Thanks for all of the birthday wishes yesterday!
Invest 95L is now centered just north of the Yucatan, and remains a broad and elongated area of low pressure. A large lobe remains over the Yucatan, with another lobe of vorticity located near the convective activity which is all off to the northeast of the Yucatan Channel. The system is getting sheared from the west, and the circulation needs to tighten before it can be classified as a tropical storm. The NHC has had to up their chances for development to “high”, and we may yet get this named Rina before it gets absorbed into a front within 48 hours. This front will drag 95L northeastwards in the general direction of northern Florida, though the worst weather associated with this system will be affecting all of the Florida Peninsula ahead of the center’s arrival. Again, Florida will be experiencing tropical storm conditions regardless of whether the invest is named. TS-force winds are already being observed in the Florida Straights and the Yucatan Channel. Wind shear won’t allow 95L to strengthen much beyond moderate tropical storm strength if it does get named, and heavy rain will be the main story with this system. It will be deepening baroclinically as it moves up the eastern seaboard and becomes part of a monster extratropical low over New England later this week.
Looking ahead, 95L may be one of the last significant systems of the season. The MJO will still be around for a little while and the Caribbean is much warmer than normal, so there is still a chance for the Caribbean to spawn some low pressure areas even through November, but if we don’t get anything by Halloween, then the season will be pretty close to over. Caribbean folks always have to be on the lookout until December, but don’t expect a whole lot of activity from here on out. It’s been a deadly year, but I think we got off lucky again overall. Irene was the only truly bad storm this season.
We shall see what happens!