. Research & give reasons & move on to the next season. In my outlooks I always look at what went right/wrong and try to explain why…what worked well & where were the problems.

      Lets see a video on the season when it ends and what worked and what didn’t.

      • drewkendall says:

        Wxhstrn? What does that even stand for? “weather hamstring”?? Furthermore at the point where you threw-up this poignant diatribe “In my outlooks I always”. Who the hell are you anyway?? Easy to lash out at a student meteorologist what provides as hobby an excellent synopsis of time of verifcation conditions along with very reasonable predictions. If he was perfect, I’d suspect Levi would opt to bypass any graduate studies and simply take the NHC forecaster chair being offered. But of course it doesn’t really work that way, no less no more than the pass you’ll be provided by your important contribution to meteorology (okay, that was supposed to be funny actually). In so much as what you do in your outlooks – well, quite franklly I’ve never heard one of your outlooks. Let me guess though; you had this season perfectly “pegged” right? When…. somewhere around the 1st week of October?

        Oh, one more thing…… Calvin – how much did you pay to be privy to Levi’s forecasts or tropical updates? Yeah, thought so. Tell you what genius, lets have you share a sliver of your 79 I.Q. next season, buy providing a far more gripping detailed discussion and analysis on YOUR BLOG, as to why NHC’s May/Jun 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season will be such a bust. Or, feel free to opt out of “that challange” and simply wait for the season to be over. You might just find that a tad easier, right? As far as the mental trauma that you suffered from “hanging” in wait for any additional forecast by Levi on Karen, the threat to you and your home is now over. Why not simply go back to work, snag a beef jerky and a slurpee while your there, and make a couple mental notes for your added peace of mind next season. 1) a good place to get official info on Atlantic tropical systems during the hurricane season can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov 2) In case you lose tip #1….. a good place to get official info on Atlantic tropical systems during the hurricane season can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov . Finally, I highly recommend that you not attempt to go to college, maintain a blog, and chew gum at the same time. Attempting to keep up with the first two might cause anxiety and a conflict of time. There third might cause you to suffocate if swallowed down the wrong hole.

        • wxhstrn says:

          To drewkendall;

          “Wxhstrn? What does that even stand for? “weather hamstring”?? Furthermore at the point where you threw-up this poignant diatribe “In my outlooks I always”. Who the hell are you anyway?? Easy to lash out at a student meteorologist what provides as hobby an excellent synopsis of time of verifcation conditions along with very reasonable predictions.”

          First off, I guess I should ask “who the hell are you”? Who I am, you will find at the following; http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ (Retired Met with 37+ years of experience with the NWS)

          Sorry; I stand by my suggestion to Levi, to look at his forecast earlier in the season and investigate where his outlook was accurate and where it wasn’t and why, if possible.

          It is very helpful and therapeutic and have done it in my season outlooks/reviews since the mid 1990s with the National Weather Service in Southeast Michigan. I’m sure Levi is a big boy, he doesn’t need your idealized dribble for defense.

          Now, just what are your credentials drewkendall?

          • drewkendall says:

            Bill,

            My “CV” would not impress you. No more than your past title or employment should impress me. I do see however that you “perceive” some level of street cred by it and that it serves a function to help define yourself.

            By the way, I checked out your blog-site and enjoyed the “changing leaves” background photo. Ah, how I miss the array of beautiful colors from the Traverse City and Charlevoix Autumns , but I digress. Did you take that photo yourself?; I found that it nicely captured the muted sun, but had you considered using a couple different filters to really make the “reds pop”? You see Bill, in your pseudo ex-government Retired Met life (with 37+ years of experience with the NWS) a clarity existed; One in which “rank outranks other ranks”, GS Levels outrank other GS levels, and so on. Societal interaction however, clearly exhibit that in spite of your “Retired Met” qualifications, that many others might well have a superior capacity for photography, or driving, or as an educator, or simply as a human being. Fact is, we all have a “freedom” and a capacity to be kind, to be arrogant, or any other way we might wish to convey ourselves.

            So Bill, here’s exactly how I see it. I am who I am. I need not unnecessarily attack or impute others for their shortcomings. I simply have better things to do with my life. Then there are others, who choose to wade in the shallows where defecation floats, just so that one might have the opportunity to complain, assault blame, and somehow feel championed by it, LOL. As a point of fact Bill, I really don’t know whether or not Levi is a big boy or not, and have never spoke with or met the man. I do appreciate his effort however, the manner in which he provides clarity, and is an excellent speaker. For nothing less nor anything more, I find his blog insights interesting, entertaining, call it what you will. There are other blogs or weather forums which I check out from time to time and there are those that I have little time nor interest to follow as well. I would suggest that your attempt at a targeted personal condemnation at myself, simply for defending a student of the science who need not account for his inaccuracy any more than those who are paid for their job, fell rather flat. Your inference “idealized dribble”, implies a sullen jealous undertone or repressed anger, that your own self-worth might seem directly tied to those opportunities to degrade others; The apparent cause for such a manifest may in part be due to yourself having felt that you were never quite given the kudos or appreciation for that which you feel had been achieved or that you earned during your own career.

            Sorry, I stand to my prior statement to you, that it is easy to lash out at a student meteorologist what provides as hobby an excellent synopsis of time of verification conditions along with very reasonable predictions. If he was perfect, I’d suspect Levi would opt to bypass any graduate studies and simply take the NHC forecaster chair being offered to him now.

            Bill, I will offer you this public apology however. In light of the prior original statements made by Calvin, which I and others interpreted as an unconstructive attack, all due to his own sense of dispair regarding the outcome of the Atlantic season as a whole…… your remarks simply piggy backed his and thus were equally “assassinated” in the process. If your offer or suggestion of “learning by your mistakes” was purely meant as constructive than perhaps it only came across otherwise by the manner in which it appeared such a need to “slap a little boys hand” and instructively demand “Lets see a video on the season when it ends and what worked and what didn’t work. Bill, you said it yourself…. “Levi is a big boy”. He doesn’t owe me, you or anyone else a video, a “make up”, or an explanation. He, no different than you or I, may simply choose to make nice video’s, forecast hurricanes, or just study for college exams.

            Bill, you look like you put a lot of effort into your blog and I assume there are those who have an interest to read your musings and the historical insights you offer. Don’t you think it a little petty, if there were those who maintained a feed to your page simply to chastise you publicly (just “because they could”)? I mean c’mon, if one doesn’t like your grammar, sees flaws in your data analysis, or whatever….shouldn’t they simply take themselves to a happier place? You have a right to your opinion regarding Levi or anyone else for that matter, and there is nothing wrong with constructive support that perhaps may benefit others based on your own life’s experiences and knowledge base. Beyond that, if one gets their rocks off by dissing someone for their unsolicited efforts, why not simply:
            1) Take if “off-line” and send a personal email. At such a time, one may privately opt to learn from the messages content or simply hit the “delete button” should one feel condesended too.
            2) Go somewhere else, to a happier place

  • Dave P. says:

    I can see why anyone with half a brain left the Weather Underground.The minute anyone posts something intelligent he gets hammered by people on the sidelines.They are kinda like cockroaches.

  • Anonymous says:

    Calvin and wxhstrn, why are you people so critical? Levi does this as a service…not a job. He doesn’t owe anyone anything. He is very good at what he does and keep in mind that no one is perfect in weather or hurricane forecasting. Why not start your own weather pages and leave Levi alone!

  • harry kane says:

    Nobody predicted this slow season, nobody. Some people come out of the woodwork to be critical and hostile. This is a growing science.I remember in the 1960’s, the NHC had no idea where storms were headed. In the know forcasters would look at the storm itself and nothing much else. Today, forcasters are looking at weather features across the globe to predict movements of storms today. We have come along way baby! We still have lots more to learn about weather. This year there seemed to be another factor or several that forcasters missed. This year will be a good one for study to determine these factors so they can be added to our other knowledge. Twenty years from now forcasters will look at us and say they were in the twilight of forcasting. Great job to anyone who puts forth time and effort to share what they know. Afterall, that is all we have at this moment in time. Lets move on and learn. Thanks Levi

  • Chaser1 says:

    Hey Drew; you took the words right out of my mouth ;-)
    Keep up the good work Levi and look forward to your pre-season review for 2014 sometime next year!

    – Chaser1

  • Gary Z says:

    I’m just glad the season wasn’t a bad one.
    Who cares if the so called experts were wrong.
    Most of them are. Ever listen to stock market analysts? Totally full
    Of crap. They just guess.. Do your own homework.
    The kid tries…

  • wxhstrn says:

    I looked back at my postings to Levi and in NONE of the comments I made was there the harsh statements you intimated in your LONG drawn out amateurish psycho-babble. I didn’t see anything in your retort regarding YOUR background and credentials to address the subject at hand (tropical meteorology) or the attempt of psychoanalyzing one on the internet. It’s seems to me you are the one with repressed anger by your overdrawn and overblown personal attack on me.

    My constructive statement to Levi..

    “You are right Calvin and the season outlook was especially troublesome; Levi was much too aggressive on season. Piss poor season. Now look back Levi and research WHY things did not pan out as aggressive as you expected. Research & give reasons & move on to the next season. In my outlooks I always look at what went right/wrong and try to explain why…what worked well & where were the problems.

    Lets see a video on the season when it ends and what worked and what didn’t.”

    Your statements…

    “So Bill, here’s exactly how I see it. I am who I am. I need not unnecessarily attack or impute others for their shortcomings. I simply have better things to do with my life. Then there are others, who choose to wade in the shallows where defecation floats, just so that one might have the opportunity to complain, assault blame, and somehow feel championed by it, LOL.”

    “Your inference “idealized dribble”, implies a sullen jealous undertone or repressed anger, that your own self-worth might seem directly tied to those opportunities to degrade others; The apparent cause for such a manifest may in part be due to yourself having felt that you were never quite given the kudos or appreciation for that which you feel had been achieved or that you earned during your own career.”

    “Don’t you think it a little petty, if there were those who maintained a feed to your page simply to chastise you publicly (just “because they could”)? I mean c’mon, if one doesn’t like your grammar, sees flaws in your data analysis, or whatever….shouldn’t they simply take themselves to a happier place? You have a right to your opinion regarding Levi or anyone else for that matter, and there is nothing wrong with constructive support that perhaps may benefit others based on your own life’s experiences and knowledge base. Beyond that, if one gets their rocks off by dissing someone for their unsolicited efforts”

    Now, who’s really the real harsh critic?

    Bill

  • wxhstrn says:

    The above reply^^^was directed to drewkendall

  • harry kane says:

    I come to this website to learn about weather from Levi, not to hear the “pat your own back” dribble from has-been weather people and “know it alls”. Please allow this place to remain a weather window for a truely intelligent and exceptional weather wonder that is Levi. Levi, I hope these horse pucks don’t cause you to loose interest in helping alot of use that are weather impared. Thanks again Levi!

  • nicknack35 says:

    how can you learn from someone that can’t do it himself sorry the info may look good but its pointless listening to someone and other forecasters that have hyped all the season if you look at levi video clips he said the season would be simlar to 1996 and 2004 and florida may get one this season he thought this was the year for florida i don’t listen or i will certainly not learn anything about hurricanes especially from people that don’t know themselfs

  • nicknack35 says:

    saying that the vids levi does are intresting and nothing more ive watched all his video’s this season and especially his earlier vids of the season was very much wrong to how he predicted it think majority of people will not take notice in predictions now and only be intrested in a storm that may be heading there way

    • Chaser1 says:

      Hey dicknack35 – any reason why a person who see’s no value in the video’s or forecasts on this site…., would still be loser enough to to not only still check in to see whats new, but also feel the need to post crap about whether others will pay attention to Levi’s videos? You obviously have an even lesser ability to write with the use of punctuation, than you do to comprehend meteorology, weather diagnostics, and climatology. Oh one more thing buddy; good for you for no longer listening to “other forecasters that have hyped all the season”. You’ll like Sesame Street’s Weather segment! No bad things will ever happen in the land of rainbows and unicorns – you should feel very safe and happy there.

  • Dave P. says:

    Sure miss your insight,wish you could update this.Dave

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