Bubbling Tropics to Bring Heavy Rain to Florida and SE U.S.
The tropics continue to be active in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula, where a weak monsoonal gyre is developing as expected, promoting moderate thunderstorms over the peninsula and the northwest Caribbean. This gyre appears to consist of a string of lows, oriented SSW to NNE. Surface observations indicate a weak low east of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, and another one near Merida, Mexico. A third low may be developing against the pressure gradient just north of the Yucatan Channel under the influence of a mid-level disturbance. This new, northern-most low will likely become the main center of the system as it rotates a bit to the northwest during the next couple days to a position due north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Low pressure will likely consolidate a little more in this location and then begin drifting northeastward on Tuesday into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Now that we have a disturbance to track, it is apparent that environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for tropical development. The system is large, and will take days to organize. In addition, the subtropical jetstream is racing over the southern Gulf of Mexico, imparting 30-40kt of shear on the region. This will be lifting closer to the north gulf coast during the coming days under the influence of passing shortwaves to the north and building convection to the south. The resulting pattern aloft will be divergent, supporting low pressure development, but still sheared, favoring a heavily east-weighted storm system. This pattern is typical of early June. Tropical storms have formed under similar conditions in this location, but they are usually weak, with most or all of their convection east and north of the center of circulation. With the CMC now being the only global model depicting a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, and the environmental setup being obviously marginal, the probability for significant tropical development is rather low. A broad, sheared system is expected, with gradual deepening as it moves northeastward in a few days, but with winds mainly below tropical storm force.
The future track of this system is likely to be similar to many early-season tropical disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico. The shortwave currently moving into the Mississippi Valley is not expected to be able to capture the low as far south as it is, but it will help it start gaining latitude over the next two days. By Tuesday, the nose of the mid-level sub-equatorial ridge along 20°N over the northern Caribbean is expected to impart a slow northeastward motion to the low towards Florida. On Thursday, a new shortwave trough will move into the Mississippi Valley, and this is expected to accelerate the system northeastwards across the northern Florida Peninsula sometime Thursday Night. Heavy rainfall is expected to be the main threat as a diffluent flow aloft allows a broad area of convection to develop east of the low center, and rainfall amounts may exceed 10 inches in parts of central/southern Florida. After crossing Florida, height rises near Bermuda in the wake of the previous shortwave should keep the system fairly close to the coastline of the southeastern United States. The ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles are in closest agreement with this forecast. Baroclinic influences of the new trough to the northwest of the system will likely enhance rainfall on its northern side, affecting the Georgia and the Carolinas on Friday. The western and northern Bahamas are also expected to continue receiving rainfall on the southeastern flank of the low during this time.
Overall, a broad, messy system is expected to move out of the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and up the eastern seaboard of the United States this week. Heavy rainfall, with storm totals in excess of 10 inches in southern/central Florida, is expected to be the main hazard. Chances for development into a tropical storm are slim, and even if development occurs, winds will not be a significant threat.
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Thanks Levi for the video posting.
I live in Florida, north of Tampa. We need the rain in the area, so this could be a huge help to that.
Take care and keep up the good work.
Glad to hear rain is needed. Hopefully you don’t get too much all at once!
So you were chasing tornados? I hope you’ll share some of your experiences!
Thanks Levi! Know you have a lot on your plate right now and appreciate you taking the time to put this together.
Keep up the good work Levi.
This was 1 of your best videos. You were reasonable, didn’t overhype it and gave great detail. Nicely done Levi.
levi you always are trying to send a storm to florida…you hate us that much..i sure hope you are wrong and do me a favor leave florida out of this hurricane season.. cheryl
Is is absolutely certain that the trough will pick it up to the northeast? Or could it just drift up to Louisiana and Texas?
Excuse my french, but I have to say, “You are the Sh*t”. I’ve been watching your forecasts and predictions for the last few years since Katrina hit here in LA or maybe Gustav, and you have been more accurate than most, if not all, of our local weather teams here in Baton Rouge. I remember being completely shocked to learn that you were a high school kid way back and even more shocked to learn that you were in freaking Alaska doing a better job forecasting than the people with it in their own backyard. So basically keep up the good work and I hope you get to do whatever it is you want to do.
Oh yeah it’s June 06 and basically your prediction of a Thursday evening landfall in Florida is looking pretty spot on. On June 02 their was only a mention of no tropical development expected this week! HAHAHA
pleae don’t give levi nothing else to swell his head..he has been wrong so many times in the last 5 years..you all treat him like he is ahead of the national hurricane center..gee people lighten up hes just a kid..
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