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July 2013

98L Likely to Develop, but Will Struggle to Survive – Many Days From Land

   Posted by Levi at 12:01am on July 24, 2013

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  • Dave P. says:

    Excellent job Levi/ Just curious why the GFS model up to Saturday night showed this system as a hurricane hitting the Leeward Islands and was very bullish on it for several days,then Sunday just quit showing it on that run.Why the back and forth?

    • Levi says:

      Models aren’t perfect. That’s why we don’t latch onto them, especially early before we have a physically trackable disturbance. Better judgement now suggests a weaker system. Every day wild things happen on 2-week model forecasts that never occur in reality.

  • Brandon says:

    Thanks Levi

  • Jose Rivera says:

    As always, you are excelent on your comments. You have an easy way form to explain the atmosphere conditions and other related information to weather, specifically to those things related to invest, storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic. Congratulations and keep doing this great job. Regards from Puerto Rico.

  • Andrew says:

    Great post. Very informative. Even if this storm doesn’t do anything major, it is helping to moisten the atmosphere for the big ones that will begin after August (give or take).

    Is it just my imagination or do storms that endure hostile environments and hold together seem to be far more dangerous when the environment becomes favorable?

    Also, with the A/B high as it is, early developing AEWs coming of Africa north of 10N will have a hard time recurving around 50-60W as they do in most years.

    Just my opinions…I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.
    Thanks for the post (AD)

    • Levi says:

      “Tenacious” storms can sometimes be more likely to strengthen when conditions improve, simply because something was allowing them to survive before in hostile conditions.

      Regarding SAL, African dust is less of a problem this year because the African Sahel is wetter, so less dust is being kicked up into the atmosphere.

  • Andrew says:

    Levi: have you noticed how quickly the SAL is fading?
    Do you know why that is?

  • Andrew says:

    Don’t storm that form near the Cape Verde islands so far north as this TD has at north of 13 north tend tend to turn out to harmlessly out to sea?

    • Dave P. says:

      AS Levi mentioned in the blog,The Bermuda High is exceptionally strong for this time of year,Which in this case will keep Dorian on a West by Northwest track.

  • harry kane says:

    Levi, Does this storm look like it will hit Florida or keep a westward aim on gulf states? Are there any fronts projected to enter the picture and recurve the thing? Also, seems like everyone is saying it will stay weak near the greater antilles. Is shear predicted to be strong in that area? Seems if a storm is progressing west along with a very high pressure area over it, that would be a good enviornment for the thing to strengthen?

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