• Current Storms
  • Aircraft Recon
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Forecast Models
  • Analysis Tools
  • About
Register | Login | Settings
Support this site:

patreon
Add our blog feed to your favorite reader.

Advertisement

Recent Posts

  • [Tuesday Afternoon] Dangerous Hurricane Michael Less than 24 Hours from Landfall
  • [Monday Evening] Michael Intensifying Quickly — Life-Threatening Event Coming for Northeast Gulf Coast
  • [Sunday Evening] Michael Forms; Expected to be a Strengthening Hurricane and Hit the Florida Panhandle Wednesday
  • Tropical Storm Expected to Form and Hit Central-Eastern Gulf Coast Next Week
  • Thursday Evening Update on Hurricane Florence and the Rest of the Tropics

Posts by Date

August 2012
S M T W T F S
« Jul   Sep »
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  

Archives

  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • May 2018
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • February 2015
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • March 2014
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • December 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011

Ernesto to Make Landfall Tonight as a Hurricane

   Posted by Levi at 2:11pm on August 7, 2012

Ernesto is now deepening again after a delay yesterday when its small, fragile core collapsed and allowed some dry air into the circulation, forcing Ernesto to rebuild from scratch. The pattern is very conducive in the western Caribbean for intensification, but Ernesto got a little too excited too fast, and had to reset. The pressure is now falling again, down to 988mb, and Ernesto should easily attain hurricane-force winds before landfall near Chetumel, Mexico late tonight. Ernesto’s core is still small, but his spiral bands expanded yesterday and have broadened the wind field of the storm as a whole, so a large area of rain and TS-force winds will be slamming Mexico and Belize as the center comes ashore. Ernesto will be weakened by the crossing of the Yucatan, but will likely restrengthen some on the other side in the Bay of Campeche, possibly back to hurricane strength if it moves far enough north to get more time over water. However, the 2nd landfall will occur relatively quickly, not allowing much time for intensification. This will be a classic double hit for Mexico, with flooding rains probably being a bigger problem for them than the winds.

In the rest of the Atlantic, we have ex-Florence and Invest 92L in the central Atlantic. The models are not excited about either system, and develop nothing in the Atlantic during the next 10 days. The GFS and CMC hint that the Gulf of Mexico will remain somewhat active after Ernesto leaves, with upper ridging and some low-level disturbances possibly making some noise during the next 8 days, but right now no immediate or significant threats are apparent.

The MJO is forecasted to move deeply into phases 1 and 2 over the next two weeks, supporting an active Atlantic overall, and the GFS has been bullish on many Cape Verde waves that it has moving off of Africa during that time. As promised pre-season, the African wave train is strong this year, but will have trouble generating storms in the deep tropics, and these waves are more likely to develop after they get north of 20N and farther west. We will have to watch for some of these to sneak up on us closer to our back yard. Overall, there are no immediate development threats after Ernesto leaves.

We shall see what happens!


7 comments

Register and login to post comments easier:

  • Register
    • Login

    Post Archives:

    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • May 2018
    • October 2017
    • September 2017
    • August 2017
    • July 2017
    • June 2017
    • November 2016
    • October 2016
    • September 2016
    • August 2016
    • July 2016
    • June 2016
    • May 2016
    • October 2015
    • September 2015
    • August 2015
    • July 2015
    • June 2015
    • May 2015
    • February 2015
    • October 2014
    • September 2014
    • August 2014
    • July 2014
    • June 2014
    • May 2014
    • March 2014
    • October 2013
    • September 2013
    • August 2013
    • July 2013
    • June 2013
    • May 2013
    • April 2013
    • March 2013
    • December 2012
    • October 2012
    • September 2012
    • August 2012
    • July 2012
    • June 2012
    • May 2012
    • March 2012
    • February 2012
    • January 2012
    • December 2011
    • November 2011
    • October 2011
    • September 2011

    Jump to the top of this page


    Copyright © 2012-2018 Tropical Tidbits, All Rights Reserved.
    Contact info: levicowan@tropicaltidbits.com