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August 2016

[Monday Evening] Invest 99L a Possible Long-Term Threat; Fiona and TD #7 not Threats to Land

   Posted by Levi at 9:22pm on August 22, 2016




  • Jeremy Montague says:

    Nice analysis, Levi…you’re the best! A nervous few days ahead, to be sure!

  • Dave says:

    To bad you cant block these idiots. As usual good job Levi,been listening to your updates since the beginning.

  • BeachFoxx says:


    This is BeachFoxx from WU, I cannot log in?? I input my email address but did not get a link for new password. Can you assist? You know storm season brings all us old timers out! 🙂

    • Levi says:

      Hey Beach,

      I think there’s a problem with WordPress sending email to anyone, period. I’ll work on it tonight. Sorry about this.

  • Rainer says:

    Hi Levi,

    Is there any chance that this 99-L could move up the east coast and give substancial rain?????? we are in an extreme drought and we need it.

    • Levi says:

      Technically there’s a chance, but we’re talking about 7-10 days out here, so there’s no realistic way to know.

  • Rainer says:

    Thanks Levi!

  • BeachFoxx says:

    Thanks Levi!!

  • Dave Lesher says:

    Dave here at the summit of Canaan Mtn., WV. Loving a good hurricane season ahead and hoping for an even greater snowy winter. Check my site at

  • ossqss says:

    Have viewed a few earlier runs pushing this system,developed,into the Gulf over Florida. Was that from the high pressure ridge growing more than now anticipated on later runs?

    Nice evaluation as usual Levi. I hope folks are hitting your tip bucket. They should as I am going to do!

    Can’t hurt to get a few more blades in that server 😉

    • Levi says:

      Thanks a lot Ed. Yes that ridging pattern over the east coast has strengthened during the last week of August on the models. We’ll have to keep a close eye on it.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Thank you for your great detailed explanations. They are so very helpful. Whenever there is a possible storm out there, it is always good to hear your take on things–the voice of rational analysis!
    Hope things are going well for you with your studies, etc.

  • Stefanie Henry says:

    That was very informative and helpful. Thank you.

  • sunlinepr says:

    Levi…. Could this thery or comment be true or posible?

    Models predict acording to the weather database behind them. Based on that data, computer algorithms try to predict the future behavior of Invests. If this is true…. Is global warming of the Saharan Air Layer the missing factor behind the uncertainty of the models? Are the hot air thermals of the Sahara stronger, higher in altitude, moving more metric tons of dust… being a factor not considered or present in the model database? If true… That would explain the uncertainty being observed predicting cyclogenesis.

    Thanks for your analysis

    • Levi says:

      Well Saharan dust is not included in most of our models, and there is research that suggests it can change model predictions of tropical systems. However, it likely isn’t an overwhelming factor, and matters less and less the farther west systems get in the Atlantic.

  • Paul Landerman says:

    I’ve heard no sound at my end. It is not necessary. Absolutely love watching your designs on hurricanes.

  • Lorna says:

    We need an update Levi

  • Phyllis says:

    Levi, what are the chances at this time of this hitting South Louisiana?

    • Hurricane Hal says:

      Phyllis- I have been getting a bit nervous for Louisiana. The latest model runs seem to push this system (Hermine) farther west. The Euro (12z) model run moved west about 150 miles today, and the 18z run of GFS model has a weak system…but the track takes it more towards TX/LA border. Obviously, S Louisiana does not need anymore rain!

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