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You posted some good ideas about the MJO and potential for a July TC. Unfortunately that u decided to downplay this potential, it makes you look less reliable if this does develop.
Long-range forecasting is a broad-brushing art that attempts to communicate possible threats that are still a week or more away. Once a physically trackable system like 95L develops, I call them as I see them. If I adjusted my short-term forecast to fit my long-term forecast, I would be being dishonest.
Levi, you extremely reliable. Anonymous doesn’t know what he’s talking about; I’ve been following you for three years and you do a great job with tropical news and updates.
The information here is valuable, looks like Chantal is a force to be reckoned with.
a tropical wave could bring similar flooding to the Caribbean Islands. The hype I was talking about is the Weather Channel saying that Chantal was likely to be near Florida next Tuesday. Talk about pressing the panic button…
That is a week away and Chantal has a whole bunch of things going against it between islands, dry air and shear. It’s not personal if someone has a different opinion. So many storms have died in the eastern Caribbean this time of year only to be followed by later ones which flourished in the more moist environment. Levi pointed out in his post that Chantal is bringing moist air westward. Let’s not attack each other and certainly not do so to Levi who puts all the work into this forum.
I was wondering if you all could send me weather update.
Lol , Anonymous might be one of the run of the mill weather forcasters trying to figure out why you have such great success predicting storms and there paths. Pay him no mind and keep doing what you do best, keeping us informed! Sour Grapes!!.
I think the hype around Chantal is overdone since the Caribbean Cane shredder is extra hostile now. I think she is moistening the path for later storms.
I’ve been reading your forecasts and lurking for several years. Don’t let negative people bring you down.
Chantal could bring flood rains to the islands of Hispanolia and be a threat down the road. Not a good idea to give people a flase sense of security.
There are negative ideas here, only objective reasoning. Now I have to read through hundreds of posts like “Chantal is decoupling , too much unfavorable conditions”. People have become complacent because there has not been a decent July TC in some time. In my opinion, there will be unfavorable periods but the land interaction is the key here will see where we go from there.
I enjoy your site. Please keep up the good work! Your videos are very educational. People just need to remember that weather forecasting is never perfect and no one is ever 100%. As long as you give the facts, that’s all you can do.
Remember the Weather Channel is in it to make money and nothing more.They are the ones who named winter storms,I believe they also called sub-tropical Sandy (Super storm Sandy.)More hype ,more people watching.higher ratings more money from advertisers.
Greta job Levi
I have supported the notion of naming winter storms for a long time, but only the strongest, crippling storms. TWC named every little winter storm just because a few inches of snow or some mixed precip was falling. If they used the same standards to name tropical systems we would already be in the Greek letters.
They should have had far more strict requirements on names. There were 6 maybe 7 storms that warranted names. They should have had a designation equivalent to invest, tropical depression, then names for the most dangerous and most crippling of winter storms so than the people understood that the coming winter storm was much above and beyond the typical winter storm.
Leave it to TWC to overdo a good idea to the point of irrelevance.
And thanks Levi. It looks like your prediction regarding the MDR is spot on.
As always, a great report Levi.
To those that are comparing Weather Underground with the Weather Channel, remember, The Weather Channel bought Weather Underground in July 2012. http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/weather-channel-acquiring-weather-underground/ It is interesting that The Weather Channel is about half the size of Weather Underground (50 million unique views vs 100 million unique views per month). Let’s be happy that The Weather Channel has not changed Weather Underground much.
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