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October 2016

[Tuesday Evening] Matthew Moving Over Cuba – Hurricane Warnings for All of the Bahamas and Watches for Florida

   Posted by Levi at 12:32am on October 5, 2016

Hurricane Matthew is currently moving over eastern Cuba, after passing over western Haiti early this morning. As expected, the mountainous terrain has disrupted Matthew’s core, and some weakening has occurred. However, Matthew remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph as of the 11 pm NHC advisory on Tuesday.

Matthew will move into the southern Bahamas on Wednesday and into the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire Bahamas. Matthew will likely need time to recover from its passage over Cuba, and may be in a weakened state for about 24 hours after emerging from the high terrain. However, it will remain a very dangerous storm for the Bahamas, where storm surge and prolonged periods of hurricane force winds near the core are possible. Given the low shear and high SST environment that Matthew will be tracking through, it is possible that some strengthening will occur in the northwest Bahamas. For now, the NHC expects Matthew to roughly maintain its current intensity through the Bahamas.

By late Thursday and Friday Matthew is expected to approach the east coast of Florida. It is difficult to know whether landfall will actually occur at this time. The exact track could greatly change the impacts for specific towns along the coastline. Regardless, Matthew is expected to be in proximity to Florida, and significant impacts are now likely for portions of the state, and a hurricane warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida.

Matthew is expected to move northward near the east coast of Florida during Friday and then the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday while weakening some. It is still too soon to say how close Matthew may get to Georgia and the Carolinas, or any other points northward from there along the east coast. Recent trends suggest that a trough expected to turn Matthew northeastward will not dig as deeply during the weekend, and may result in Matthew turning more sharply eastward during that time. This could carry Matthew on a trajectory away from the eastern seaboard, but it’s too early to say how Matthew may impact the eastern seaboard north of Georgia.

This remains a difficult forecast due to Matthew’s track expected to lie close to the southeast U.S. coastline. Impacts expected for your specific local area may change over the next few days. Stay informed via the National Hurricane Center, your local NWS forecast office, and local emergency management officials.

Latest Information from the National Hurricane Center




  • Hoff511 says:

    Wow. I’m scared, but I am pretty sure I will be fine. Thank you so much for doing what you do. I share your tidbits with everyone I can. It is crazy I have been following your tidbits for many years. This is the first time a major is actually threatening my doorstep. We’ll wait and see, but I am prepared. What a storm.

  • Rick Billings says:

    Thank you, Levi. Matthew certainly has the attention of millions from the Caribbean all the way up the eastern seaboard.

  • Mark says:

    Thanks for the great information, longtime lurker on wu and have followed you to here! Lifelong resident of wilm, n.c.. been thru them all! Please keep up the good work and maybe you can get them to stop all that bickering over at WU!!

  • Patrick Sullivan says:

    Thank you, Levi. Very informative as usual!

  • Gillis T Melancon says:

    Excellent analysis and summary. Thank you for your public service.

  • Carol Mahler says:

    Thank you, as always, Levi! Your detailed analysis & coverage of this storm is, as ever, reassuring and complete. I live about an hours drive away (inland) from Daytona, so I am watching the path of the storm, the NHC bulletins, and your videos. Until Matthew clears the area here, one way or the other, my plan is thought out, and my own preparations (gas in the car, etc., etc)are mostly completed. Thank you for being so specific in your explanations and for your emphasis on safety. Lastly, thank you for the gift of your time and sharing your incredibly vast knowledge of tropical systems!

  • cj38 says:

    Thank you, Levi. I appreciate your knowledge and delivery. Sitting here in Nassau County, Florida and hoping for the best for all. Prepared as can be. Hoping a little hop to the east any minute now. Your concern for those in harm’s way in Haiti and the islands is most genuine. I, too, will be making a donation to your site. I want you to be able to continue to provide us with your input as long as you are willing to do it. Thank you. It must take a great deal of your time. I agree with the others, you are doing a most valuable public service. Take care,

  • Zippy says:

    Thanks for the update. Keep on Trackin’.

  • Staffan in Thailand says:

    Very impressive update!

  • GatorFamily says:

    Thank you from the Vero Beach, FL area. Like others have said, your posts are so helpful and informative and I sure appreciate hearing you explain the models and how it all interacts.

    I didn’t realize anyone from FSU knew this much.

  • John Sweitzer says:

    Very informative video- thank you!

  • Reid says:

    You seem a little hypomanic, Levi. 🙂

    No worries though, this is the storm of a lifetime.

    I would appreciate it if you would discuss the potential danger to the coast, due to the shape of the coastline, and where this is coming in around Georgia and southern South Carolina. Is there a point combined with the angle the storm is moving where the surge could be greater then normally expected, and which is not being discussed adequately in the press right now?

    Thanks, as always

  • Joe says:

    Another forecaster was mentioning a “rogue” system east of North Carolina, moving west and giving North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic lots of rain even if Matthew does not. And has anyone noticed all of the action going on east of Matthew, including Nicole to the northeast? Seems like all of this is going to get together in the “days to come” to create a ruckus over the eastern seaboard. Something to watch, for sure.

  • midi says:

    Levi, awesome site and very informative. I learned more about what influences hurricanes from your Tuesday night update than from any other source. Sent in a small donation to show my appreciation.

  • Nell says:

    Based on this incredibly informative video. I’m very surprised Savannah/Chatham County is waiting to call an evacuation.

  • Anonymous says:

    Thank you Levi from Fort Lauderdale, Fl. Very informative and well explained.

  • Joe Red says:

    Doesn’t TS Nicole have any impact on track of Matthew? Why not?

  • Jon Elu says:

    Thanks Levi…WPB here 1/2 mile from coast. I appreciate your work and time. Posted your blog on FB and obviously Im about to get smacked by Matthew. I will take video and send it to you for your blog if you like. You have been way ahead of the local media and I look forward to you being the Director of NHC one day. You are very good at talking about complicated meteorological subjects in a way that the layman will understand. Thats a gift.

  • Lincoln says:

    Where is the video? I saw it before, than came to show my wife and its gone !!

  • Gerry says:

    Missed the vid, but this morning the track of Matthew has undergone a large correction. 24hrs ago NE, Cape Cod looked to be in the path of Matthew, and the associated rain would have been welcome.

    Today the 5AM NHC track keeps the center east of the outer banks and it even looks to be tracking south of due east.

    As to FL coast Matthew looks to be stronger but barely off shore.

    • Gerry says:

      Just looked at the 06z GFS and that has Matthew getting to the SC/NC, still off shore, then heading south-east then back to just off-shore of Miami!

      That ridge must have strongly filled in and the trough over the great lakes must have given way. I’d love to see Levi show us what the models have picked up on.

      Massive change in just 12 hour!

      • Bellwater99 says:

        He said it was due to the trough changing more to a zonal flow

        • Gerry says:

          I went to bed last night thinking the eastern NE area would get some drought relief on Sunday, and now it seems clear that is not going to happen.

          On the plus side RI will get a massive swell and the surf will be clean. I’d rather the rain.

          • Bellwater99 says:

            This might change if the storm moves a bit faster and catches the short trough, which is what cmc is forecasting.

  • Bellwater99 says:

    Why is the recon plane avoiding land? Are the mountains too high or do they not have clearance to enter?

    • Gerry says:

      I believe the interaction with the ground increases turbulence.

    • Levi says:

      It may be both counts. Recon will usually avoid flying over any landmass while they are inside a storm. It’s more turbulent and dangerous.

  • Jeff Zemlik says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but the “cone of uncertainty” center line is just the mean average of all the model runs? The center of the cone isn’t a foretasted track, right?

    • Levi says:

      It’s the NHC forecast, which is not always close to the model mean, but it is the actual forecast track. The cone represents the average NHC forecast error over the last 5 years.

  • j cook says:

    Love the site Levi. But where’s the video for tuesday nights blog? I’m super bummed because I need your knowledge. Help me find the new tuesday post.
    JB Melb Fl

  • joe says:

    You can get a video here for today from his buddy Mark at I keep up with Levi and Mark as they are the best.

  • Richard says:

    What’s your take on the GFS model indicating a retrograding storm back to just east of south Florida by Monday?

  • Saul says:

    On the coast in North Palm Beach FL. Thank you for all your blogs and updates. Heading inland in the morning with our cats. Wish you all a safe passage

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