Tropical Storm Chris is beginning to move northeastward this morning, away from the United States. Since Chris sat in the same spot for a couple days, the water beneath the storm cooled substantially on Monday, preventing Chris from intensifying more quickly. Now that the storm is moving, water beneath it will warm some today, and this should allow Chris to become a hurricane today or tonight. Some northerly shear is present, and dry air to the north is getting entrained into the circulation as a result, which will likely prevent explosive strengthening. This shear should relax a bit tomorrow, and as Chris interacts favorably with an upper-level jet while passing over the Gulf Stream, the storm should reach its peak intensity sometime Wednesday evening or night.
On Thursday, Chris will move north of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters. This, combined with increased shear, will turn Chris into a nontropical storm that will be weakening on approach to Newfoundland. However, powerful winds and heavy rains will impact Newfoundland on Thursday and perhaps into early Friday.
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