Thanks for the update! Seems like 2023 season is going to experience explosive, rapid intensifying, major storms. Hope I am wrong, but the warm water is providing a lot of fuel!
Stay safe everyone 🙏
Thank you for another great explanation!
I appreciate the time you spend creating these updates!
Thank you again for the incredible and detailed updates. We especially appreciate that the terminology is understandable with the diagrams and markings. Thanks!!!
Lee is expected to stay at major hurricane status for at least the next 5 days, possibly 6 days.
Lee went from a cat 5 to a struggling cat 3 in only 18 hours due to wind shear… to see it strengthen this fast and deteriorate this quickly in only 36 hours is crazy, especially over warm open waters!
Thank you, Levi! You’re the only one I trust with these complex forecasts — always appreciate your honest and thoughtful takes over the constant hysteria-mongering on the “big” channels. Keep it up!
I remember John Hope the Senior Meteorologist on the Weather Channel saying large hurricanes can’t turn sharply, or quickly. He died in 2002.
My thoughts are large hurricanes tend to bend to turn. They go to the left, or middle to turn.
This still could impact New York City.
Thank you for explaining this all so well. There is just so much information out there and not all of it is credible, and you’ve become a reliable source. I’ve heard many of the weather terms you use, and it’s great to see you explain them! I learn something new with every update! Much appreciated!
in with the many uncertainties combined with having new record high in water temps the “projected” paths should not extend past the 5 day forecasts. simply because of the as stated by the NHC “ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY” So with that if you just take 1/2 of that and put that into play you will get something that’s very different in these long range models of 7 days plus! which the unfortunate is I think this leads to be more harm for many are unfortunately ignorant to gain the true understanding. The truth lies in the fact of CHANGE which change is a constant. THE ways of Lee have yet to seen by any and naturally will come in due time as time gives time also tells. EMBRACE your gift of your own ability change where your given attributes does make a difference in the combination where together we become & equal one. Life is complex not complicated. The choice is easy you either take for self or give to all. No one has the ability to “survive” the life we share. Together in the same giving in our different ways we have been given to give makes a world of difference. For together we thrive. Accepting the facts we are different given the measure to communicate gives to all the same holding the mutual bond in the understanding. In understanding we form a trust where in the giving we create the interest. Self sacrifice gives to the proper order in perspective enables the gain where the given lies possible thriving in Life living in a manner that efforts changed to become effortless. Striving to give ways for harmony and peace. Just makes sense to me since I have no way of knowing what really happens after death, the risk of being sent to hell is one I rather not be sent when I have already experienced enough of hate I know it’s not possible for me to like all but hell I can respect all which is LOVE! What is their to really loose?? I don’t see anything really when the fact is we all are going to die anyways. I’d rather give efforts towards the betterment of all where life gets interesting. invigorating & intriguing. The invitation is open because alone becomes just one and lonely
besides no one gains without the addition from another Where In more we enable the possibilities it’s those who are greedy where “I’m” comes to create “im”possible. It’s easy to live life rAw where right Accompanies wrong in the center we All are truly dependent upon the side the horizontal line is the bridge that joins us all to achieve the true value in the treasure of life’s greater purpose. the key is communication to gain understanding otherwise things get mixed up and we battle in a tug of WaR that’s not how to gain the wisdom where wisdom comes by all the ways of the wise where none the wiser. Thanks for spending your time in reading my shared thoughts where too is just the same as any in the fact it’s subject to change at any given moment 😂! ✌🏼
Understanding, kindness and respect towards others goes a long way ✌️
GWAD! one sweet day I might just take the time to proof read before I hit send or post! maybe lol but I have faith you get the point. y’all have a good day and remember a simple smile could make a huge difference in another ones life. please don’t judge maybe even take the time and just ask what has happened…. see I think everyone just want the same at the end of the day which is peace and rest. We can all help towards that by giving respect you might even be surprised to find how much better you yourself begin to feel! cause & effect come from a neg & pos at the core of all. remember that.
Have a great day 😊
Hurricane Floyd 1999. Hurricane Irene. Hurricane Sandy 2012.
There’s no way it’s going to turn so sharply north, and miss the east coast. That’s why I’m thinking tracks of Hurricane Floyd 1999. Hurricane Irene 2011. or, Hurricane Sandy 2012.
The thing is that this storm will be slowing down substantially. The forecast cone may be misleading in that not all the points are an equal amount of time apart… an example that might fit is that Dorian suddenly turned north toward the Carolinas after tracking toward Florida, but it had previously stalled over the Bahamas.
Joesph B. It CAN definitely make an apparent sharp turn north, but the Devil is in the details. Right now Lee is just creeping along WNW because it is, for the most part, cut off from any significant steering currents. The Atlantic ridge to its north is weak at best so its forward momentum has slowed to 9mph as per the latest NHC update. The question is how much WNW momentum will it have and how far S will he be when he feels the influence of the incoming trough. If he is still moving at his current pace then once Lee begins to feel the tough it will make it look like its making a “sharp turn” as it begins to come north. However, IF Lee were to regain some forward momentum; then feel the troughs influence, then its forward momentum would limit just how “sharp” a turn he takes because of his inertia. Like a car making a sharp turn at 10mph vs 25mph, how much further west the car travels before completing the turn would be different due to its increased inertia at the higher speed. IMHO What will determine if Lee makes a direct landfall in the NE will be if he misses the trough like the euro hinted at yest at 12z. This would give the N Atlantic ridge room to amplify again behind the departing trough which would then cause the steering flow to be more N and maybe even NNW briefly. Over the next 2-3days, Lee will have to trend on the south side of the current NHC cone of uncertainty for this to happen IMHO.
as of 09/12. no turn yet.
Your page, along with NHC, is all I use, refer to, and recommend for any tropical information and updates.
I want to thank you for your “understandable” detail that you provide for every system. Furthermore, I applaud your liberal encouragement, to use your expertise, for the purpose to share your knowledge with others; free of monetary subscriptions or implied intellectual theft if done.
With that said, what is the difference between a “ridge” and a “trough”?
Not a meteorologist, but a Ridge is area of elongated HIGH PRESSURE while a trough is area of elongated LOW PRESSURE.. Hope that helps…
Thanks for your reply.
Excellent graphics and maps, along with explanation.
Thanks for the link.
Where is the next update? Those of us in New England want to know
Levi – you still out there? Maine and Atlantic Canada very much anticipate your next update. 🙂
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