Great ^ Thanks
Could This Be Tropical Storm Arthur ?
Levi – Thanks for the insightful analysis regarding the upcoming 1st week of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Nice pick up on the dropping ULL. Two other factors that will perhaps work in tandem, is the fact that the quite warm waters of the far E. Pacific have aided in the ITCZ to migrate a bit more northward which ultimately bore Hurricane Andrea. As Andrea now rapidly weakens, surface inflow from the Southeast becomes more lax and with time should become westerly. This alone should help significantly aid moisture to stream into the W. Caribbean and furthermore increase convergence over the West Caribbean. Depending on the extent of influence and its orientation, the upper low that you picked up on, may well further help draw this moisture northward. We’ll see if that ULL reflects lower in the atmosphere down to the 500mb level in the event that cyclogenesis were to begin to occur to its east. Finally, the ITCZ has been suppressed southward over N. South America, may equally respond to the rising UL heights over the W. Caribbean. I would guess that the ITCZ will drift further north during this brief period of a week or two and perhaps further aid potential cyclogenesis by virtue of the added vorticity accompanying any westward moving waves. Though it wouldn’t shock me if no named system came out of this potential tropical soup, I’d be nearly just as inclined to suggest that perhaps 2 tropical cyclones could originate from such a setup…. all before going quiet in the Atlantic – for a while thereafter (baring some subtropical blob that might form off some old front and immediately move to the NE).
oops…… Perhaps Freudian tropical slip regarding “Andrea” mentioned above; actually meant current Pacific Storm “Amanda”. (though the irony is that the E. Gulf may see a deja vu of Andrea, which formed June 5 2013 out of a similar setup)
Just watched your “Tropical Moisture Likely to Invade W. Caribbean and Eastern Gulf During First Week of June” video. I love weather, but admittedly have minimal knowledge.
In saying that, I am taking my family down to Sanibel, Island Florida. We arrive on the 14th and stay through the 21st. May I ask whether the models you put credence in show any modest/substantial tropical development during this time period?
Thanks in advance for any insight you could provide.
The weather 2-3 weeks in advance is nearly impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy. Only the most broad and general of patterns can be anticipated on occasion at that range.
When it comes to tropical cyclones, model forecasts of development beyond even 1 day must be weighed by meteorologists to determine whether there is actually a significant chance of development. The local NWS forecast offices in Florida will usually discuss potential weather events up to 7 days in advance, and I would consult their forecasts before making a trip during the tropical season.
I think I speak for the majority of readers in that your insight is most appreciated!
Ever thought of doing a daily or every couple of days update? Love to hear your updates and thoughts on situations that are constantly evolving.
Thank you for all of your insight. It is greatly appreciated!!
I post more frequent updates when there are actual tropical disturbances to track close to land. When looking for development several days in advance when there is not yet a disturbance, there is not enough new information to constitute daily updates.
Love your site Levi! Will be visiting frequently this upcoming hurricane season. I live in Tampa, Fl so tropical updates with excellent analysis and insight is of importance to me. Plus, I love weather:-)
One week later and it looks like you nailed that forecast! Looking forward to your next post.
I’m looking forward to another post I would love if you did a weekly update.
Does the Bermuda High seem about normal for this time of year?or is it stronger and extends further west then normal?
Living down here in S Fla you certainly nailed the wet weather forecast.
Looks like we might have a potentially small issue coming off the coast of S Carolina.
I do like the manner in which you have framed this situation plus it really does give us a lot of fodder for thought. Nonetheless, from everything that I have observed, I just hope as the opinions pile on that people continue to be on point and don’t embark upon a soap box associated with the news du jour. Still, thank you for this excellent piece and though I can not really concur with this in totality, I value the standpoint.
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from end of feburary thorgh next November
there will be real real bad tropical storms
and major major hurricanes in gulf of mexico
eastern Caribbean and Caribbean
the waters are real real hotters
96 shutters will be open
breath breath breath breath
over warm waters
this will be for good
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