Torrential rains from Harvey continue to produce catastrophic flooding in SE Texas, especially the Houston metro area. Thoughts and prayers go out to the residents there, as current rainfall totals could still be doubled during the next few days, and Harvey may not leave Texas until around Thursday. While it is still possible that Harvey will drift back over the Gulf of Mexico waters for a brief time, it is not expected to be long enough for significant reintensification of winds to occur. However, if it wasn’t clear by now, flooding is the primary threat to life and property. If you live in these areas experiencing flooding, avoid driving your vehicle, as the vast majority of flooding-related deaths are drivers being caught in water and having nowhere to escape. Please be safe everyone.
Elsewhere…Invest 92L, a disturbance which has been drifting near Florida for the last several days, is developing into a well-defined area of low pressure just NE of Jacksonville. The system is highly sheared out of the west due to upper-level outflow from Harvey, but low-level thermal gradients associated with a nearby front are helping to focus thunderstorm activity not far from the low center despite the shear. An ASCAT pass from earlier today indicated that the circulation is not yet well-defined enough to call the system a tropical depression, but 92L now has a high chance of becoming one over the next day or so, and the NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (PTC10). The system is expected to gradually move northward today and Monday, nearing the South Carolina coastline. Acceleration toward the northeast is then expected near coastal North Carolina, and then out into the NW Atlantic. Given the aforementioned shear, PTC10 is not expected to intensify much in the short term, but a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal North Carolina and a portion of the South Carolina coastline. Rain and gusty winds are expected in the area regardless of development. As the storm moves out into the NW Atlantic, it may intensify as a nontropical storm, but away from land. For further details, visit hurricanes.gov.